Ukraine War, 4–5 June 2022
Good morning everybody!
There were lots of ‘small-scale’ news over the last two days, but most of them were indicative of the Russian assault on Ukraine slowing down. Indeed, in grand total, it seems the Russians are beyond the point where they could achieve a major breakthrough any more: even if still in possession of superior artillery, they hare squandered the mass of their well-trained regulars and best equipment in the first three months of war. What’s left now are poorly-trained reservists out of condition for more than to ‘stabilise’ the frontline.
Here it’s important to observe that, doctrine- — and thus equipment-wise — the RFA and Separatists are ill-equipped to ‘just hold the line’: they’re actually equipped for airborne- and mechanised assaults. Because of this, and because of losses suffered as a consequence of Putin’s insistence on continuous advances, they have no other options but to continue attacking.
In turn, despite endless Western waiting for Ukrainians to collapse….well, Ukrainians are not collapsing.
AIR
Yesterday in the morning, the Russians run a high-profile missile strike on the Darnytsky Car Repair Plant (DVRZ) of the Ukrzaliznytsia (Ukrainian Railways) in Kyiv, supposedly in attempt to destroy ‘stored shipment of Western weapons’. Ukrainians say, the weapons deployed were four cruise missiles released by a Tu-95 of the VKS underway over the Caspian Sea. For their part, the Keystone Cops released videos indicating deployment of Kh-59s. Ukrainian authorities claimed one missile as shot down before reaching its target; confirmed that there was damage, but categorically denied the presence of any kind of armament there, and reported one person as injured.
As usually, attacks on Kyiv are causing much uproar in the West, where the media was brimming with reports about Putin’s threats to ‘strike back’ at those supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine. Is a nice confirmation that the skill of ‘reading between the lines’ remains entirely unknown in the West: after all, nobody is supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine, while Putin has no other political program or can do anything else, but bluff, threat, and blackmail.
Ah yes, and while Putin went on to add that the VKS is quasi ‘breaking bones’ and destroying everything in its way, a (high-flying) Su-30 or Su-34 was shot down somewhere in the Orikhiv area (south of Zaporizhzhya). That said, there are reports this was an Ukrainian Su-27 (or MiG-29), shot down by own forces, too.
A VKS Ka-52 and Su-25 were claimed as shot down somewhere in the Donbass area, yesterday, but couldn’t find a confirmation for this yet (Ka-52 was claimed by the troops of the 25th Airborne Assault Brigade by an Igla MANPADS).
This morning, one incoming cruise missile was shot down over Poltava Oblast.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Kharkiv….by now it’s clear that the Russian counterattack on Vesele, Ternova and Rubizhne ended ina failure. Indeed, Ukrainians are reportedly widening their bridgehead east of the Siversky Donets, between Verkhnia in the north and Khotimlya in the south.
Izium….renewed Russian assaults on Dovhenke have been repelled, but an attack north of that area did reach Bohorodychne (before being stopped there). There are reports — but no definite confirmation — that this forced Ukrainians to evacuate Studenok, even more so because the RFA and LNR-Separatists have opened their assaults on Svyatohirsk, further east.
South of Lyman, the RFA and LNR-Separatists have reached Stary Karavan, but the place remains under at least partial Ukrainian control, in turn preventing a crossing of the Siversky Donets and assaults on Raihodorok and Sloviansk.
Severodonetsk….what exactly is going on inside the town is not entirely clear. While one version is insistent that Ukrainians have recovered about 80% of this town — i.e. that they secured everything up to the Bus Station and the MZhK District, and the Russian media is reporting the loss of another general (Major General Roman V. Kutuzov, CO 5th 35th CAA?) and multiple Wagner mercenaries, there are voices that this counterattack was not (and is not) as successful. In turn, the death of at least four additional foreign volunteers became known, including a German citizen.
Further east of the town, Voronove and Borivske seem to be under Ukrainian control, also most of Ustynivvka and half of Toshkivka.
Popasna Bulge…The RFA and Separatists continued attacking Bilohorivka, Berestove and Mykolaivka, yesterday. Despite countless Russian claims, Komyshuvakha remains ‘at least largely’ in Ukrainian hands, just like most of Zolote (at least the western part and the centre), and Katerynivka.
SOUTH
The Russian ‘counteroffensive’ on Ukrainian bridgehead at Davydiv Brid has petered out (at most, the RFA has recovered most of Davydiv Brid in the north and reached the outskirts of Andriivka in the south) and Ukrainians are back to attacking Kostromka and Bruskynske.
