Ukraine War, 30 December 2022
Good morning everybody!
Chances are slim because, gauging by the news of the last two-three days, a lot is going on in Ukraine, but: I hope this will be my last ‘update’ or ‘summary’ (whichever way you like it) for this year. I might manage to continue my ‘air warfare update’, tomorrow or the day later.
Up front, and for those still fearing some sort of a ‘Russian re-invasion from Belarus’: according to the Head of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, the number of VSRF troops deployed inside Belarus increased to about 10,200. That’s far too little for any kind of a new offensive — on Kyiv, for example — even if this would be supported by the entire armed forces of Belarus (which I do not expect to happen).
But, it is enough to keep Ukrainians on their toes, and force the GenStab-U into holding several brigades back, instead of sending them as reinforcements to the Donbass…
AIR/MISSILE WARFARE
The last Ukrainian attack on the Engels AB (see my previous report), seem to have resulted in the death of three VKS technicians, all associated with Tu-160 bombers. That said, no major damage on the base or its facilities has been identified on commercial satellite photographs available so far.
RUMINT has it, the Russians then shot down their own Su-24 — while their air defences were firing at incoming Ukrainian UAVs. Of course, this remains unconfirmed.
The last three days, Putin/Surovikin are running something like ‘around the clock’ missile offensive on Ukraine. During the night from 28 to 29 December, they have deployed Iranian-made Shahed-131/136 LPGMs to target the Ukrainian power grid in the Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa Oblasts. Five were shot down over the former, while some of those underway to the latter hit a TPP operated by the DTEK (for 22nd time). The facility is still out of service.
A much more massive attack took place early on 29 December, when a total of 69 cruise missiles (including 6 Kh-22s and Kh-32s, Kh-31Ps, Kh-101s — some of these manufactured only recently — and Kh-555s, and sea-launched Kalibrs), 11 Iranian-made Shahed-131/136 LPGMs, and a number of S-300 SAMs were deployed starting around 07.00hrs local time, to strike infrastructure facilities in 10 oblasts of Ukraine.
As usually, there was a fierce reaction from Ukrainian air defences: all 11 LPGMs and 54–58 other missiles were claimed as shot down — five of the latter by MANPADS. One of Ukrainian S-300s crashed near the village of Harbacha, in Brest Oblast of Belarus.
Minsk promptly declared this for a ‘provocation’, making me wonder what is Lukashenko calling it when he lets two Russian armies invade Ukraine from his country…? ‘Kindergarten party’….?!?
In the Lviv Oblast, Ukrainian air defences shot down four out of six incoming missiles. The other two hit a power substation, knocking out electricity for Lviv and some 290 towns and villages around it. In Kyiv, a series of detonations was heard from two districts and Ukrainians claimed a total of 16 incoming missiles as shot down, before it became known that at least one industrial facility and several elements of the power grid have been hit. Three people were injured. No less than 21 incoming missiles were claimed as shot down over the Odesa Oblast, indicating that the air defences there have been significantly bolstered. However, enough Russian missiles came through to hit ’10 object of critical infrastructure’: see power plants and different elements of the power grid in the Kyiv and Odessa area. Have no doubt, this is further worsening the already dire electricity situation in much of the country. There are water-supply-problems in Lviv, Kyiv, and Odesa, too.
Additionally, the Russians fired over 50 rockets each into the Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, on 29 December alone. At least one civilian was killed in Kharkiv, and the metro has been stopped. Kherson and Nikopol are constantly rocketed, too: about a dozen of people were wounded when the Russians hit a maternity ward in Kherson, while in Nikopol, the Russians damaged a gas pipeline and are doing their best to destroy the local elements of the power grid.
During the night from 29 to 30 December, the Russians launched a stream of Shahed-131/136 LPGMs over south-eastern Ukraine. Air-raid sirens were sounded at 23.48hrs local time in Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, and in the Zaporizhzhya Oblasts: Ukrainians claimed 10–12 as shot down (five of these over the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, seven over the Kyiv Oblast), and all-clear was sounded around 00.29hrs of 30 December.
