Ukraine War, 27 August 2022
Good morning everybody!
I know, it’s going to sound unfair towards all those holding the line and keeping a watch on the barbaric invaders on the other side, but cannot avoid the observation that developments on the frontlines have, generally, ‘settled down’, and there’s relatively little to report.
Quite a few in the West are ‘alarmed’ by Putin issuing a decree ordering an increase of the total manpower of the Russian Armed Forces up to 2 million. From my POV, it’s simple: the last such decree was authorising the armed forces of 1 million, and these couldn’t find more than about 850,000, perhaps 900,000. Thus, ‘good luck’ with finding yet additional volunteers now…
Ah yes and: the Scholz Administration in Germany is extremely proud. After six months of babbling and promises, the ‘first’ three of Flakpanzer Gepards have reached the battlefields of Ukraine….and Berlin has arranged that swap with Slovakia: 15 Leopard 2A4 MBTs from Germany to Slovakia, in exchange for the latter sending 30 BVP-1 (Czechoslovak version of the BMP-1 IFV) to Ukraine… it remains amazing with what kind of ‘achievements’ are certain politicians happy (indeed: proud), nowadays…
AIR/MISSILE/NAVAL WARFARE
On 24 August, Ukrainian Independence Day, the VKS flew around 200 sorties over Ukraine, causing no less than 190 air raid alerts.
Tu-22M-3s from Shaykovka AB were airborne and, reportedly, have deployed eight Kh-22s. Reportedly, four Kh-22 have hit the Synelnykove District, one seems to have hit something in the Kryvyi Rih area, another was shot down over Dnipro. Haven’t found much photos or videos shown the damage, though, and next to no reports about casualties. Tu-95MS’ were airborne over the Caspian Sea, too. Ukrainians claimed three VKS helicopters shot down during the day: two of these were said to have been Ka-52s. Haven’t found more than one video possibly indicating a damaged helicopter, either.
Foremost: it seems that the mass of air strikes were either of tactical nature, or mere demonstration flights, simulating attacks, but not releasing any kind of ammunition.
What the Russians did hit was the Chapline Railway Station in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — by a single Iskander-M quasi-ballistic missile. The Keystone Cops then claimed to have ‘destroyed a train with 200 Ukrainian militants’ and ‘packed with Western equipment’. Ukraine reported the death of 25 civilians, including two children (one of them in a car nearby) — and shown a video of a burned-out passenger train.
That said, a review of at least one of videos taken from a different position is revealing that the passenger train was hit while either passing by, or stopping next to a heavily-loaded freight train. I can’t really make out what is the freight in question, but there’s no doubt that this was damaged too. Below one of stills from the video in question.
Elsewhere, the VKS has continued its ‘War on Agricultural Depots’. For example, Yesterday, the Russians have hit 16 such objects in the Zaporizhzhya area, killing at least three civilians (a mother and her two children….). Whatever hangar they find, is promptly hit by PGMs like Kh-29 and Kh-59. As usually, every such attack is promptly declared for major success by the Keystone Cops in Moscow. The photo is shown one good example — and how much of ‘Western equipment and ammunition’ was knocked out inside, not to talk countless ‘Ukrainian militants’…
One 3M54 Kalibr cruise missile is known to have ruined a field path somewhere in southern Ukraine: that said, the expected major strike with cruise missiles did not take place. Apparent culprit was a storm in the Black Sea, which forced several warships of the Russian Navy back to the port.
Ukrainian HIMARS have repeatedly hit both the Antonovsky Road Bridge and the Nova Kakhovka Road Bridge, the last few days. There are grizzly videos of the aftermath of one of strikes, which definitely blew up ‘something’ — together with (gauging by their remnants) at least eight Russian troops. Both bridges are impassable again. Unsurprisingly, and as reported already, the Russians have intensified their works on constructing a massive pontoon bridge directly underneath the Antonovsky Bridge. This is consisting of large steel- and concrete-made sections:
Interestingly, other of their videos from this area are shown ‘barges only’, and ‘full of civilian vehicles’ — as if the VSRF’s priority would be to maintain civilian traffic over its precious military bridges… Unsurprisingly, that’s no deterrent for Ukrainian HIMARS-strikes.
Except for the two major crossings of the Dnipro, the Ukrainians hit the Darivskyi Bridge again — and disabled it, yesterday in the morning.
Perhaps more importantly, Ukrainians have hit the Hotel Stahanov in Kadiivka, used to base Russian troops. RUMINT has it that the Russians suffered over 200 casualties.
There are plenty of reports about Ukrainian UAVs ‘buzzing’ the skies of Crimea, the last few days. Apparently, somebody there is flying reconnaissance: searching for suitable targets — and checking their defences.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Generally, combat activity in most sections of the frontline is low. The Russians are trying to re-gain the initiative by running ‘reconnaissance here and there’ but, in grand total, none of efforts in question is ‘something special’, or particularly effective. For example, in the Izium area, the VSRF withdrew back to Andriivka, Brazhikivka and north of Dovhenke; in the Siversk area, the VSRF is heavily shelling the town and Soledar, south of Siversk; Russian PMCs and Separatists are still trying to push on Bakhmut and Kodema, but not making any progress.
Actually, there are more reports about activities of Ukrainian partisans and special operation forces behind the Russian frontlines. For example, in Berdyansk, ‘somebody’ blew up the car of Oleksandr Kolesnikov, one of top Ukrainians collaborating with Russians. The character in question died in a hospital. In other cases, Ukrainian guerrilla is ‘just’ collecting and providing targeting information for long-range artillery- and HIMARS-strikes. Unsurprisingly, the Russians rushed to declare all such activity for ‘terrorism’…
SOUTH
Kherson….since securing Blahodatne, about a week ago, the Russians are pushing on Partyzanske and the Pervomaiske area. Minimalistic aim seems to be to reach the Inhulets river in this area, i.e. force Ukrainians back to its western side. Measured by the total extension of the frontline, this is a ‘diminutive’ effort: one run by 3–4 BTGs on a frontline that’s about 5–6km wide. But: it’s one of very few offensive operations either side is running these days. And, apparently, it’s all the reinforced 49th CAA can do right now. This operation is supported by massive volumes of artillery, and dozens of air strikes (all along the ‘spray and pray’ principle). Pervomaiske is the principal target, but the Russians are attacking Kvitneve and Kyselivka, too. Notably, Kyiv is zip-lip about the situation there.
Perhaps as a diversion, the Russians have also re-attacked Oleksandrivka, on the coast, two-three days ago: as soon as they moved out into the open, they were hit by Ukrainian artillery and forced to withdraw.
