Ukraine War, Interim Report, 1 April 2022
Seems, this ‘April Fools’-day of 2022 is dominated by some sternous propaganda efforts. So much so, one can talk about ‘Putin’s counteroffensive’ in this field — urgently necessary because Russia not only lost the first five weeks of the war it instigated in Ukraine, but also lost the propaganda war in the same period.
I’m usually abstaining from discussing that topic: while a matter very much related to warfare, I find that discussing it is entirely pointless — with few exceptions.
Rule №1
Generally, and once again, there’s lots of hype about the RFA withdrawing its units from the area north of Kyiv and from north-eastern Ukraine, there’s lots of talk about ‘humanitarian corridors’ etc.
As reported the last few days, it’s certainly so that a few of battered units have been withdrawn. Indeed, the BTG holding Chernobyl had to be withdrawn because so many of its troops have exposed themselves to radioactivity while entrenching there (there’s an area where the radioactive earth was covered by ‘good’ earth….and their super-smart CO ordered them to entrench exactly there….). However, as usually, Putin/Shoygu’s TV-announcements are one thing, their actions something entirely different. This is the Rule №1 for Russia of the last decade. Please, kindly always keep this in mind, and go as far as to say: ‘Rule №2: when in doubt, check the Rule №1’.
With other words: there is no general withdrawal. Moreover, most of places lately liberated by the Ukrainians — especially those north-west of Kyiv — are heavily mined and bobby-trapped, and then heavily shelled by the Russian artillery as soon as the Ukrainian forces move in.
For similar reasons, it’s entirely unsurprising that none of ‘humanitarian corridors’ — for example: for evacuation of civilians from Mariupol, announced for today — is ‘working’…
Continued Deportations of Civilians from Ukraine to Russia
That with the Rule №1 is valid for few other affairs of the last few days. For example, last week, the Keystone Cops in Moscow announced an ‘evacuation’ of about 420,000 Ukrainian citizens to Russia — originally launched already back on 24 February. According to Ukrainian government, the number meanwhile rose to more than 500,000. Certainly enough, most of these are civilians from the Russia/Separatists-occupied Donbas. However, the figure is including between 20,000 and 45,000 (sources vary) of citizens of Mariupol and surrounding villages, too. As reported earlier, Rosgvardia is lying to people left behind the frontlines: it’s announcing that an evacuation to Russia is the only way to get out. Now, keep in mind: the people in Mariupol are out of electricity, heating, water and food for 4–5 weeks now, and thus do not know what is going on outside the immediate area where they’re taking shelter. Unsurprisingly, many are taking the offer.
What happens next is little else but a deportation: men are forced to stay, women and children taken to a ‘filtration camp’ (huge military camp) apparently named Bezimenny, in the Novoazovsk area. They are photographed and fingerprinted, their documents and phones are taken away, and then they’re interrogated. From Bezimenny, people are then transferred to another camp in the Taganrog area, in southern Russia, and interrogated by the FSB. Finally, they are forced to sign papers ‘granting’ them a ‘refugee status’.
Get ready for (yet another) Russian Para-State in Ukraine
By now it’s clear that the FSB and Rosgvardia are running efforts to set up a para-state headquartered in Kherson, apparently with intention of running another show-referendum and then declaring its independence, i.e. assimilation by Russia. Details are to follow in reports of the next few days.
Putin’s Oil/Gas Bluff
As assessed about a week ago, Putin’s threat to stop oil/gas deliveries to ‘unfriendly countries’ (foremost members of the EU that imposed sanctions for his aggression on Ukraine), proved little else but a bluff. In a TV-appearance yesterday, 31 March, he ‘officially’ announced a decree along which henceforth all the Russian exports of natural resources would have to be paid by Rubles, and then via the Gazprom Bank, or all the exports would’ve been stopped. This caused a panic in Austria and Germany, perhaps in the Czech and Slovak Republics, and in Hungary, just for the start.
….but, and again: see the Rule №2. Not only that existing contracts (many valid well into 2025!) are crystal clear in regards of how are all the oil/gas exports to be paid (i.e. in € and US$), but — and although the Gazprom Bank was not included in EU (and US-) -imposed sanctions — Kremlin didn’t care to send any kind of written instructions to Western governments and/or involved corporations at all.…What a surprise then: all the gas and oil exports are just going on this morning. Just as usually.
I.e. all that has happened was another of typical TV-appearances of the Fool in Kremlin, always made for public consumption at home (see: Rule №1).
Why? Because stopping oil/gas exports is something Russia couldn’t afford, first and foremost. Not only that Putin would run out of money for his war, but he (i.e. Russia) would also have to pay massive compensations — precisely as stipulated by the same contracts. Of course, that would be a juridical process taking years, etc.: nevertheless, it would be a big issue, de-facto certain to result in another Russian loss.
