Bamboozling Aerial Operations by Assad-Regime and Russians

Another ‘quick and dirty’ write-up — prompted by my surprise at what I’ve got to hear and to read about aerial operations by the SyAAF and the VKS over central and northern Syria of the last four days.

Namely, a cross-examination of reports from 1st-hand sources (provided on condition of anonymity), with those provided by social media (especially by Sentry Syria), is indicating that bad weather was greatly hampering flying operations during the given period of time. No doubt, resulting ‘statistics’ (see below) is far from complete and anything than ‘official’. But, I do consider it at least ‘indicative’ for what is going on in the air over central and north-western Syria.

For example, it is clear that the bad weather — thick clouds and rain — has its impact upon operations of the SyAAF and the VKS in the last four days.

This is little surprising in the case of the SyAAF - considering its lack of necessary training and equipment. Except for Sukhoi Su-24s, this air force simply lacks ‘all weather’ capability. With exception of few crews operating Aero L-39 light strikers from Hama and Kweres ABs, and a handful of Su-24-crews based at Tiyas and Shayrat ABs, it also lacks pilots and navigators/bombardiers trained to operate by night. Therefore, while the SyAAF can be expected to fly up to about a dozen of sorties by night (like it did for most of the last few months), it cannot be expected to fly by bad weather — not even by day.

However, the VKS in Syria is not only equipped with such advanced fighter-bomber types like Su-30, Su-34, and Su-35, but should have enough crews trained and qualified to fly not only by night, but by night and in bad weather too. Indeed, considering the widespread faming of the SVP-24 nav/attack system, and the fact this is GLONASS-supported, one must wonder why does the VKS seem to regularly stop flying even by bad weather (like rain) during the day?

Specifically…

13 December

Not a single take-off was reported before 13.50hrs local time, when one Su-22 launched from Shayrat AB in northern direction (i.e. not in direction of Palmyra). Probable reason was bad weather (it was raining in Aleppo), but also sheer exhaustion after all the flying over the previous days and weeks.

Considering Daesh’s siege of T-4, and reported ‘evacuation’ of aircraft from there, it was interesting to receive reports about a take-off of a single Su-24 from Tiyas AB, around 14.23hrs local time, and another at 14.50hrs. At best, and gauging by the number of Su-24-take-offs from Shayrat, it seems that most — though not all — of Su-24s usually based at Tiyas were ‘only gradually evacuated’ to the former.

All flying then ceased around 16.00hrs local time, and no further take-offs were reported for the next five hours. Russians launched few additional strikes during the night, including one at 21.50hrs, and three between 23.45 and 23.48.

Totals
SyAAF
helicopters: 0
L-39: 0
MiG-21: 0
MiG-23: 1
Su-22: 5
Su-24: 2

UAV: 0

VKS: 5
V-MF: 0
helicopters: 0

***********

14 December
The day began with a single Russian helicopter reported over Western Idlib around 00.22hrs, followed by a take-off of a single Russian fighter-bomber from Hmemmem AB, a minute later. Further take-offs from Hmemmem AB were reported at 01.09, 01.53, 02.03, 02.06, 02.10, 02.11, 02.19, and 03.45hrs local time indicating quite vivid Russian activity. Starting at 02.31hrs local time, most of these seem to have targeted Eastern Aleppo — which is contrary to what the Russian Ministry of Defence is usually insisting upon, namely, that the VKS did not bombing Aleppo (city) since mid October 2016. At least according to insurgent sources, one of these air strikes seems to have hit IRGC positions in Rashideen District of Aleppo.

Around 02.24, one SyAAF Su-24 was launched from Tiyas AB and this turned in ‘north-eastern direction’ after take-off, indicating possible mission against Daesh in Palmyra area. Another did the same around 03.54hrs.

There was no SyAAF reaction to a double SVBIED attack — followed by assaults from three sides — on Tiyas AB, reported by Amaq around the noon that day (can’t find the source any more, sorry), but during the day photos appeared of the SyAAF Mi-25 ‘2808’ at Tiyas.

Weather seems to have stopped all activity during the day, until 16.03hrs, when a single ‘Russian’ aircraft was reported while approaching Khan Touman. Whether this was a weather-recce sortie or an air strike, remains unclear.

At 18.33, a single Su-24 was launched from Shayrat AB, followed by another — but from Tiyas — at 18.54hrs. Both flew in north-eastern direction. Meanwhile, Russians launched one fighter-jet from Hmemmem AB, at 18.54, and one L-39 was reported as airborne at 18.54 east of Aleppo. Four Russian fighter-jets were launched from Hmemmem AB between 20.31 and 20.32hrs, another at 21.15, and one at 22.11hrs. Two L-39s were active in Aleppo area too that evening, one reportedly taking off from Kweres at 22.39, another at 23.03hrs.

Totals
SyAAF
helicopters: 0
L-39: 3
MiG-21: 0
MiG-23: 0
Su-22: 0
Su-24: 4

UAV: 0

VKS: 17
V-MF: 0
helicopters: 1

***********

15 December
The day began with a single Su-24 taking-off from Tiyas AB around 00.15hrs. While it is unclear what did that fighter-bomber attack, two L-39s that took off from Hama AB at 00.41 and 00.51 were active in Khan Sheikhoun area (southern Idlib). A single Russian fighter-bomber took off from Hmemmem AB at 02.20hrs.

