How Labour Can Stop Brexit

Unlike many on Friday I did not wake up with a sense of shock and dread. Mainly because I hadn’t been able to sleep. In my horror at what was unfolding — a Westernised democracy which was at best voting to make itself poorer and at worst was electing to ensure its demise in its current form, I could not take my eyes off the TV coverage. When the leading advocates of a leave vote began giving their first interviews that horror turned to a cold fury. It quickly became clear that those who had spent the past few months decrying ‘Project Fear’ were intent on proving it right — they had no answers to financial turmoil and national upheaval. Like dogs begging for attention after soiling a carpet when asked what they would do about the turmoil they had created all the likes of Andrea Leadsom and Liam Fox could do was appeal for calm and “reflection”. It was clear that none had actually thought through how to clean up the steaming pile of excrement they’d served up, yet still expected us to pat them on the head.

Nigel Farage then admitted the Leave campaign had been lying about a pledge to send £350 million to the NHS. Most mendacious and repugnant of all was Daniel Hannan, the snivelling demagogue who had the gall to tell us that the leave vote was not primarily about immigration and that we would be maintaining freedom of movement. I can’t wait to see Dan head up to Rotherham, Boston or Scarborough and tell Leave voters that himself.

As was inevitable, there has also been a lot of talk about “respecting the result” and “moving forward”. No, we should not do this. Unlike general elections it is not incumbent on us to accept defeat and move on. If you thought leaving the EU was a catastrophic piece of idiocy on Thursday then it remains so now. General elections see us elect a government who must attempt to govern in the interests of everyone. You accept defeat, move on and campaign for the right to rectify their mistakes at the next election. This is different, it is a decision which will have irreversible consequences lasting our lifetimes. If you think people voted for disaster because they were told lies by a collection of Britain’s slipperiest frauds and snake-oil salesman, you cannot in all good conscience make peace with them and acquiesce behind them as they carry out a fraudulent non-vision.

The problem is how. Britain has, after all spoken. Referenda may be shoddy political devices but their results have huge political potency. It is no exaggeration to say that if, as Labour MP David Lammy’s advice were accepted, and parliamentarians refused to implement the result, then we would be at risk of civil unrest. From a political viewpoint, such a move could backfire horribly by increasing support for Brexit.

Another option is another referendum, nearly three million people have signed an e-petition calling for one. Personally, I believe e-petitions to be the worst thing democracy has inflicted on us since Jeffrey Archer, but I signed this one. Not because I think we should have one however, but merely to show support for not making nice with Brexit. No, referenda are bad things on principle because they distil complex political issues which require expertise (or at least listening to those with it) to understand into binary choices which can be made for reasons which are unreflective of the actual outcomes. Leave voters who made their decision on the basis of immigration, or who did so believing talk of job losses were “scaremongering” may well discover this in the coming months. Unlike voting for a Prime Minister who promises to carry out a manifesto, there is no way for Leave voters to hold those who’ve sold them a pig in a poke to account.

From a purely practical perspective, another referendum is also a bad idea. Who can genuinely say they want to relive one of the most shameful and bitter campaigns in British political history? This time with added bile and unrest, and with an inconclusive outcome.

If blocking leaving is a non-starter and a do-over is not a feasible solution, what then? There is I think an answer, but it is one that requires Labour politicians to take leadership and all remainers to put differences aside and work together. When the Tory Party elect a new leader they will have to call a general election, providing those of us who do not accept Brexit’s necessity with an opportunity.

As I write, a number of Shadow Cabinet members are resigning in a bid to oust Corbyn. This must happen. Many of us have long objected to his leadership and thought his and his staunchest supporters’ characterisation of Britain and Labour’s history are spectacularly misguided, but it is no longer about that.

There will be loud cries and endless e-petitions calling on MPs and members to “respect Jeremy’s mandate”. Yet it is a mandate which no longer exists — it expired the moment Britain voted to leave the EU. The country Jeremy Corbyn was elected to be Leader of the Opposition of no longer exists and regardless of how you viewed Corbyn’s leadership before the referendum, the party has to decide where it stands now and how it can install the leader who can implement that. If you think that’s Jeremy, then fine, vote for him, but unless you want to leave the EU you need to make a convincing case that he can either stop Brexit or possesses the negotiating capabilities to ensure any deal done on leaving will only be a departure in name only. Regardless of where you sit on Labour’s political spectrum, there are strong reasons to think Jeremy is able to do neither — not least the evidence which has emerged of the Labour leader running a half-hearted and shambolic referendum campaign that was more interested in positioning Corbyn for the aftermath of the vote than ensuring a victory. This is more important than battles over where Labour should sit on the ideological spectrum.

