Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 24 March 2017

The day began with relatively intensive activity of SyAAF helicopters and L-39s from Hama during the early hours. Since nobody rocketed Hama AB for more than 24 hours, units based there continued their operations undisturbed. Take-offs were registered at 00.08 (helicopter), 00.46 (L-39), 00.53 (L-39), 01.09 (L-39), 01.23 (L-39), 01.27 (L-39), and 01.37 (helicopter).

The Russians then flew sporadic air strikes between 04.58 and 06.58 (total of eight take-offs). As far as is known, all of these targeted the area between Kfar Zita and Arzeh. The VKS launched another wave of 11 air strikes between 07.00 and 07.31hrs. Most of these have targeted the area north of Kfar Zita.

By then it was clear the weather improved significantly: sun came up in the morning, showing a clear sky with near limitless visibility. De-facto ‘perfect’ for an all-out effort by the SyAAF. Namely, the Assadist air force was barely active the last few weeks and thus had plenty of time to maintain its aircraft, build up its stockpiles of ammunition, and give some rest to its pilots and ground crews, too. Unsurprisingly, SyAAF went into action by launching two MiG-23s and a helicopter from Hama at 07.00hrs, and a single Su-22 from Kweres, at 07.25. An additional Su-22 followed from Kweres AB at 07.41, and one from Shayrat at 07.46. Two Su-22s launched from Tiyas AB at 07.57 and a MiG-23 from Hama at 08.02.

Intensive flying activity was continued through take-offs of a single Su-24 from Tiyas at 08.18, one Su-22 from Shayrat at 08.29, another Su-24 from Tiyas at 08.30, helicopter from Hama at 08.41, MiG-23 from Hama at 08.42, and a MiG-23 from Dmeyr at 08.48 (this overflew the centre of Hama city some 6 minutes later, indicating it also participated in air strikes on insurgents further north). Further take-offs included two helicopters and a MiG-21 from Hama (at 08.54, 08.55, and 08.57), a Su-24 from Tiyas at 09.03, a Su-22 from Kweres at 09.05, another Su-24 from Tiyas at 09.06, one more Su-22 from Kweres AB, at 09.12, and a MiG-23 from Hama at 09.36.
Notable is that the SyAAF didn’t exploit its ‘grounding’ (by bad weather of January and February) to improve the training of its flying crews. Instead, it’s still operating by single aircraft and helicopters, never in formations. Therefore, it’s exercising rather ‘continuous’, though rarely concentrated pressure upon insurgents and jihadists. Furthermore, total number of take-offs registered this morning indicates forward deployment of at least four Sukhois at Kweres AB, east of Aleppo. That site was probably selected instead of Nayrab AB (south of the city) because it’s better protected and outside artillery range of the insurgents and the Daesh. This even more so considering all of its counterattacks on the ground, as well as the HTS’ and TIP’s attack on Qomhana.

With the SyAAF completing its own round of morning activity, the VKS returned to the skies, flying a total of 26 by 09.30hrs. Further take-offs from Hmemmem AB followed at 09.44hrs, 09.47, 09.49, 09.50, and 09.51. All of these seem to have targeted the Sarqib area. The same area was targeted by six additional Russian air strikes, in period 10.04–10.10, but Jishr ash-Shughour was hit by four strikes too, around 10.13–10.15, and then two VKS helicopters that launched from Sanobar (helidrome south of Lattakia, constructed by Russians in September 2015), at 10.15. Russian flying activity further increased during the following minutes, with their aircraft and helicopters targeting nearly all of roads in western and southern Idlib ‘nearly at once’. Roads in Jishr ash-Shughour area were particularly heavily hit, before Ma’arat an-Nauman was bombed, at 10.23. Some of FSyA units underway there were hit, and at least one admitted suffering two KIA to Russian air strikes, but can’t find the link any more.

Meanwhile, the SyAAF increased the pressure upon insurgents in the Kfar Zita salient and further south. At 10.02, a single Su-22 launched from Shayrat, and then two helicopters joined it in attacks on insurgent positions south of Kfar Zita, flown during the following six minutes. These were joined by a SyAAF Mi-25 that launched from as-Safira at 10.22, signalling the start of the next wave of Assadist air strikes. This included a MiG-23 from Shayrat launched at 10.24, and was combined with activity of three additional Russian helicopters that targeted the Jishr ash-Shughour area around 10.30. Further registered take-offs around this time included one MiG-23 from Shayrat at 10.49, and another from Hama at 10.54, followed by a MiG-23 from Shayrat at 10.58, a single MiG-21 launched from Hama at 11.04; a Su-24 from Tiyas at 11.06; one Su-22 from Shayrat at 11.07 and another at 11.14; MiG-23 from Shayrat at 11.34 (this bombed Talbiseh); a Su-22 took off from Dmeyr at 11.36, a MiG-23 from Dmeyr at 11.36 (this apparently bombed something in Sarqib area); a MiG-23 from Dmeyr at 11.40; and a Su-22 from Shayrat at 11.55.