In turn, the GenStab-U reported a series of HIMARS-strikes on Russian headquarters and supply depots in Tokmak, Tytove, Chernihivka, Pology, and Berdyansk — all of these in southern Zaporizhzhya. There are lots of reports about M142s running intensive barrages on Russian field headquarters and troop concentrations in the Bakhmut area.
Think that everybody’s free to gauge for him/herself which of two ‘fighting methods’ is more effective….
Ah yes, and: a video surfaced shown the Russians blowing up a Ka-52 that made emergency landing — apparently, ‘too close for comfort’ to the Ukrainian positions.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Kupyansk-Svatove… There are lots of reports about fighting in the forest between Hryanykivka and Tavilzhanka, east of Dvorichne. Apparently, Ukrainians are pushing through this forest on Tavilzhanka, the Russians are shelling them; the Russians counterattacked into that forest, and Ukrainians are shelling them…
Further south, Ukrainian presence (92nd Mech) inside Pidkuichansk was confirmed again: the Russians are counterattacking the place and the local section of the P07/P66 from the north now (from Kuzemivka and Kryvoshyivka).
Another dozen of kilometres further south: the Russians are also attacking Andriivka from the Dzherelne area.
Kremina….Something like the ‘biggest news’ of the last two days is the — reported/supposed — ‘liberation of Kremina’. Correspondingly, ZSU should have breached the Russian defences and is mopping up already for two days. Sorry, so far, haven’t received or found any kind of confirmation for this: as afar as I can say, there is bitter fighting in the forests north and south of the town, and Ukrainians are making slow advances, but they’re not inside Kremina, yet.
Siversk…two days ago, reports began surfacing about ‘liberation of Bilohorivka’. The one on the Siversky Donets. No idea what should this mean, then the place was under Ukrainian control for something like month. At least.
Bakhmut… gauging by reports in the Ukrainian social media, the VSRF is back to…. well, at least trying to deploy main battle tanks in the Bakhmut area, again. Apparently from the area of Yakovlivka in direction of Vesele, due north, and Rozdolivka, north-west. So far, without much success. A little bit strange ‘tactics’ there: Yakovlivka was taken (at immense cost) in order to ‘outflank’ Soledar and thus Bakhmut from the north. But now, after all the attacks on Soledar from the north, they’re attacking further north….? Hm…
BTW, closer to Bakhmut, and as far as can be meanwhile said, the Russians — although claiming they have advanced closer on Pidhorodne — seem to have lost even the control that petrol station at the joint of M-03 and T1302 highways. They might be on its eastern side, with Ukrainians on the western. A ‘minor’ battle there, but a very important one, and also one both sides are going to remember for generations.
Finally, the Wagner spent the last two days to run repeated assaults into Opytne, and to bypass this suburb to the west, yesterday. This was quite a successful attack after all: brought them up to the town centre, and pushed Ukrainians back to the area of the Mahazyn 24 supermarket.
South of Optyne, Wagner’s convicts spent the last two days assaulting Klishchivka…at such a high price, I’m lacking words to describe that massacre any more…
With other words: Bakhmut remains firmly under Ukrainian control. Even if there are days when the ZSU suffers over 100 ‘wounded in action’, the fact is that the Russians are losing 5–6 times that many killed troops, while the CASEVAC/MEDEVAC on the Ukrainian side is functioning ever better. Under these conditions, I simply see no way for Putin, Surovikin, or St Peter and Paul to change anything.
Avdiivka…. think, this video (shown strikes by LPGMs deployed by teh Ukrainian Omega SF-unit) is summarising it nicely.
Marinka…Finally, the last two days, the Russians are shelling and assaulting on the entire length of the frontline from Krasnohorivka down to Pobieda, north and south of Marinka (south-west of Donetsk). Might have made some advances measured in dozens of metres, too.
SNIPING
This one, ‘for the records’: word is that the world-record in long-range sniping shot stands at some 3,540m, and was scored in Iraq. Ukrainians are reporting that their sniper from the 73rd Naval Centre for Special Forces scored a kill from 2,710m, which is a record in this war.
