Ukraine War, 16 and 17 May 2022
Good morning everybody!
Several dramas are unfolding in Ukraine today, thus here an ‘unplanned’ update.
STRATEGIC
President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is officially opposing NATO-membership of Finland and Sweden.
Typically, the Western media is de-facto zip-lip on Erdogan’s reasoning. At most, it’s mentioning his complaints about Sweden and Finland ‘harboring terrorists’: not a word that the characters in question are the PKK — ‘Kurdistan Worker’s Party’ — a gang that is not only pursuing Maoist ideology, at war with Turkey since the mid-1980s, or officially banned — but entirely ignored, if not openly supported — by most of the EU and the NATO….nor that the PKK is strongly supportive for Moscow (its traditional supporter) in regards of the war in Ukraine.
You don’t think so? Be my guest…
This is an interview with PKK’s leader, Duran Kalkalan from early March this year, in which Kalkalan is explaining that the Ukrainian government is a collaborator and servant of the West, not representing the will of Ukrainian society, and thus not in control of an independent and sovereign state. On the contrary, it’s a gang in charge of an exploitation and robbery scheme….and gangs are gangs: all are bad… AFAIK, Kalkalan didn’t withdraw anything of this.
But hey, Erdogan can’t be right here. No. He’s a de-facto dictator. Worse yet, a dictator of Turkey, and Turkey is — no matter how much a NATO-member since 1950s — widely despised in Europe and the USA. Therefore, Erdogan must be wrong, no matter what he does and/or says. Foremost: it’s not only that the good Greek Christians say so (while not only killing the EU’s ban on transhipping of Russian oil, tripling the number of their ships exporting Russian oil these days, or ignoring Putin’s deployment of Hezbollah and Chechens to murder Ukrainian Christians): it’s nobody less than the People in Need of Fresh Air who are biggest friends of the PKK for years already.
Back in 2014, they’ve convinced the PKK’s ‘Syrian branch’ — YPG — to rename itself the ‘Syrian Democratic Forces’ (and are openly bragging about this ‘feat’), and then declared it for ‘most effective ally in fight against the Daesh (aka IS/ISIS/ISIL/IGIL) in Syria. Correspondingly, the PKK/YPG/SDF-conglomerate is ‘good guys’ regardless of what are they doing to Turkey (including Kurds in Turkey), to Kurds in Syria or to local Suny Arabs of Syria and Iraq…* - and thus supplied by arms and trained, not only by the USA, but half the NATO, too. Indeed, ever since the PKK/YPG/SDF-conglomerate is widely (mis)declared into (all of) ‘Kurds’ by the Western media, and much of the Western intelligentsia: nobody comes to the idea to explain that at the times Erdogan climbed to power — and widely lauded as ‘great reformator’ by the same West that despises him now — he did so with widespread support of Kurds in Turkey, the mass of whom is even more at odds with the PKK than Erdogan and his AKP could ever dream about becoming…or that there are much larger organisations of Iraqi Kurds maintaing cordial relations to Erdogan…
Thus, please accept and realise it, everybody: there is simply no way all these good people — the Pentagon, Greece, most of the NATO etc. — can be wrong… Nope. I’m a jihadist supporter and working for the Turkish MIT, and for Qatari State Security alone for talking about all of this….
Anyway… According to the People in Need of Fresh air, there are now 105 BTGs of the RFA in Ukraine: sure, the number increased by 20 over the last three weeks. I’m not sure if they have deleted all those rendered incapable of further fighting the in the last two weeks, nor if they are counting just the RFA but no Separatist BTGs, or if the latter are included, too. In turn, according to Western observers, Ukraine should have no less than 27 brigades deployed on the frontlines from northern Kharkiv down to southern Mykolaiv Oblasts. I.e. the overall balance of forces is something like 105 Russian (and/or Separatist?) battalions, against slightly over 80 Ukrainian battalions. In the Donbass area alone — between Izium and Vuhledar — the RFA should have 68 of its (and/or Separatist?) BTGs against about 48 Ukrainian battalions.
Is a good explanation for why the mass of Russian attacks are repelled by Ukrainians: the RFA (and Separatists), simply lack the force ratio for the kind of operation they are trying to run.
AIR
Early on 16 May, the VKS launched at least two Kh-59s to hit a bridge across the Dniester estuary, in Odessa. At least one missile missed the target. Around the noon, another VKS jet then approached Odessa to release its Kh-59s, but fired only one, and this was claimed as shot down. During the night, the Yavoriv area was targeted again, but Kyiv didn’t release enough details to deduct by what: the only thing known is that it was a ‘military facility’ that was targeted. Early this morning, Ukrainians claimed the downing of four Kalibr cruise missiles (all came in from the direction of the Black Sea): three while approaching the Lviv area, and one in the Mykolaiv region.
Few things about Kh-59s. Theoretically, deploying such weapons sounds very simple: enter target coordinates, release and, when the time comes, power up the TV-seeker and then guide into the target. In reality, lots of things can go wrong.
