The Psychology of Human Misjudgement (In Football) — Pt. 2/ n
This is the second part of an ongoing series looking into examples of where an understanding of psychology can be used to give a marginal edge in decision making in football. If you missed the first part of the series, read that first for the full background, then check back here for for part 2.
Similar to the last article, below is a breakdown of five different heuristics. Each one contains an definition of what the heuristic is, a football-based example and finally a potential solution to overcoming the heuristic.
6) Curiosity Tendency
Definition: We are curious. Sometimes this can be helpful (this player’s numbers are interesting, I’ll take a deeper look…) and sometimes not so helpful (can I be the first owner to avoid relegation by spending no money? Let’s find out…). As Munger puts it “Curiosity can provide both fun and wisdom, and occasionally trouble.”
Example: Thinking that you are the one manager who can tame a player with a lot of potential, but the player has behaviour problems that could disrupt the dressing room.
Solution: Think of this through an opportunity cost lens: the player is a high upside, high risk signing. Are there other players who are more of a sure thing? Can we gather more information to move the needle closer to one direction or the other? Have similar gambles of others paid off in the past?
By recognising and analysing the decisions of the many, you can maximise the outcomes of your own decisions and minimising the number of mistakes you make.
7) Kantian Fairness Tendency
Definition: We will often act irrationally in unfair situations, as we’ve come to expect fairness from others. If we tolerate a little unfairness (e.g. having to hold the door open that little bit longer) we will be repaid in the future (e.g. someone holding the door open for us)
Example: Being bitter towards an agent because his client doesn’t want to sign a deal with us, therefore potentially souring the relationship with an important contact.
Solution: Again, looking at life through an opportunity costs lens can work well here. Remove yourself from the situation, think through any action before making it and then act appropriately after considering the options. Just because this client will not sign, does not mean others in the future will not either— and by not acting aggressively means you’ve kept a productive relationship together.
8) Envy/Jealousy Tendency
Definition: We feel envy/get jealous when we see others with things that we want. Envy is a pointless emotion that was necessary when there was plenty of scarcity within the world, and it helped us survive — now it just makes people unhappy.
Example: Club X just bought an all action, box-to-box central midfielder. We need our own, and we’ll pay over the odds to get him.
Solution: Slow. Down. Even just acknowledging you’re feeling envy can help derail any potentially irrational behaviour. How Munger deals with envy is eloquently summed up in the quote below:
“Missing out on some opportunity never bothers us. What’s wrong with someone getting a little richer than you? It’s crazy to worry about this.”
It’s ok for other teams to sign good players, it shouldn’t bother you because it’s out of your control (for the most part). Trust the process instead.
9) Reciprocation Tendency
Definition: We have a very strong leaning towards returning (dis)favours, regardless of whether the value exchanged is equal or not. We feel uncomfortable if we receive a favour, a feeling that lasts until we can repay it.
Example: Receiving a player on loan from a rival team, which makes you feel you must reciprocate by selling them one of your better players in the future if they were to bid for him.
Solution: Again, acknowledging the reciprocation tendency is an important step. It’s not a bad thing to have good relationship with other teams, but ensuring that the value exchanged is equal is important.
On the flip-side, you can gain value by trying to prey on the reciprocation tendency of others by offering something small, in return for something disproportionately large in value.
10) Influence-from-Mere Association Tendency
Definition: We are pattern seekers, and seek help making our decisions from patterns we have detected. This pattern association can very easily resolve a given decision.
Example: Not wanting to pursue a given player because the chief scout has said that he’s not good enough for [reasons], although the data shows the opposite to the scout’s [reasons].
Solution: Measure your scouts — I highly recommend this excellent piece by Omar Chaudhuri — and you can adjust how you take the information they offer into account in any decision made. Just because the scout is associated with recruiting players because of their background doesn’t make them a good judge of talent.
By seeing how well your scouts predict player development and the successfulness of new signings, you can weight their judgement more in your final decision through data, and less merely from association.
I plan on writing further about this topic in the coming weeks. In the meantime I’d love to hear your thoughts on this piece, find me over on Twitter: @Worville!
