Ukraine War, 7 March 2023
Hello everybody!
I’m still very busy with my work, thus this is going to be another brief update.
AIR WAR/MISSILE WARFARE
According to official Kyiv, during the night from 5 to 6 March, the Russians released a stream of 15 Shahed-136 UCAVs, from the Bryansk area: Ukrainians claimed 13 of these as shot down.
Over the last 24 hours, the PSU slowly increased the number of its combat sorties (from around 10–11 a day towards 14–15 a day), when the Russians claimed three of its aircraft and helicopters shot down:
- 1x Su-27 (by VKS interceptors) in the ‘Trudolenivka’ area (Zaporizhzhya)
- 1x Mi-8 (means not mentioned) in the ‘Novopavlovka’ area (Donetsk)
- 1x MiG-29 (by air defences) in the ‘Krasnoarmeysk’ area (Donetsk).
The increased PSU activity might be related to the deployment of JDAM-ER PGMs (‘announced’ few weeks ago).
So far, haven’t seen any evidence for such Ukrainian losses, but that’s usually taking at least a few days — if not longer. For example, there’s still a number of VKS losses from February and March last year (here another one related to the fighting in the triangle Voznesensk-Bashtanka-Mykolaiv, of about a year ago), which are becoming known only now. It’s nothing better in regards of the months ever since….
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Generally, the Rasputitsa is here, the soil is soft and the mud deep, and thus the pace of movement by both parties in this war slowed down by quote some. That said, the fighting is going on: the mud is only adding to the suffering of combatants.
Kremina… The 25th Airborne has joined the 92nd Mech in the business of smashing the Russians in the Neveske-Chervonopopivka area, and word is that it’s actually already east of the P66 highway. Further south, the Russians are trying to stop the Ukrainian advance into southern Kremina with constant counterattacks.
BTW, RUMINT has it that the VSRF is re-deploying some of still intact units from the Group Tsentr (responsible for Kremina), down to the Vuhledar area (they’re definitely hauling lots of reinforcements there). If this is truth, Gerasimov’s ‘biiiiiiiiiiiig’ offensive in this area would be definitely over, and even Kupyansk might be safe (for the time being). Mind: this is an IF: right now, anything else than ‘certain’.
Bakhmut….Generally, the Russians are trying to resume their offensive with advances from Berkhivka and Yahidne in western direction, and to mop up the area east of the Bakhmutovka River. That was what they were trying the last three days: while they have definitely secured the Zabakhmutovka District, I’m currently not sure how much were they successful in regards of operations west of the town.
That said, atop of all the bad news from this town of the last week, the one making me seriously concerned (enough to start writing this update) arrived this morning: Wagner claims to have secured the Ukrainian fortification atop of ‘that hill above Klishchivka’ (do they really call it the ‘Red Hill’, or something of that kind, meanwhile?) and have shown a video from inside the local trenches and fortifications.
Ironically, they claim it took them three days to conquer it; ironically, the mass of online-mappers is shown this hill as ‘under Russian control’ for at least a month. Actually: this was the pillar of Ukrainian defences of Bakhmut, and the reason why the ZSU held out in this area as long as it did. The Russians spent over a month assaulting it, and suffered immense casualties there. As long as Ukraine was in control, I was not that much concerned: now I’m going to join those questioning the ability of the ZSU to hold out in this town, and questioning the further purpose of this battle.
Why that? With that hill in Ukrainian hands, the Russians could shell the T0506 and T0504 (and ‘secondary’ ways in between), but couldn’t cut off the T0504, couldn’t conquer Ivanivske, and couldn’t advance on Chasiv Yar. Now they can. And with that, they can cut off the — already muddy — supply links to the ZSU’s Bakhmut garrison: Ukrainians haven’t got as strong defences elsewhere in this area, especially not between Ivanivske and Khromove.
Avdiivka…in the Novobakhmutivka, the Russians have been definitely stopped (with significant losses) and exposed to counterattacks by the Presidential Brigade.
Ukrainian fortifications in Avdiivka are meanwhile subjected to regular air strikes by Russian guided bombs — like, reportedly, the latest UPAB-1500. This is a massive weapon, weighting 1,500kg and usually released by Su-34s. It’s got an effective range of about 30km. The screen-grab below is from a video released by the Russians, and shown one such strike.
Further south in this area, and after something like three weeks of relentless assaults, the Russians have secured the dominating feature — a small hill with massive Ukrainian fortifications — north-east of Vodyane. With this, they are now ‘free’ to continue trying to squeeze Avdiivka from the south.
At least as worrisome are videos shown Ukrainians repelling Russian assaults on Pobieda inside that village: so far, these were always repelled while still well outside of it.
Marinka….after 13 months of holding out, lots of success and extremely bitter fighting of the last few days, ZSU’s defences are slowly giving up. The last two days, the Russians have managed to push forward along the Druzhby Avenue, take the area around the Traffic Bureau, in the north, and enter the Ahro Resurs compound in the south.
Vuhledar….while the ZSU seems to have counterattacked and recovered at least a part of Pavlivka, tthe VSRF continued grinding forward in the direction of the Pivdennodonbaska Coal Mine, further east of Vuhledar, the last few days, constantly losing vehicles and troops. That said, both the ZSU positions in the mine, and those inside Vuhledar, are meanwhile exposed to air strikes by the VKS, which is deploying its few modern PGMs for that purpose, too.