Once the weather cleared sufficiently, both the SyAAF and the VKS launcher more air strikes, starting around 09.32hrs: one of SyAAF sorties was flown by a single Su-24 from Tiyas AB. Four Su-22s launched from Shayrat by 10.20hrs — all going in north-eastern or eastern direction — i.e. probably against Daesh in Palmyra area.

Much more activity was reported starting from 11.00hrs, including two MiG-23s and two Su-22s from Shayrat, helicopters from Hama, UAVs over Idlib Governorate, two take-offs from Hmemmem and two high-flying Russians over Western Idlib (possibly indicating sorties from Kuznetsov). Even a ‘reconnaissance’ aircraft was reported overflying Khan Sheikhoun in eastern direction, around 11.36hrs.

Two Su-24s launched from Tiyas AB at 13.04 and 13.05, providing further evidence this base was not entirely evacuated. Both flew away in north-eastern direction, and Hama AB launched a single MiG-21 around 13.35hrs. Later during the day, insurgents rocketed Hama AB with BM-21s: considering lack of reports about flying activities from this air base for the rest of the day, this might have caused at least a temporarily stop of operations.

Through all of this time, sporadic activity of Russian fighter-jets was reported from Ma’arat an-Nauman area. More Su-22s and few MiG-23s took off from Shayrat after 14.00hrs, and a single Su-24 from Tiyas at 14.27hrs. Neverthells, and just like since days already, no helicopter activity was reported from this area at all.

All SyAAF activity ceased around 14.45, and Russians became active around 15.15hrs instead, launching single air strikes from Hmemmem AB — mostly in direction of Jishr ash-Shughour or further north-east (i.e. well away from direction of Palmyra).

Two Su-24s that launched from Shayrat AB at 15.43 and 15.58 flew in direction of Aleppo, i.e. Khan Touman. Four others, launched at 16.02 and 16.03, bombed targets in Idlib area. Two more followed at 17.55 and 18.13, and also flew in northern, not in eastern direction. Some seem they have bombed the evacuation route through Ramousseh District (SW Aleppo) agreed between Russians and Turks. At least two others (my estimate) might have deployed CBUs on the insurgent-held pocket in Eastern Aleppo.

If this was really the case, it would represent a clear violation of the cease-fire and evacuation agreement for Eastern Aleppo. Indeed, it would impose such questions like: to what degree are Russians really in position to ‘control’ their supposed IRGC and Assad-Regime allies? Why is the Assad-Regime launching air strikes that are clearly in violation of the Russo-Turkish cease-fire- and evacuation agreement for Eastern Aleppo?

Finally, if truth, such reports would be interesting also because the SyAAF didn’t drop any kind of CBUs (‘cluster bomb units’) since at least a year.

Two Su-24-take-offs were reported from T-4 at 19.28 and 19.46hrs, but it remains unknown what did they bomb. L-39s from Kweres AB became active around 18.34, and targeted Eastern Aleppo and Latamina with a total of five air strikes flown by 19.00hrs. Another took-off around 20.04hrs.

Russians continued their operations with a total of six air strikes launched from Hmemmem AB between 20.53hrs and 21.27, while another L-39 took off from Hama around 21.29 — apparently into attack on targets in Khan Sheikhoun area. Up to four Russian air strikes hit Khan Touman area round 21.42hrs: it is possible that the aircraft in question came from aircraft carrier Kuznetsov.

A single Su-24 took off from Tiyas at 22.44hrs, another from Shayrat at 22.54hrs, while another series of VKS take-offs from Hmemmem followed between 22.50hrs and 23.41hrs. Most of these have hit the Jishr ash-Shughour area, before midnight.

Totals
SyAAF
helicopters: 1
L-39: 6
MiG-21: 1
MiG-23: 9
Su-22: 13
Su-24: 14

UAV: 2

VKS: 35
V-MF: 3 (possible)
helicopters: 4
recce: 1

Single IRIAF C-130 dropped supplies over Fouh/Kefraya.

************

16 December
Flying activity began with six take-offs from Hmemmem AB between 02.03 and 02.23. A single UAV was noted around the same time over western Idlib. Another fighter-jet launched at 04.25hrs. All went in north-eastern direction, mostly towards Khan Touman.

Another air strike at Khan Touman was recorded at 07.49hrs, and at least four hit western Aleppo between 08.59 and 09.21 — the latter possibly launched from Kuznetsov (since no take-offs from Hmemmem AB were reported before 10.34hrs). While absolutely no activity by the SyAAF was recorded all of the night and morning, Russians then ceased flying too. Guess, the weather worsened again.

Five new take-offs from Hmemmem AB were reported only between 14.07 and 14.23hrs, another three between 15.05 and 15.26hrs. Most of these seem to have targeted various places west and south of Aleppo. At least two of air strikes in question have targeted two villages south of Aleppo with CBUs.

Khan Touman area was hit again by four air strikes between 19.45 and 20.09hrs, while the last three take-offs were recorded between 20.30 and 21.04 and seem to have targeted western Aleppo.

Totals
SyAAF 0 activity

UAV: 3

VKS: 21
V-MF: 2 (possible)

Must be the bad weather is prevalent today (17 December) too, then so far only one sortie by (apparently) a Russian fighter-jet was registered this morning.