Ukraine War, 23 August 2022
Good morning everybody!
We’re past the 180th day and about to reach 6 months of the Russian (re-)aggression on Ukraine, and thus it’s time for another update…
The Commander-in-Chief of the ZSU, General Zaluzhny, has released a new official figure for the number of casualties: ‘almost’ 9,000 killed since 24 February. There are many who have doubts this is the ‘complete number’, but, as usually, I’ll stay away from such discussions.
Vivid activity of the Ukrainian special forces and partisans has been reported from the occupied Crimea, the last few days — or at least there were spontaneous combustions, or kids were playing with cigarettes at several Russian ammunition depots and headquarters. Counting every single one of these is quite pointless at this point in time: there are not enough details to say what exactly happened there, and cumulative effects are much more important.
AIR/MISSILE/NAVAL WARFARE
Early on 21 August, Ukrainian air defences claimed to have shot down two Kalibr cruise missiles, and the air force claimed its pilots (i.e. one of MiG-29 and/or Su-27 interceptors?) to have shot down a Ka-52 helicopter.
Ukrainian air force continues flying about a dozen of air strikes a day (almost exclusively in the Kherson area); the VKS up to 60–70 (especially in the Kharkiv-, but also in the Kherson area). Both sides are still foremost employing the, ineffective/rarely effective ‘spray and pray’. Much more effective are Ukrainian strikes with AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles (run by Ukrainian MiG-29s, as expected): two S-300 SAM-sites were claimed as knocked out, on 21 August.
Ironically, this is not having a major impact upon the Russian capabilities to defend their troops, because the Keystone Cops in Moscow are nowadays using their Wunderwaffe S-300 SAMs as ballistic missiles, while ‘replacing’ these by S-350s and Buk M3s. When I’m talking about the use of S-300s as ballistic missiles: I really mean ‘by dozens’. For example, pending the Day of Flag, and then the Ukrainian Independence day, on 23–24 August, the government in Kyiv is warning its citizens about a large-scale Russian missile strike. Primary reason for concern is the growing concentration of VSRF’s S-300 SAM-units in southern Belarus: since Russians are critically short on other kinds of guided missiles, it is possible they might deploy these to strike the Kyiv area, just for example.
Word is, the Black Sea Fleet has at least three ships loaded with Kalibr cruise-missiles at sea now: they are expected to run strikes today, or tomorrow.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Generally, the Russians are back to attacking, especially with concentrated support of artillery — and then in several areas.
Kharkiv….after a day of break, the VSRF returned to shelling Kharkiv, yesterday, and striking it with S-300 SAMs. It run a number of air strikes on ZSU positions along the frontline in the Rubizhne area, because Ukrainians are using the same to shell Russian supply-links in the Vovchansk area.
Izium…lots of reconnaissance by minor Russian detachments, but since 2–3 days — when Ukrainians repelled 4–5 minor attacks in the general direction of Barvinkove — no new ground attacks. Places like Brazhkivka, Dovhenke, and Bohorodichne remain either no-man’s land or under Ukrainian control.
Siversk…fiercest fighting was reported from the Ivano-Darivka and Spirne, but all Separatists efforts have failed.
Bakhmut…eventually, the Russians failed to capture Soledar (see my last report); meanwhile, they’re back to shelling the village and Ukrainian positions around it. Instead, house-to-house fighting is reported from Bakhmutske. That said, it seems, the ZSU reinforced its artillery in this area to the degree where the VSRF and Separatists have a major problem when trying to cross the flat and open terrain in order to approach Ukrainian positions. In turn, the Russians are heavily shelling and constantly running spray and pray attacks.
That said, the Russians seem to have entered the southern side of Zaitseve (see my last report). Kodema is still holding out, despite Russian attacks from three directions (north-east, south, and south-west).
LOC… Generally, the ZSU still has far too few artillery to support its units along the LOC. Yes, the Separatist assaults on Krasnohorivka have failed, and thus the Ukrainian stronghold in Avdiivka remains firmly under the ZSU’s control, but that’s about all the ‘good news’ from the LOC itself.
Foremost, further south, the Russians are meanwhile in full control of Pisky. From there, but also from east and from south, they’re pushing over the open and flat terrain on Nevelske. The ZSU has reinforced the frontlines there by two battalions of Naval Infantry. My impression: far too little, much too late…
In a rare occurrence of that kind of recent weeks, yesterday, Ukrainian artillery blasted the HQ of one of Separatist units in Donetsk, and another ammo depot east of the city.
Ukrainian stronghold in Marinka was subjected to several attacks, the last few days (nearly all from the north) — all supported by extensive use of incendiaries — but held out.
At least there are good news from the southern verge of the LOC: Ukrainian defences of the line connecting Zolota Nyva with Pavlivka are holding out. Probably because the ZSU seems to have brought an (to me) entirely new unit to the area: 66th Mech Brigade.
Zaporizhzhya… the drama in Enerhodar is going on, with Russians deploying their units and stocking ammo there, then complaining about Ukrainian shelling, while much of the latter is actually of Russian origin — as can be gauged by Moscow’s attempt to set up a related meeting of the Security Council. Interestingly, it’s not the NPP that’s targeted, but the local thermal plant: thermal plants are one of primary Russian targets, the last few days.
Kherson… following the failure of latest Ukrainian attack in the Blahodatne area (stopped by the Russian artillery), three-four days ago, the VSRF launched three major counterattacks. The one on Blahodatne seems to have caused heavy losses to the Ukrainian artillery, resulting in the place being taken by the Russians.
The Russian counterattack from Stanislav on Oleksandrivka was successful in taking the latter, but then less successful when the Russians attempted to continue for Trarijske. The third hit the Inhulets bridgehead, but appears to have been less successful — perhaps because Ukrainians claimed the destruction of two radars, two 120mm mortars, a Giantsint-S and a Msta-S self-propelled howitzers in that area.
The VSRF and the VKS hit Mykolaiv with at least four S-300s and one Kh-31, yesterday. The latter was shot down. One or two Kh-59s were fired at an ‘infrastructue target’ by Su-35 in direction of Odesa: at least one scored a hit. Ukrainians report no casualties.
In turn, the ZSU is keeping the remaining Russian means of crossing the Dnipro under pressure (exactly the way it should), and has blasted both the Antonovsky Bridge (photo above) and the Kakhovka HPP with M142 HIMARS, yesterday. In both cases, hits have caused fires, indicating ‘something’ that was either passing over the bridges, or was involved in their repairs, went up in flames. RUMINT has it something ‘underway’ underneath the Antonovsky Bridge was hit, too, and there were at least 2–5 killed and/or missing, and up to 20 injured. AFAIK, that ‘underneath’ the Antonovsky Bridge was, probably, the pontoon bridge the Russians are constructing there.
