Ukraine War, 12–13 April, 2022
Good morning everybody!
Here’s my summary on Ukraine War for 12 and 13 April 2022.
CAA — Combined Arms Army (Russia)
BTG — Battalion Tactical Group (700–800 troops, Russia)
CBU — cluster bomb units
GCAA — Guards Combined Arms Army (Russia)
GMRD — Guards Motor Rifle Division (Russia)
GTA — Guards Tank Army (Russia)
GTD — Guards Tank Division (Russia)
Keystone Cops in Moscow — Ministry of Defence (Russia)
KIA — killed in action
LOC — Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass)
MBT — main battle tank
Mech — Mechanised Brigade (Ukraine)
MIA — missing in action
MRB — Motorised Rifle Brigade (Russia)
MRD — Motorised Rifle Division (Russia)
PMC — private military company/contractor
RFA — Russian Federation Army
South OSK — Southern Military District (Russia)
Tank — Tank Brigade (Ukraine)
TR — Tank Regiment (Russia)
VKS — Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space force, Russia)
West OSK — Western Military District (Russia)
WIA — wounded in action
STRATEGIC
Censorship of the media reports by Ukrainian authorities is meanwhile worse than the Russian. Official statements by the local GenStab have been reduced to ‘two a day’, but these are repeating the same message, regardless of any changes in the situation. Indeed, they are often repeated for several days, even once the other Ukrainian officials are declaring them for obsolete. The censorship is particularly effective in regards of results of Russian strikes by ballistic- and cruise missiles, and on reports by regional authorities. Essentially, all that’s reported is criminal activity of Russian occupation forces against the local population.
Tragically, it cannot be denied that the Russians are keeping them and the public well-supplied with news of worst kind. The FSB, Rosgvardia and the RFA are neck-deep into forcing authorities in occupied territories to cooperate with them, are involved in widespread mass-murder, looting and plundering, and causing ecological disasters.
The cynic in me would say: Putin is not only mobilising reservists from some of poorest corners in Russia with the promise of opportunity to enrich themselves by rampaging in Ukraine, but the Russians are not really preparing for long-term presence: they’re rather interested in physical destruction of everybody and everything of any kind of meaning, importance, or worth. Little surprise then, the US President Biden is meanwhile talking about Putin running a genocide of Ukrainians….
BTW, presence of at least 500 IRGC/Hezbollah troops — some from Syria, but some from Iraq — with RFA in Ukraine has been confirmed again (private source). It’s still very short of ’16,000 combatants with experience in urban warfare’ from ranks of Assadist militias (see: ‘Syrian Arab Army’), promised by Shoygu to Putin over a month ago. Also confirmed was presence of the ’15 Internationalist Brigade’, consisting of Abkhazian troops: part of the later was ambushed and destroyed by the Ukrainians somewhere along the southern portion of the LOC, back on 12 April.
….ah yes: and, on 12 April, the Ukrainian SBU arrested Viktor Medvedchuk, a key pro-Russian politician and a close friend of Putin, who escaped from house arrest on 24 February. He was captured in Transcarpatia while trying to escape to Belarus, wearing a military uniform. Zelensky announced that Ukraine is interested in exchanging him for Ukrainian prisoners of war.
AIR
There are strong indications that Ukraine run out of guided ammunition for its Bayraktars, that Turkey is not delivering any replacements, and that the USA are now ‘jumping in’ to deliver some of its own ‘goodies’, instead. That all said, ‘don’t worry’: Ukrainian Bayraktars remain operational, ‘although’ the Russians claimed more of them shot down than were delivered by now. It’s just so that the Ukrainians are not releasing any related videos.
Included in the newest arms package the USA are shipping to Ukraine is not only another batch of Javelins and/or precision guided ammunition for Ukrainian Bayraktars, but also a total of 17 Russian-made Mil Mi-17 helicopters: these are left-over from the stock of the former Afghan Air Force. Five were in Ukraine as of yesterday. They arrived almost simultaneously with Polish-supplied T-72s, and Czech- and Slovak-supplied Dana howitzers.
In turn, the Keystone cops are shown video like this one, including takes in which one of their helicopters came under attack by a SAM or MANPAD, made a hard break, while the wingman returned fire, ‘destroying a Buk (SA-17) air defence system’ in the Zolotarevka area, on 11 April:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1UfeKDB5VY
Also on 11 April, the Keystone Cops claimed the destruction of 20 ‘enemy targets by high-precision weapons’ (see: ballistic- or cruise missiles). With the Ukrainians being zip-lip, it’s next to impossible to gauge what exactly do the Russians mean. This video is shown the results of one of strikes in Mykolaiv area:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F37iRjx85qM
Governor Kim declared it an ‘empty hangar owned by a Qatari investor’. Hm…
The Russians also claimed the destruction of 36 ‘enemy targets by high-precision weapons’, yesterday. Between these were ammunition depots of the 24th and 57th Mechanised Brigades in Popasna and Barvinkove areas, and ‘five strongholds of the 24th Mechanised Brigade’, plus four helicopters at the Mirgorod Air Base (they specified these as ‘two Mi-24 and two Mi-8’).
Yesterday evening, the Keystone Cops in Moscow also ‘announced’ that they might strike the ‘Ukrainian military decision-making centre’ — should the Ukrainian troops not stop attacking the border territories in Russia, foremost in the Belogorod area. Well, here you have a good reason for several false-flag operations there, lately. Arguably, after trying to kill or capture Zelensky in the first three days of the war, the Russians have abstained from targeting him by other means.
