Ukraine War, 7–8 May 2022

Good morning everybody!

Here is my summary for most important (known) developments in Ukraine of the last two days, 7 and 8 May 2022.

Up front, it took me longer today, because the amount of disinformation aired by both sides is meanwhile disgusting. I know that 9 May is a ‘charged’ day for both sides, but really: just dissecting all the fake news, claims and counter-claims of the last 2–3 days…. the mass of that is simply a waste of time and I find it nothing but absurd that anybody on either side is wasting human lives, energy and time for so much nonsense. But then, some say that the World is turning thanks to human stupidity, not because of physical laws…

STRATEGIC

Today I’ll address something that is circulated within the social media for days (if not weeks) already, but largely ignored by both the mainstream media and authorities both in Kyiv and in Moscow. The last few weeks, we’ve seen plentiful of evidence for RFA troops being piss-poor trained, underequipped (except by ammunition), and even under-fed. That much is clear. However, what we do not get to hear often enough is exactly the same situation on the Ukrainian side. For example:

• Troops are sent to the frontlines with minimal (if any) training: there are entire units that were first rushed to recover, for example, Irpin — before being given any kind of training at all.
• Brigades of the Territorial Defence, supposed to defend the territories where their staff is living, are meanwhile converted into manoeuvring units, re-deployed and rushed into combat to replace losses — well away from their homes.

Certainly enough, while none of units in question refused to fight, there is a growing dissent. People understand the chaos, and urgency, and are eager to fight and ready to pay the price. But, troops demand at least a week of training to learn how to coordinate their platoons and companies.

Sadly, but as expected, nothing similar is valid for many of Westerners that volunteered to fight for Ukraine. Sure, most of them are combat experienced, and their help is welcome. However, they’re used to fight for the side in possession of air superiority and absolute firepower superiority. Thus, whenever in contact with enemy, they take cover and start requesting artillery support and air support and orbital support and whatever else — which the Ukrainians simply cannot provide. And then they are (quote), ‘like what the fuck?’

Unsurprisingly, many have left — ‘in disgust’.

Well, gentlemen: welcome to realities of the war in Ukraine. Not everybody is fighting his/her wars by the means of vast material superiority, and only if supplied by steaks, beers, and sun lotions.

AIR

Russian air defences in the Belogorod area were busy most of 7 May, shooting SAMs at….nobody knows what (ah yes: and the campaign of ‘spontaneous fires/special combustions’ is going on, and on and on, all over Russia…)

Reportedly, the VKS spent the last two days bombing Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk area. Might sound strange, but considering the crucial condition of Ukrainian units there, that was probably the safest thing its famed Su-30s, Su-34s, and Su-35s can do. Ah yes: and the air show during the parade in Moscow was cancelled. Official explanation: ‘inclement weather’… hm…

‘Cruise-missiles-wise’, the Russians seem to have targeted several air bases and airfields where they suspect the activity of the Ukrainian air force and its UAVs, the last few days. On top of that, they’ve bombed Odessa Airport — and that just as three Ukrainian Su-27SM1/PM1s were parked there (apparently, these were involved in ops against Zmiyniy, together with few Su-25M1). I know, this is quite estranging considering they’ve claimed the Ukrainian Air Force for ‘destroyed’, over a month ago. But, well, that’s life…

BTW, short on cruise missiles, the Keystone Cops are now sending the VKS to fly strikes with its old precision-guided weapons, foremost Kh-59s. Early on 8 May, a missile released by a Su-34 or Su-35S in direction of Odesa was claimed as shot down short of the city, as was a Forpost UAV guiding that attack. In the afternoon, another three missiles were released: one was claimed shot down, but the other two hit a residential area. Late on 8 May, the Ukrainians claimed to have shot down two additional Kh-59s released from a VKS fighter jet approaching Odessa. No Ukrainian casualties were reported.