Who should replace him? There are a number of strong candidates untainted by losing to Jeremy in 2015 — Dan Jarvis, Lisa Nandy, Stella Creasy. What matters more than their immediate identity however is that they run on a platform of advocating a policy of remaining within the EU in the inevitable general election.

The Liberal Democrats have already said they will adopt this as a policy, but they are now too small a party with campaigning architecture too weak to take on the task. Labour on the other hand can fight and win — if it can corral furious Remain voters into a political movement.

There are a number of reasons to think a ‘Remain’ coalition could be successful. Firstly the maths — you only need to gain the votes required to obtain a majority. Secondly, they would be facing a divided Tory Party and a divided Leave movement. Any Brexit Tory Prime Minister would have to reconcile the irreconcilable in their manifesto — the simple question, “Would you back freedom of movement from EU countries?” could tear the Leave campaign from millions of supporters.

In order to ensure victory however, Labour could not be vain or fight the election in its own interest as well as for the cause of remaining. It would likely result in a transformation of the political map, with embittered Leave voters leading to UKIP challenging Labour in the north. To counter this the party must run on a program non-Labour supporters and parties can get behind and unite with the Lib Dems to form an electoral alliance to block Brexit. The new Labour leader would have to head up a government of unity that could be supported by Lib Dems and non-tribal Tory voters disgusted by the way their party has played fast-and-loose with the country’s future. Although there would be unlikely to be many defections from the Tories to this Remain coalition, we could see something similar to the situation within the American Republican Party in relation to Donald Trump, where a significant number of Tory moderates down tools due to being conflicted over whether their party was doing the right thing in implementing Brexit. Such a party could also claim the mantle of economic responsibility. A more informal arrangement with the SNP would be necessary — with Labour still campaigning against them but with an agreement that Nicola Sturgeon’s party would back any UK government in confidence votes as long as they promised to remain in the EU and offered greater devolution.

Such a policy would also transform the calculation that Corbyn would be impossible to oust due to the membership. Firstly it would turn the contest into a referendum within the Labour Party on whether it wanted to try and block Brexit or acquiesce to it under Corbyn — one the current leader is likely to lose. Secondly, if a fraction of the 16 million people who voted to remain could be convinced to pay £3 to vote in any leadership election to make Labour the party of Remain, they would dwarf Corbyn’s base on the radical left.

It’s important to state what a victory for such an coalition would mean. It would have its own democratic mandate to overturn the referendum result. Of course there would be turmoil and resentment from leave voters, but that is where we find ourselves anyway. Such unrest is likely to occur when leave voters find out that they’ve been sold a false prospectus and that they are not going to get the things the Leave campaign promised. When people find out that freedom of movement will remain outside the EU, that immigration will not be halted or alternatively, what ending it means for trade and jobs they will be furious anyway. Those who voted for a Faragist Britain no more want to live in Dan Hannan’s libertarian one than they do an EU one. A vote for a Remain coalition could also be sold as a vote to keep the UK together, given the SNP’s determination and justification for a second referendum. That’s not to mention the jobs that are now under threat.

Britain can halt its withdrawal at any point after Article 50 is triggered until the withdrawal is made final. Advice from the House of Lords states:

“We asked our witnesses whether it was possible to reverse a decision to withdraw. Both agreed that a Member State could legally reverse a decision to withdraw from the EU at any point before the date on which the withdrawal agreement took effect.”

If Labour can pull itself together as an inclusive voice for Britain remaining in the EU, arguing that the referendum was a flawed democratic process and that only it could put the country back together then there’s a chance the party can stop Brexit happening. The problem is getting there, it will not be easy but Labour MPs, leadership candidates and members have a duty to try. To quote some of the biggest charlatans in political history, it’s time to take back control.