Foremost: the mass of Kh-59s in VKS’ stocks was manufactured back in the 1980s, at least in early 1990s. One can stretch the shelf life of such weapons through periodic maintenance, but nobody in Russia can say if this was undertaken ever since. And Soviet-made ‘high-tech’ of the 1980s was well-known as ‘temperamental’, and extremely sensitive to proper handling, too — at least between its users. Unsurprisingly, up to around 60% of Kh-59s are malfunctioning already on release, or shortly after. See: engines are not activating and the missile drops to the ground (or into the sea), like a rock. Or the data-link necessary to guide it to the target is not working etc. I.e. lots of things are going wrong with Kh-59s well before they are reaching the target zone — which is obvious also from Ukrainian reports about single-missile strikes, almost every day for the last three or four weeks: most of the times, involved VKS-crews are actually releasing two Kh-59s…
Even if the missile works as expected, it still has to be guided into its target. For this purpose, the Kh-59 is equipped with ‘electro-optical’ seeker head. Essentially: a TV-camera, images of which are then transferred to the aircraft that launched it, so the crew there can steer it (that’s why ‘that’ with the functioning data-link is as important). What might appear ‘easy’ in a PC-simulation or -game, is anything else than that while one is confined to the cockpit of a combat aircraft flying a real-world combat mission: the missile is travelling fast, the cockpit display is small, aircraft is shaking while flying, and thus the operator has all sort of problems just with trying to find his actual target — especially so if the target is situated in a densely built-up area. What a surprise then, the Kh-59 fired at Kyiv during the visit by UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, missed its target (arms factory) by about 500+ metres, few weeks ago…
Back to ongoing developments… Yesterday, Ukrainians claimed a VKS Su-25 shot down, but didn’t mention the area. Moreover, the Ukrainian Air Force should’ve hit an RFA command post somewhere north of Siversky Donets. AFAIK, the Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed no Ukrainian jets as shot down.
DISRUPTIVE OPERATIONS
Short on troops, ballistic- and cruise missiles, and increasingly short on tanks and other armoured vehicles, the Keystone Cops are now doing their utmost to keep Ukrainians distracted from developments in the battle of Donbass, and prevent them from re-deploying their units there.
On 16 May, a squad of Spetsnaz was detected after crossing the border to Ukraine in the Sumy area, and ambushed by the Border Guards. One of the latter was killed, but the Russians forced to withdraw. This morning, at least five missiles/rockets of (to me) unknown type have hit the town of Okhtyrka, also in the Sumy region, injuring five.
Worst of all was a missile strike that hit the 169th Training Centre outside the village of Desna, in the Chernihiv Oblast, this morning. Eight were killed and 16 wounded there.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
North of Kharkiv, the Ukrainians are widening their penetration to the Russian border in the Starytsya area, and fighting the BTG 200th Motor Rifle Brigade in Ternova. Simultaneously, there are reports that their special forces have crossed the Siversky Donets somewhere further south, and are raiding Russian positions all the way from Losivka to Shevchenkove in the east, and down to Hontarivka in the south (all these places are east of Siversky Donets). Indeed, Russian sources are reporting a pontoon bridge across the river, and that Ukrainians are advancing on Vovchansk. Not sure how truth is this, but we’re certainly going to see in the coming days.
Elsewhere along Siversky Donets, fierce artillery barrages are exchanged almost continuously, but it seems neither side is on advance. At least until it comes to Severodonetsk. There, it turned out the Russians have entered the village of Syrotyne, in southern outskirts of Severodonetsk — because the Ukrainian Genstab reported them being forced out, early this morning. Considering the RFA has secured all the ruins of Rubizhne, and has at least half of Vojvodinka, think this is a nice illustration for what kind of pressure are the Russians exercising upon Severodonetsk.
At least as serious — and another reason for this ‘unplanned summary’ — is the situation in the Popasna area. Over the last two days, the Russians have secured Oleksandropilia, north of Popasna, reached Pylypchatyne, west of Popasna, and pushed south to captured Novozvanivka. With this, they’ve widened their breach of the LOC by about 4–5km, and are about to convert this battle into one of manoeuvre.
MARIUPOL
Based on a number of reports, it seems an agreement was reached for a complete evacuation of the Ukrainian garrison. Yesterday, the CO of the garrison, Denis Prokopenko, announced that the defenders of Mariupol have completed their task, held out for 82 days, and now the time was to evacuate them. Almost simultaneously, the Keystone Cops in Moscow announced their agreement to remove wounded Ukrainian troops from the Azovstal complex to Novoazovsk (a town in Donetsk Region, held by Separatists).
Then, late the last night, Putin’s RT released a video shown civilian buses carrying Ukrainian troops out of the Azovstal plant, and announced that ‘300 militants were evacuated, about 50 of them wounded’. It added that 2,227 others should surrender in the morning. Two T-80s of the 36th Naval Infantry Brigade have been found in near-intact condition this morning.
This might mean: the battle for Mariupol is over, and it ended with Ukrainian defeat and evacuation of the garrison. Unsurprisingly, in Ukraine, there is already quite a hefty reaction, including accusations of treachery, shame, and similar. Unsurprisingly, Zelensky and his government are trying to explain it’s important to save experienced military personnel….
Cannot but agree with them: it’s all too easy to babble about ‘heroes’ — and to complain about treachery — from the safety hundreds, if not thousands of kilometres away. None of us stood the guard there and fought for 80+ days against overwhelming Russian forces, risking limbs and life: the troops of the Azov Regiment, 36th Naval Infantry Brigade, Territorial Defence, Border Guards, KORD, and some of the local police — did. And they fought until it made no sense to continue fighting.
SOUTH
Mikolayiv was hit by a volley of BM-27s, early on 16 May: Ukrainians hit back by artillery barrage of Chornobayivka airport.
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*The first thing the PKK did when taking over in much of north-eastern Syria, back in 2011–2012 was to reach an agreement with Assadists to take over. The second was to murder or force into exile the leaders of 13 local Kurdish political parties, and the third was to subject their movements to its control.