NAVAL

Sometimes on 6–7 May, Bayraktars of the Ukrainian Navy have knocked out two Raptor-class fast amphibious craft, and then went on to knock out another Raptor-class amphibious vessel carrying a TOR TELAR, and then a Mi-8AMTSh sent to bring in supplies. Unsurprisingly after all of these blows, the Russian garrison there is desperate: correspondingly, early on 8 May, the Keystone Cops claimed this to have destroyed an Ukrainian assault attempt, downed two Ukrainian Su-24s, a Mi-24 helicopter, and three Bayraktars — for a total of four Ukrainian aircraft, four helicopters, and three UAVs, plus…. Oh dear: I’m only surprised they didn’t claim the downing of several flying saucers and the capture of few Mars People, too…

Considering all the recent Ukrainian strikes on the Zmiyniy Island, it’s little surprising that nearly all the buildings that used to be there have been destroyed. This in turn is used by some Russians to claim their garrison was withdrawn and the Ukrainians are pounding an empty island…

BATTLE OF DONBASS

The Ukrainian advance north of Kharkiv run into a the defences of Kozacha Lopan, which the RFA converted into a ‘fortified forward base’. As far as is known, the Ukrainians are pushing from the west and from the south, via Tsupivka. Not sure how much longer can the 6th CAA withstand this offensive without collapsing and falling back to the border of Russia: RFA units known to have been in this part of Ukraine have melted away, and its now on the Marines of the 61st and 336th Naval Infantry Regiments to stop the Ukrainian advance… But hey: never mind. The Russians are now proudly shown photos of a ‘Su-35 over Kharkiv’…

Izium area…there are no news about any kind of Ukrainian offensive there. Only indications that the Ukrainian artillery is shelling a lot. Indeed, because many are using such online appearances like the NASA’s FIRMS to gauge where are the frontlines, let me remind you about one thing: FIRMS is shown fires, and fires usually appear in areas hit by artillery. ‘Many fires’ in the forests west of Izium, and east of the town, do not mean the ‘frontlines are already there’: more than anything else, they indicate that these areas are heavily shelled by the Ukrainian artillery — and that ‘something was hit there and set on fire’. Nothing else.

Anyway…The RFA is said to have brought in two BTGs from the 35th CAA to support whatever was left of the 2nd GTA in an assault in direction of Barvinkove. Ironically, Ukrainians are holding Vinopilya and Novy Dmytrivka west of the Russian advance on Barvinkove, and Dovhenke, east of it. Means: just in order to reach their starting points, the RFA troops must pass down a literal ‘corridor’ that is under constant fire of the Ukrainian artillery, anti-tank missiles, anti-material rifles, heavy machine guns, and snipers. This insanity does sound like Dvornikov’s creation: I still — and vividly — remember photos and videos of dozens of Assadists and IRGC/Hezbollah hacked to pieces while running attacks under similar conditions in north-western Syria of 2015–2016…

Further east… What’s left of a BTG from the 90th Tank Division has taken Krymky, and is pushing like hell on Oleksandrivka, a village 5km north of Sviatohirsk. Some might recall me mentioning the latter: is in the middle of a big forest, and thus a perfect place to defend. Now, to an amateurish nobody like me, alone the idea of driving tanks into a forest held by enemy infantry equipped with plentiful of anti-tank weapons appears to be another insanity. Still, two days ago, I was almost sure the RFA has secured Oleksandrivka. As of this morning, seems this was not the case. Instead, Ukrainians insist the situation there is….sigh… ‘complicated’. Frankly, I hate the use of that expression. The situation is rather ‘obvious’: the Russians trying to outflank a village in a dense forest full of Ukrainian troops, all of whom are eager to fight, but many of whom are poorly trained. What a surprise there’s such a chaos, and so many losses, I doubt any of local commanders can say what of his units is where — or if they’re still existent.

Further east…. At least there are not that many trees around Shandryholove: the RFA has managed to penetrate the local Ukrainian defences, but not to secure the place. To some surprise, Lyman is still holding out: which is, the Russians are still 2–3km outside the place.

Now to that Russian pontoon bridge on Siversky Donets: Ukrainians claim to have ‘ambushed’ the Russian bridgehead, ‘north of Siversk’. OK, that’s about 40km east of Slovyansk. But, how does one ‘ambush a bridgehead’? Either they launched a counterattack, destroyed the bridgehead and then the bridge, or — and far more likely — they blasted that bridge by artillery and then photographed it from a mini-drone. The attached photo appears to be indicating the latter. I remain sceptic, though, and, until proven wrong, consider this a temporary success at most. The times of the RFA officers acting stupid are over. Mention the word ‘bridge’ and they’re like rottweilers: rushing all available forces in that direction, crossing, and trying to expand the bridgehead.

