Ukraine War, 21–22 June, 2022

Good morning everybody!

Once again, there are developments that shouldn’t be ignored, and thus here you are: the next summary.

AIR

The Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed one MiG-29 shot down near Apostolovo (Dnipro), on 20 June, and a Su-25 as shot down near Mazanovka (Kharkiv Oblast), yesterday — together with some 32 Ukrainian UAVs… Ukrainians reported a VKS Su-25 crashed in the Rostov Oblast, yesterday: apparently another collision with high-tension wires. (BTW, the reported serial RF-90958, Bort, 23 Yellow, crashed already back in 2011.)

BATTLE OF DONBASS

Kharkiv… apparently no news… except that the Russians demolished one of metro stations and should be preparing a new offensive for 25 June…

Severodonetsk….by now it’s obvious that, after failing to break through at Dolyna and Bohorodichne, in direction of Sloviansk, Dvornikov and Zhidko have re-deployed their forces for a new offensive on Severodonetsk. Word is that this became possible because they’ve got some 10 BTGs patched up by recently recruited reservists: these have received few days of refresher training and were then all shipped to Ukraine. This move was necessary because the forces involved in assaulting Severdonetsk were exhausted, but in a more promising position than those assaulting Sloviansk from the west.

Bitter fighting is reported from the Azot Works: so far, Ukrainian lines held. Reports are contradictory regarding civilians there: some say 300, others 500; some say the Russians wouldn’t permit their evacuation, others say they refused to be evacuated…

Of course, Ukrainian communications with defenders are tenuous: all the bridges over the Siversky Donets have been destroyed. Nevertheless, defenders are obviously getting enough supplies. I.e. the communication is perfectly intact, as is that with Ukrainian troops in Voronove and Boriske, nearby.

Lysychansk is under constant Russian shelling, and much of the population has been evacuated, but the situation there is under control.

It’s the situation south of the town that remains critical. Specifically: Toshkivka, about 10km south-east of Lysychansk. Two days ago, the place was reported as taken by the 4th Motor Rifle Brigade (Separatists); then there were reports that they were attacking from there on Myrna Dolyna and Bila Hora; then (yesterday morning) word was that the Ukrainian artillery cut them to pieces so badly the Separatists not only fell back on Toshkivka, but lost half the village too… meanwhile, word is that after a pitched battle, the Separatists have managed to cross the P66 and take Myrna Dolina, followed by Pidlisne. Foremost: this was confirmed as of this morning. Sorry for that unit, but — combined with photos below — that would mean that the 17th Tank was unlucky, once again, and had to withdraw from Ustynivka, too.

Captured Ukrainian T-72B.
….two destroyed Ukrainian BMP-1s, both probably knocked out in Toshkivka on 20 June.

Net result: after finding themselves not only under constant barrage from three sides (east, south and west), but — due to the fall of Pidlisne — almost cut off from their supplies, Ukrainians withdrew from Zolote, yesterday. As of this morning, they’re probably out of the eastern part of Komyshuvakha and Hirske, too (mind: heavy equipment was withdrawn already days ago).

Popasna Bulge…Russians spent the last two days taking Nyrkove, and then attacking Bilohorivka, Berstove and Mykolaivka. The T1302 road is still fully under Ukrainian control.

Donetsk area….after emptying several bigger ammo dumps in the Donetsk area of their content (that video is shown what’s it sounds like to be in a position close to an ammo dump in the process of being blown up), since two days Ukrainian artillery is heavily pounding the refinery in Verkhnokamianka. There are reports about massive conflagration and spread of fire. This refinery was producing most of fuels used by the Russians and Separatists fighting in the Popasna area. To me, this sounds like, ‘first their ammo, then their fuel…’: mind, Ukraine has no air force to do such a job, but it is getting ever more of 155mm artillery pieces from the NATO, and it’s meanwhile 22 June, and thus ever more of these are in operational service.