Foremost: a stop of oil/gas exports in violation of valid contracts would deliver a definite ruin of Putin’s reputation — abroad. Nobody would sign any kind of contracts with him again, because he would provide ultimate evidence that none can trust him.
Air Strike on POL-Facilities outside Belogorod
IMHO, of similar quality are Russian TV-reports along which ‘two Ukrainian Mi-24 attack helicopters’ flew 27km deep into the Russian airspace to attack a POL-facility outside Belogorod.
….’by sheer accident’, of course, this attack was then captured on the video, and is shown the helicopters firing unguided rockets from point blanc range…..
‘Miraculously’, next to nobody was hurt…
If anybody prefers to ‘believe’ Putin, please feel free to do so. Just, kindly, let me know: have got three pyramids (a lil bit old and dusty, thus in ‘used’ condition), an opera house (excellent condition), few beautiful bridges and two Ferraris (all in ‘as new condition’) — to sell.
Price?
A life-time opportunity. Believe me.
Alternatively, it’s simply so that all of this is some sort of PR-counteroffensive by that TV-anchor in Kremlin…. Sorry: an underground bunker in the Ural mountains.
Foreign Troops
In other news… An attempt of the Ukrainian Air Force to evacuate most-urgent casualties from Mariupol has (partially) failed. At least one of four involved Mi-8s was shot down, killing 15 of the crew and badly wounded troops it carried. Two have survived and were taken prisoners by the Russians.
Of course, finding a patch of uniform with flags of multiple African countries inside the wreckage of the downed helicopter was promptly exploited by the Russian propaganda: ‘Ukraine is using foreign mercenaries from different countries’…. Oh, boy: that’s big news!
For general information, Ukrainian Armed Forces are meanwhile including a sizeable ‘Foreign Legion’, comprising following units:
- Omega Battalion: staffed by US citizens (plenty of vets from Afghanistan and Iraq), and even a former South Korean SF-operator.
- Canadian Brigade: three battalions of Canadian and British citizens (again: plenty of vets from Afghanistan and Iraq)
- There’s (at least) one other battalion, including Brazilians, Portuguese, Spaniards, Italians, French…
- Pahonya Regiment: two battalions of Belarusian military personnel (all that defected over the last month ‘or so’),
and then there is the,
- Crimea Battalion: all-Muslim unit, including ‘Abu Tow’ — a Syrian TOW-gunner that scored 140+ confirmed kills against Assadists, Russians, and IRGC-gangs in Syria of 2015–2017.
That said, the patches visible on this photo are evidence of absolutely nothing else, but that one of Ukrainians KIA on board of the downed Mi-8 served with the UN-peacekeepers. After all, Ukraine has provided a number of contingents to the ‘blue helmets’ of the last 20 years (see, for example: Croatia, Congo, Kosovo, Mali, Cyprus, Sudan…).
On the other hand, Putin is already deploying in Ukraine:
- Kadyrov’s Chechens;
- Separatists from the so-called DNR and the LNR (and these are deployed in the Sumy area and in the Mariupol area, i.e. well away from the ‘borders’ of DNR and LNR);
- Wagner PMC (several already confirmed as KIA, by their dog-tags; for another two, see these two photos (both from a smartphone found on one of them after he was KIA)….Now, I’m anti-racist and thus, literally, colour-blind when it comes to such topics like what other people call ‘races’. Still, somehow…. well, no idea…. but can’t help it: that itch in my small toe tells me they do not really look ‘typically Russian’…
- IRGC/Hezbollah (about 500; Assad turned out unable to send more than 200–300; i.e. Shoygu’s announcement about ‘16,000’ was yet another of typical hoaxes),
- 2,100 Armenian troops etc., etc., etc.
- and even the latest set of Russian Army uniforms makes its officers rather resembling those of the Waffen-SS…
(….no, I’m not even going to go into discussing the fact Putin’s media can’t stop crying about ‘Ukro-Nazis’, while the very chief of the Wagner PMC is a Neo-Nazi - as can be seen on the following photo….)
….or that mix of Putlerjugend/Waffen-SS/Gestapo and IRGC/Pasdaran/Basiji named ‘Rosgvardia’….
Thus, no reason to complain, actually…at least not for Russians.
Finally, in (apparently: successful) attempt to dispel rumours about sending its Su-30SMs to Russia, for these to take part in aggression on Ukraine, the Armenian Ministry of Defence invited military attaches of several NATO-members to ‘inspect’ its Sukhois at the Gyumri AB — so to ‘make sure they’re all in Armenia’.
Sorry: not buying it. Not only that the government in Yerevan is renowned for repeatedly falling even to its own propaganda — always dominated by crazed-chauvinism (so much so, it lost the war with Azerbaijan of 2020 because of it), but: nobody can say for sure where were these jets, literally, 30 minutes before, and/or 30 minutes after that ‘inspection’.
