Hi Nic, I think you are a brave man to use Taleb heuristics on Medium. He might read it too. ;-)
Is Lindy-effect the proper approach to the question if Bitcoin will last? I think that it might end up not being the right question to pose.
Perhaps a better approach would be to assess which assumptions are behind cryptocurrency (or blockchain technology) that might end up being flawed (or rephrased fragile after all). These are the Black Swans to watch. For instance, historically trust in currencies is often related to the behaviour of its issuer, as human nature leads often to those in power end becoming corrupted. Something to realise in the current ICO-frenzy. Likewise it is not so much the maximum amount of a currency that makes it last, but more availability/easiness to use it and general cyclical movements in economic confidence. But now I’ll probably get a lot of hatred for these observations. :-)
The tinkering going on in the cryptocurrency world is however a plus for the anti-fragile road. It are interesting times. Thanks again for your nice article.