Now some deduction: considering the de-facto Ukrainian ‘silence’, let’s assume the worst-case scenario. In such case, the conclusion is simple: the Russians have strong presence on the southern bank of Siversky Donets, probably in the Serebryanka area. That’s 7–8km north of Siversk, half-way in between Slovyansk and Lysychansk — which in turn would explain why there are reports that the latter is heavily shelled, the last two days. A possible indirect confirmation would be the Russian air strike on a school in Bilohorivka, 9km east of Serbryanka, yesterday: reportedly, over 60 out of 90 civilians taking shelter in its basement were killed.

That is some very, very bad news.

Severodonetsk area: in the air… well, I guess one could meanwhile walk on all the artillery shells fired by both sides all along the frontline from Rubizhne down to Popasna. The Russians and Separatists are definitely in Vojvodinka, in between Rubizhne and Severodonetsk. Why? Because Ukrainians are not mentioning this with a single word. That said, I do not understand why the RFA launched that attack at all: even if it could completely secure Rubizhne, that would change very little in total.

On the contrary, assaults on Popasna by the Wagner PMC and whatever the RFA managed to salvage from Mariupol, have, finally, proven successful in driving surviving troops of the 24th Mech out of the moonscape that was once this town. Ukrainians now say they have withdrawn to more favourable positions, indeed ‘into fortifications prepared over the last few days’, but hey: this is just yet more bad news. Combined with that bridge north of Siversk, it means the two prongs of the Russian attack on the northern section of the old LOC are now only some 30km away from each other. I.e. the concentration of Ukrainian troops in the Severodonetsk area (and that’s at least 8–9 brigades!) is now seriously in danger of getting encircled (atop of being dead-tired and shell-shocked after two months of high-intensity fighting).

MARIUPOL

Two days ago the command of the Azov claimed that in two months of war the unit ‘destroyed’ about 2,500 Russian troops and 60 tanks in Mariupol, and damaged another 30 tanks. The figures might be correct — alone because the 150th MRD was seriously mauled while assaulting the city. But, I doubt all of these were killed, wounded, or destroyed by the Azov alone: after all, the garrison of Mariupol is including troops of the 36th Naval Infantry Brigade, 12th and 21st Territorial Defence Brigades, KORD, and even a handful of Belarussian volunteers — and these are fighting and holding out just as well as that one battalion of the Azov Regiment, and that without any kind of white supremacist ideologies.

But, I digress…yesterday, Captain Sviatoslav Palamar, commander of the Azov in Mariupol (actually: deputy of Denys Prokopenko, who’s in charge of what is left of the garrison), reported the Azovstal complex was hit by 25 air strikes, including three by Tu-22M-3 bombers. The area is constantly hit by artillery, mortars, and tanks. Then he went on to stress that he can’t say if all the civilians have been evacuated, the last three days, because they have no means to know. Moreover, he criticised cynical politicians who claim successful evacuation while dozens of thousands of civilians have been killed, and only a few hundred actually evacuated. Palamar went on to stress they’re still well-supplied with ammo, even if short on food and water. Foremost, that they have around 600 wounded who are in urgent need of evacuation, too; that the garrison is critically short on medication and, because the Russians have destroyed the hospital, out of condition to provide care for the wounded. He repeated his calls upon the ‘politicians’ and the international community to organise an urgent evacuation of the troops, too…

Illia Samoilenko, intel officer of the 36th Naval Infantry Brigade, then accused his former commander, Volodymyr Baraniuk, for abandoning the unit and acting on his own. On 12 April. Samoilenko said, instead of withdrawing with the mass of brigade into the Azovstal complex, and without informing the rest of the garrison, Baraniuk attempted to breach out of the siege with a group of operational tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and ammunition. In turn, he thus left the Ilyich Plant unprotected, which was promptly exploited by the Russians to collapse the defences… (this was then confirmed in Prokopenko’s appearance, too).

As if to confirm their complaints, the RIA Novosti then published an ‘interview’ with Baraniuk, and his Chief-of-Staff, Dmytro Kromiankov: both were captured while ‘trying to leave’ the Azovmash Works…

In this video, Baraniuk is describing problems they’ve encountered while trying to deploy Javelins in urban areas:

Conclusion: the accounting for Mariupol and the loss of the garrison has commenced…

SOUTH

There are lots of reports about Mykolayiv being hit by ‘missiles’, but I guess this should mean Russian artillery. And there are rumours about some sort of Ukrainian offensive in the Zaporizhzhia area, but nobody would provide any kind of details…