Ukraine War, 30 September 2022: Lyman Pocket

Most important bits and pieces from the Lyman area today:

At 14.30hrs local time, the GenStab-U officially announced that the Russian ‘Lyman Group’ is encircled in Lyman and Zarichne.

Previously, the entire last night and this morning, the Russian social media was brimming with reports about withddrawal of remaining troops from Drobysheve, fall of Stavky, and preparations for withdrawal from Lyman to Zarichne.

Seems, this did not work: Ukrainians are heavily shelling the road from Lyman to Zarichne, then liberated Torske, and cut off the road to Kremina — and that by advance from the north and the south.

This was the situation as of early in the morning:

….and this as of this afternoon:

Don’t ask me, please: no idea how many Russians are inside the pocket. Know only that — between others — entire or at least elements of following Russian and Separatist units were inside, the last few days:

- Bars-13

- Bars-16 (also known as ‘Kuban’ unit; this unit used to have 1,000 combatants; about 400 were inside Lyman)

- 208th ‘Cossack’ Motor Rifle Regiment (LPR)

- 503rd GMRR/19th MRD (was holding Torske, i.e. the way in and out)

- 753rd GMRR

Of interest is that the ‘final blow’ — the move that closed the pocket — apparently came from the north-east: by an Ukrainian advance over Ivanivka, Bilohorivka, Terny, and Yampolivka into the eastern side of Zarichne (Torske was cleared of the Russians before that, but, apparently, from the south).

BTW №1: considering Putin was ‘busy giving moronic speeches and drinking vodka while celebrating today’, and the withdrawal began around that time, but seems to have been stopped afterwards, I wonder: how much is it so that ‘somebody else attempted to get at least some of the troops out before it would be too late’ — but Putin then overruled that order….?

BTW №2: since this afternoon, some of Russian social media is reporting a counteroffensive towards Lyman from the direction of Kremina. Guess, more news are to follow in the morning.

Elsewhere….

Kupyansk bridgehead: Kurylivka was completely liberated. Actually, ZSU should be somewhere down the line of Virshana-Ivanivka, meanwhile, but this with Kurylivka is ‘official’.

The Russian defences there are crumbling in part because the HQ of the 144th Motor Rifle Division in Svatove received a devastating M142 HIMARS-attack on around 20 September (here additional details), and ever since at least five local depots have been blown up, too.

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Tom Cooper

From Austria; specialised in analysis of contemporary warfare; working as author, illustrator, and book-series-editor for Helion & Co.