NAVAL
By all the information available by now, the Russian Navy missile cruiser Moskva sunk in the Black Sea, early this morning. As for why, there are at least three versions:
- Ukrainians claim to have hit her with two Neptune anti-ship missiles; that these caused fire that went out of control, and that, as the cruiser began rolling in the heavy seas, and due to the threat of detonation of ammunition, the crew of 500+ was evacuated. I’ve got no doubts they’re carefully monitoring and constantly intercepting all the Russian radio communications; thus, it’s perfectly possible they’re ‘exploiting opportunity’ to claim something for themselves which they, actually, didn’t do (remember the claim about Tochka strike on that amphib in the port of Berdyansk).
- The Keystone Cops in Moscow claim the ship was seriously damaged by a detonation of ammunition and the crew had to be evacuated. By side that there is no doubt Moskva was stuffed full with missiles and other ammunition, and the Russian Navy has its own history of blowing up its ships, always by accident, but: would any on-board explosion make anything better than combat damage caused by Ukrainians? Me thinks: not.
- Third version is that the ship actually run into one of mines sawn by the Russians. Russian Navy has deployed plenty of drifting mines over the last few weeks, all with the purpose of blocking the Ukrainian coast of the Black Sea. Well, but drifting mines are a two-edged sword: these are meanwhile threatening even ship traffic off the Turkish coast of the Black Sea so much, that the Turkish Navy is busy searching for them and neutralising them (AFAIK, has destroyed at least three, yesterday alone). Thus, such an ‘option’ — and then one resulting in ‘own goal’ — sounds perfectly possible.
One way or the other: Moskva was the flagship and the most powerful warship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and they can’t send in a replacement because Turkey has closed Bosporus and Dardanelles for any warships not based in the Black Sea.
NORTH-EAST
Heavy shelling and rocketing of Kharkiv goes on for five days now. Barvinkove, 35km south-west of Izium, was also heavily shelled. Ukrainian Army seems to have secured the village of Derhachi, embattled since at least 31 March. On the other side, the two Russian BTGs holding the lines north of the city remain busy emplacing extensive minefields. I.e. the Russians seem not to be planning an assault at this city at all: instead, they continue to target civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv.
The Russians are hauling yet additional units into the Izium area. According to NATO reports, Dvornikov has brought the 41st CAA and additional BTGs of the 90th Tank Division to the Belogorod and Voronezh. The photo below is shown a train bringing-in Terminator armoured fighting vehicles to this part of Ukraine, on 11 April. On the same day, the Russians reported the capitulation of Ukrainian defences in the village of Topolskoye: this remains unconfirmed.
EAST
For the last 4–5 days, nearly every single of press-releases by the Keystone Cops in Moscow is including reports about massive air- and artillery strikes on the 24th Independent Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Army. Just as example: on 12 April, the Russians claimed to have destroyed 14 of its vehicles and 120 personnel. This unit is known to be defending Popasna, which in turn is indicating at what are the Russians shooting the most.
The head of the Lugansk military administration has issued another demand for all inhabitants to leave the oblast, immediately.
MARIUPOL
The Keystone Cops in Moscow are reporting to have ‘completely liberated’ the port. Of course, except for Marines — for whom the Russians say are surrendering in droves (figures claimed over the last two days went over 1,000) — the only enemy they say they are facing in Mariupol are ‘militants of the Nazi formation Azov’. Correspondingly, they have ‘released all the hostages held by the Nazis in the port, including foreigners’. Curiously, I do not know about a single video released that would confirm anything of this.
For their part, the Marines report to continued fighting: indeed, about 500 of them should have managed to evade encirclement in the north of the city, and have withdrawn to the area controlled by Azov. It’s unclear if this means the pocket in the south, or in the eastern side of the centre, though.
Correspondingly, the Russians meanwhile claim to be in the process of preparing for the ’final phase’ of the battle for Mariupol and that for this purpose they are making extensive use of FAB-3000s, BM-30s, Schmel rocket-propelled thermobaric grenades, and (this is news) of BMO-T armoured personnel carriers against the garrison. The latter is an open-topped APC based on the chassis of the T-72.
Videos like this one are definitely confirming a sort of ‘return’ of the 150th MRD (see T-72B3 MBTs, probably from the 102nd MRR) to the city:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19YvI2qNHpU
SOUTH
The 49th CAA might be down to — at most — some 3–4 BTGs in troops and equipment ready for combat, but it can still hit back, and the Ukrainian troops facing it in the Kherson area (5th Naval Infantry, 35th Mechanised, and Territorial Defence) seem to have been overenthusiastic. Over the last few days, the Ukrainians have certainly lost numerous armoured personnel carriers, and few dozens of troops, and on 11 April the Russians claimed an Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter gunship shot down over Posad-Pokrovskoye, too.
Further east, there are reports that one of battered BTGs of the 42nd MRD has been reinforced by a contingent of 400 troops from Rosgvardia. Apparent intention is to create something like a ‘rapid intervention force’, necessary because there is a growing number of reports about Ukrainian special forces raiding rear areas and ambushing supply convoys of the 58th CAA all the way down to Melitupol, and as close as 30km from Mariupol.