SOUTH

Let me start with the eastern side of Dnipro, this time: didn’t mention it for weeks, I think — because I consider an Ukrainian advance in direction of Crimea from southern Zaporizhzhya for a far better idea than a ‘frontal’ attack on Kherson… Anyway: the last few days there are ever more rumours about Ukrainian attacks and advances in this area. Word is, there’s an offensive in the direction of Tokmak. For the time being, though, early reports are indicating attacks on different parts of the frontline. For example, yesterday, Ukrainians took Pavlivka and pushed for Yehorivka, both south of Vuhledar (and north of Mariupol). That’s in the southern Donetsk. On the western side of this frontline, two or three days ago Ukrainians have liberated Polohy, south of Hulyapole.

Kherson…Ukrainian gov seems to be requesting everybody to keep zip-lip about developments in the Kherson Oblast. OK, fine, and understandable — especially considering all the hysteria spread by the social media. I do hope they’re going to tolerate if I go on, nevertheless. Anyway, west of Dnipro, and from north towards south, the situation looks something like this.

- Ukrainians are trying to get the last Russians out of Khershchenivka and Zolota Balka.

- Despite Russian reports about its destruction, the bridgehead between Andriivka and Davydiv Brid is still there, just a little bit smaller (this can change quite quickly; see below why)

- Ukrainians have reached the northern side of Snihurivka and are trying to kick the Russians out of their fortifications in Novopetrivka.

- After mopping up Kiselivka, the last two days, Ukrainians have reached Klapaya, 7–8km short of Kherson, and

- they have defeated the Russian counterattack on Oleksandrivka, retained Stanislav and are pushing for Shyroka Balka.

The 49th CAA has meanwhile suffered enough losses to withdraw much of the XX Army Corps from the northern Kherson Oblast closer to the city. With other words: from north towards south (along the western/right bank of the Dnipro).

Thus yes: this is getting more interesting by day…

Knocked out 2K22 Tunguska of the RFA, as found ‘somewhere in the South’, on or around 19 June 2022…

BLACK SEA/NAVAL

For a reconstruction of Ukrainian attacks on the Snake/Zmynyi Island based on Ukrainian sources and satellite photos, see here. Now for the Russian version — because this is rather funny. The Keystone Cops reported yesterday, that Ukrainians have ‘tried to capture Snake Island’ — apparently on 19 or 20 June. Furthermore, they say, this was a coordinated operation, including 15 (other?) UAVs and 2 Bayraktars, supported by one S-300 SAM-system deployed in the Ochakov area, and an RQ-4 Global Hawk of the US Air Force. Then they hit the island with Tochkas, followed by Uragans and M777s. By side that there is simply no ammunition with which M777s could reach the Zmynyi, but: the Russian air defences (apparently: Pantsyrs) should then have shot down everything that came their way: 13 UAVs, 4 Tochkas, 21 artillery rockets….probably all the incoming 155mm shells, too, because the Keystone Cops stress: nothing of Ukrainian ammunition has reached the Zmyni…

And, because this attempt failed, so the Keystone Cops, the Ukro-Nazis then attacked the BK-1 and Krym-1 gas production platforms (off-shore rigs). This (quote) ‘provocation’ set the BK-1 on fire and thus the Russians then hit the Shkolny AB near Odessa by two Oniks missiles, ‘destroying hangars for Ukrainian Bayraktar UAVs’, and then destroyed two M777s on the Kubansky Island (though the video supposed to confirm this was taken somewhere in the Donbass), plus two launchers for S-300s near Ochakov… and few symbols for (McDonnell-Douglas/Boeing) F-15 fighter bombers of the US Air Force, too… as obvious from the attached map (see below)…

With other words: everything there was destroyed, none of Ukrainians has survived, and not one Russian was even wounded. At least according to the Keystone Cops. Now you all know the complete truth…

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From Austria; specialised in analysis of contemporary warfare; working as author, illustrator, and book-series-editor for Helion & Co.

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Tom Cooper

Tom Cooper

From Austria; specialised in analysis of contemporary warfare; working as author, illustrator, and book-series-editor for Helion & Co.

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