The Future of Usage in the NBA
Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant both got exactly what they wanted. People hated Kevin Durant, people spurned his decision to go to a title favorite, but at the end of the day, he was sick of finishing in 2nd place. He hated LeBron getting all the accolades and attention as he fell time and time again. He was a number 2 overall draft pick, multiple time MVP runner up, he was a Finals runner up, and by the end of his tenure in OKC, he was often thought of as the second best player on his own team. When he finished 2nd in the Western Conference in 2016, he had had enough and took his opportunity to be the alpha dog for the first time. And he did. He won a ring and held up the Finals MVP trophy and made some people question if he had taken the torch from LeBron. And still in OKC, Westbrook got the regular season MVP. Because all Westbrook wants is statistics and the spotlight. He may be the most Kobe-esque player since Kobe was Kobe. Westbrook does not care about winning. He does not care about giving his teammates opportunities to get better. He is likely the most selfish player to ever have double digit assists. And yet it works. Despite him giving up wins to chase statistics and become a black hole of ball hoggery, he was able to accomplish the impossible and be the first person in the modern era to average a triple double as well as get a triple double in half of the games. But is this all he can do? As one of the most competitive stars in Paul George got shipped to play with him this season, can he scale it back in order to make the right decisions that optimize his chance to win rather than optimize the box score? Or will he continue to make players wanting rings hate him? I suspect the latter. I suspect he is in basketball for himself. Which caused me to think statistically and how I could see how effective Westbrook truly was, although not by shot selection, by usage rate. He set a startling usage rate of 42.5%, which begs the questions, how much are players contributing with how much they are used? Which players are underutilized and which are over utilized? This statistic does have to be taken with a grain of salt though. Since they are on per usage percent point, centers have a major advantage as they typically display lower usage rates. Meanwhile, higher usage ball handlers have a serious disadvantage. In order to create these statistics, I used three main metrics: usage rate, real plus-minus, and expected wins added. This way you could see the wins added per usage percent as well as the points added. All three came from ESPN.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AWLg4jhKw1ZuFHDW_PA1yE8gROKxp47jI4MbWhUsiZ8/edit?usp=sharing
As you can see, the clear and away most effective per usage percent point player is Rudy Gobert. Now it is an exponential curve so it is not as if the Jazz can give him a 100% usage rate and then get 111 wins next season and him average 40 points a night. That is not plausible. However, Gordon Hayward leaving may allow the Stifle Tower to truly expand his game and be used in more ways and thus contribute to his team more. What is truly telling though is four players: Lebron James, Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler, and Jokic. Unlike Westbrook, who still finished a respectable 14th, James, Paul, and Jokic are passers who push their teammates to be better. They find matchups to exploit and allow their teammates to do what they do best and thrive. They add value in how they influence others as well as how they carry themselves. CP3 may be a drill sergeant who demands efficiency out of everyone, but in a way, it does lead to some very successful team even if in the postseason they often falter, as the Ringer detailed in their inefficiency week. He demands his teammates be their best, and although it rubs many the wrong way it can lead to success in the right system. LeBron ranking third despite not being a center and with regular season stats when he truly has another gear in the postseason. Simply put he is an all timer. And then Jokic is just an incredible passer who truly knows how to make his team elite. Jimmy Butler, on the other hand, is not as talented passer as any of the aforementioned, yet his defensive prowess and hustle allows him to be the elite player that he is. What is important, clearly, is that the main two components that create a player who leaps off the page in these statistics is someone who ironically does not care about statistics but rather does the inglorious things and is willing to take a smaller role by letting their teammates be better and playing tough defense. Going forward, players who look like they could be much better if they were used more are Otto Porter, Dewayne Dedmon, Cody Zeller, and Lucas Nogueira. Otto Porter, being the only non center on the page, especially leaps off the page as he finished 10th when the points and wins added per usage percent were weighted evenly. He is being underutilized as that Wizards team belongs to their backcourt of Wall and Beal, but if something were to happen to one of them and he was asked to take on a bigger role, he could break out.
Going forward, as we look to the future, three names in particular stand out as you look at who could join the top of this board: Lonzo Ball, Ben Simmons, and Josh Jackson. Josh Jackson fits the Butler, Kawhi, and Draymond mold defensively of an aggressive and willing lockdown defender. Although he does have a broken jumper, his defensive excellence will allow him to be a top tier rookie on that side of the ball. Defense does win champions and if you look at teams that have done better than expected, especially in the playoffs, it is almost always because of defense. A prime example is the 04 Pistons. They are the only champion in the modern era not to feature a legitimately top 50 all time player, and the reason they were able to win is because they were committed to playing good defense. If you look at the Spurs, season after season, and how people consistently say that they are going to regress because they have not done anything to improve and yet they still crank out 55+ win seasons every year, it is because of defense. There are countless more examples and if Josh Jackson can bring this to the Suns they have a chance to overperform. Ben Simmons is a gifted passer and with the multitude of weapons in Fultz, Reddick, Saric, Covington and Embiid, he can make his teammates better. He can dedicate his craft to passing and significantly raise his ceiling. However, there is one player that raises the ceiling of his teams more than any other and it is Lonzo Ball. Wherever he goes, he wins. He led Chino Hills to be the undefeated number one school in the nation his senior year. While adding little other than TJ Leaf, he improved UCLA’s record from 15–17 to 31–5 with an Elite Eight appearance. Even his summer league team won the summer league title. He changes the culture of teams and makes them better than most others can. And that is why looking forward he has a chance to rank higher than any other guard on per usage percent point statistics.
