Ukraine War, 20–21 May 2022
Good morning everybody!
Here’s another ‘mini-update‘, largely focusing on the Battle of Donbass — because the situation in the Popasna area remains a major crisis: there’s a major Russian breakthrough in this area, and the RFA is half-way through cutting off the concentration of Ukrainian forces in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.
North of Kharkiv, the Russian counterattack recovered Ternova — a place dominating the area along the Russo-Ukrainian border west of it — and then Rubizhne on Siversky Donets, thus pushing Ukrainian forces away from Vovchansk. Ukrainians then tried to flank this counterattack by attacking Vesele, but — apparently — without much success by now.
This Russian counterattack came as no surprise considering the big concentration of RFA forces in the Belgorod area, and in the process of recovering from mauling they have received in northern Ukraine of March and April - and even less so considering the importance of Vovchansk for the RFA’s logistics in the Izium area.
Indeed, and on its own, this is a minor setback for Ukrainians: Ternova was secured by a battalion of the Territorial Defence, ill-positioned to beat back a counter-attack of the rebuilt BTG From the 200th Motor Rifle Brigade, supported by plentiful of artillery. However, exactly why did the GenStab in Kyiv deploy a Territorial Defence unit at such a critical piece of real estate — is beyond my understanding.
Further south-east…. i.e. Izium area…
The RFA seems to have constructed a pontoon bridge on Siversky Donets near the place called Yaremivka, roughly half way between Izium and Svyatohirsk, and word is that it is back to attempting to cross the Siversky Donets in the Bilohorivka area, once again…. Considering what is going on in the Popasna area: no surprise.
…ah yes: and because they destroyed the Ukrainian Air Force, two times over by now, the Russians brought in one of RFA’s S-300V systems to the Izium area:
POPASNA CRISIS
Worst of all remains the combination of the 76th VDV Division and mechanised forces (foremost the 57th Guards Moto Rifle Brigade, but Separatist forces too) that continued its advance west and south of Popasna. After taking Trypilya, on Thursday, 19 May, they tied down Ukrainians holding a fortified hill near Volodymyrivka, while capturing that village, and then continued straight for Nova Kamyanka. The latter was secured by the RFA yesterday and is just 1–2km east of Soledar and Bakhmutske, and thus the crucial T1302 road, the main supply line for the troops in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.
Furthermore, the Russians widened this penetration by taking Lypove and Vasylivka, north of Trypillya and west of Vrubivka. As of this morning, they were inside the southern side of the latter town.
With other words: the Russians are advancing from Popasna towards north by bypassing the Ukrainian forces holding Komyshuvakha, Khram Svyatoho, Katerynika and Hirske, and they are doing so without making breaks to rest and regroup, in turn leaving Ukrainians too little time to react.
Ukrainians have flooded the Lunan River, but this had no effects upon the Russian advance: instead, the RFA brought in two additional BTGs — one each from the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade and the 336th Naval Infantry Brigade — and one of these is widening the breach of the Ukrainan frontline by advancing in southern direction: yesterday, it took the village of Vyskryva.
ANALYSIS
Some analysis…. Many wonder how comes the Russians are fighting this well in the Popasna area, and how long can they sustain such an operation?
Obviously, I’ve got no idea about all the details and condition of Russian and Ukrainian troops and what exactly are they facing and where; and, the fact that the RFA brought in at least a BTG, if not two, equipped with BMPT Terminators, is something that can be discussed endlessly.
However, a careful look at any decent map of this area is explaining everything — and then beyond any doubts.
Why? Because it’s explaining the RFA’s supply situation.
The RFA is fighting in battalion tactical groups, and these BTGs have a minimal capability to keep themselves supplied. For this purpose, each of tactical armies (every tactical army is controlling between 2–3 and 20 BTGs) has its own supply brigade. The number of such highly-specialised units is very limited: I think there are only 10–12 in all of the RFA, and they rely on trucks. However, this is not as important as it might appear because the RFA is even more dependent on the use of railways to keep its troops supplied. Not sure about the total number of railway brigades of the RFA, but think to recall reading there are about 20 of these.
In this war so far, the shortage of supply brigades resulted in a situation where every single tactical army was capable of simultaneously supporting the advance by only one BTG. But, in the Popasna area, the RFA is running an offensive involving some 5–6 BTGs.
How comes?
It’s simple. Contrary to the situation elsewhere in Ukraine, there is a excellent railway network in the Kadiivka-Alchevsk area, only 30km east of Popasna — i.e. in the area controlled by the Separatists already since 2014.
Moreover, by taking Popasna and then Volodymyrivka, the Russians have secured an additional branch of railway, which they can now connect to the system in the Kadiivka-Alchevsk area.
Pay attention: the RFA advance from Popasna on Vrubivka is run along another branch of railway, too.
With other words: the way this operation is run, they can bring their supplies by train straight to the frontlines. No need to try doing that by truck convoys: not only is the RFA meanwhile critically short on trucks, but its truck convoys remain one of primary targets for the Ukrainian artillery.
‘Problem solved’, and then a crucial problem — that of logistics. This is why the RFA is proving as capable of successful offensive operations in the Popasna area: its artillery can continue blasting Ukrainian positions day and night, the Guards’ Terminators can’t run out of ammo for their 30mm guns…
(Should there be any doubts, compare this with the situation — for example — north of Severodonetsk, where there is only one railway line — via Kremina, which is north-west of the town. Almost ‘no surprise’ the RFA took 3 months to get into the suburbs of Severodonetsk — by assaulting from north-east…)
What I still do not understand is the behaviour of the Ukrainian GenStab in regards of reinforcements, though. It seems it’s still the battered 24th Motor Rifle Brigade and the Donbass Battalion that are trying to slow down or even stop the Russian onslaught north and west of Popasna. Sure, it’s likely that these have been reinforced by several battalions from other units; and, no doubt, many of Ukrainian brigades meanwhile have 4–5, even 6 battalions — and several battalions from different other brigades have been rushed to the scene. But, expecting a single brigade — no matter how much reinforced — to hold off this onslaught… not sure this is a good idea, even more so considering that the further the Russians advance, the longer frontline this lonesome Ukrainian brigade has to defend.
This is of particular surprise for me considering the Ukrainian Army has at least two brigades securing the Siversk area, and another two securing Bakhmut alone. So, four brigades securing two places well behind the frontline, and sitting and waiting there — while the frontline is breached and in the process of crumbling…? Hm…
SOUTH
BTW, there are no good news from the south either. After beating back the local Ukrainian counterattack, on 14 May, the Russians reinforced their mauled 70th Motor Rifle Regiment by a BTG from the 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade (withdrawn from Mariupol), and managed to capture four villages south of Velyka Novosilka and east of Hulyaipole.