VKS fighter-bombers meanwhile bombed Kfar Nabl, at 10.29, and Sarqib, at 10.46 and 10.49, while four of them bombed targets in Sarqib area over the following minutes.

By that time, up to six UAVs were airborne over the battlefield in northern Hama alone, and providing targeting intelligence for additional air strikes, including one flown by a MiG-23 that launched from Hama at 11.57, a Russian fighter-bomber that launched from Hmemmem AB at 12.01, a SyAAF helicopter that launched from as-Safira at 12.08, and a Su-24 that launched from Tiyas at 12.11hrs. Kfar Nabl was hit by a single Russian air strike at 12.13hrs, while one Su-24 launched from Tiyas at 12.34.

There followed something like ‘10-minutes break’, after which the VKS launched another wave. Related take-offs from Hmemmem AB were registered at 12.40, 12.45, 12.47 (x2: these two bombed Idlib city), 12.48, and 12.50. The SyAAF then launched one Su-22 from Shayrat AB at 12.51: this rocketed HTS positions in Qamahana, 6 minutes later, as Assadists launched their first major counterattack in that place (more about this topic later). Russians then bombed Sarqib at 12.57, and Ma’arat an-Nauman, at 13.00hrs, and Kfar Nabl at 13.14, while two of their helicopters were active in Jishr ash-Shughour area, between 13.00 and 13.15hrs. Khan Sheykhoun was hit by Russians at 13.14, and Ma’arat an-Nauman (again) at 13.17.
Another SyAAF Su-22 — which launched from Shayrat AB — hit the HTS’ position in Qamahana around 13.29, followed by a helicopter that took off from Hama AB at 13.27. At the same time, a single VKS fighter-bomber bombed Kfar Nabl, while two Russian helicopters attacked unknown targets in Jishr ash-Shughour around 13.32.

Sometimes around this time, or slightly later (i.e. between 13.00 and 15.00hrs local time), the Jaysh an-Nasr has rocketed Hama AB with a volley of BM-21s. This resulted in obvious suspension of all flying activity for the next few hours.

As a sort of ‘replacement’, a single L-39 was launched from Kweres AB and a Su-22 from Shayrat at 13.39, and both are known to have attacked the HTS and TIP’s positions in Qamahana area, some 10 minutes later. Another Su-22 from Kweres bombed Qamahana around 13.45. Meanwhile, VKS air strikes continued hitting Sarqib (13.35), Ma’arat an-Nauman (13.36), Kfar Nabl (13.37), Kfar Nabl (13.39), and Kfar Nabl again (13.41). Further take-offs from Hmemmem AB were registered at 13.46, 13.59, and two (both Su-25s) at 14.29, but I’ve got no idea what did they target.

More of SyAAF air strikes were launched starting with 13.55, when a single MiG-23 took-off from Shayrat AB (this bombed Qamahana), and a Su-22 from Kweres AB. The SyAAF helicopter that launched from as-Safira at 14.12 bombed the Daesh in Dayr Hafir area.

The activity then slowed down a bit: Shayrat AB launched one Su-22 into a strike on Qamahana at 14.59, and another at 15.28, while Tiyas sent a single Su-24 in that direction at 15.48. With Hama temporarily out of action, when pro-regime troops launched their next counterattack on HTS and TIP in Qamahana, this was supported by a MiG-23 that was scrambled from Shayrat AB at 15.51. A trio of Su-24 that launched from Tiyas at 15.53, 15.54 and 16.01 apparently bombed targets in Sarqib area (one of local HQs of the HTS).

Around this time, the VKS became active again and then flew a series of strikes against targets in Khan Sheykhoun area, including one at 15.55 (by a helicopter), another at 15.56, and one at 16.09 (helicopter again).
A pair of SyAAF Su-22s from Shayrat AB, followed by a MiG-23 from Dmeyr bombed Latamina at 16.13, 16.14, and 16.16, while Ra’astan was bombed by a single Su-22 at 16.20.

By 16.00hrs, Hama AB was back in action and launching new air strikes. These began with a single helicopter, which became airborne at 16.21, and a L-39, that attacked Lataminah around 16.30. Another helicopter bombed the same town around 16.40, and additional followed from Hama at 16.56, 17.07, an 17.32.

As the HTS, TIP and the FSyA were then busy with defending their positions from further counter-attacks on the ground, nobody came to the idea to fire another volley of BM-21s at Hama AB. Therefore, this then continued launching air strikes, including one L-39 at 17.33, another at 17.48; one helicopter at 17.50, another L-39 at 17.55, one more at 17.56, and one at 18.05. A single Su-24 launched from Tiyas at 18.09 some headquarters in Latamina area (I still don’t know if one of the HTS or of the FSyA, though).
The SyAAF continued with one helicopter from Hama at 18.26, a Su-24 from Tiyas at 18.28, L-39 from Hama at 18.28, another at 18.35, and two Su-24s from Tiyas, both of these launched at 18.37 (this is happening very rarely, and usually means some kind of ‘particularly important target’ was identified and an ‘immediate strike’ on it ordered). Another Su-24 from Tiyas bombed the AAS-positions in Kfar Naboudah, around 18.37, and it seems the same place was hit by a single L-39 from Kweres AB, just a minute later.
Four additional L-39s took-off from Hama at 18.44, 18.45, 18.46 and 18.47 — and at least two of them attacked targets in Kfar Nabl area. The fifth rocketed something in Latamina, around 19.13, and one operated along major roads in Khan Sheykhoun area, around 19.15 (this is meanwhile the usual practice of the SyAAF, known already since the last months of siege of Eastern Aleppo, when L-39s were ‘hanging’ over the Castello road, coming down to attack whatever moved below them, nearly every single night).
That the SyAAF is still quite fresh became obvious when it launched another Su-24 from Tiyas AB, at 19.31, and one more L-39 from Hama, at 19.32. These were followed by another Su-24 from Tiyas at 19.32, and a helicopter from Hama, at 19.37. One helicopter then bombed Masasinah, at 19.38, while two L-39s repeatedly strafed roads in Khan Sheykhoun area, around 20.09. One more L-39 launched from Hama at 20.15hrs, but I don’t know what was its target: two Su-24s that launched from Tiyas at 20.25 and 20.35 bombed targets in Khan Sheykhoun area. Three Su-24s scrambled from Tiyas at 20.52, 21.08 and 22.08 should have hit targets in Kfar Zita area.
The final series of air strikes yesterday was initiated by the VKS at 20.13 hrs, when the first of about two dozens of fighter-bombers was registered while taking off from Hmemmem AB. Additional take-offs were sighted at 20.15, 20.16 (x2), 20.23, 20.24, 20.39, 20.40, 20.41, 20.44 (x2), 20.47, 20.48, 20.56, 21.00, 21.06, 21.08 (x3), 21.10, 21.11, 21.16, 21.19, 22.08, 22.09, 22.31, 22.40, 23.38, and 23.42. These targeted (between others) Sarqib, Kfar Nabl, Idlib (city),

Totals
This was a day of unprecedented aerial activity since autumn 2012 (when SyAAF was launching up to 250 sorties a day).

SyAAF
helicopters: 18
L-39s: 25
MiG-21s: 4
MiG-23: 13
Su-22s: 18
Su-24s: 23

VKS
fighter-bombers: 106
helicopters: 21
UAVs: 10

My assessment is that both the SyAAF and the VKS could still fly some 10–15 sorties more. Keep in mind that Hama AB was ‘blocked’ for at least two hours after the Jaysh an-Nasr’s BM-21 strike, yesterday. Considering reports from today, it is perfectly possible they have achieved this ‘feat’ on 25 March: hope, I’ll find enough time to prepare a similar review, tomorrow.

That said, don’t get too impressed: except in Qamahana area, majority of these air strikes did not hit the FSyA and the HTS units deployed directly on the battlefields of northern Hama, but their rear areas — i.e. primarily roads used to haul supplies from Turkey to the frontlines. Thus, except for SyAAF air strikes flown during the late afternoon and evening, they had minimal direct impact upon the flow of battles on the ground.

They might have a significant impact upon the flow of further battles, though: if the VKS and the SyAAF manage to disrupt the flow of supplies, and large-scale movement of reserves, fighters on the frontlines are likely to run out of ammo and food before soon.