“It Just Means More” — Predicting The 2018 Southeastern Conference (“SEC”) Football Season
With conference media days upon us, we’ve officially begun the countdown period until the start of the 2018 College Football Season. For many, the 2018 Season can’t come fast enough, as fan bases across the nation look forward to the end of the pre-season “talking period,” and wish to evaluate their new coaching hires. The SEC is not alone in that regard, as the conference has five (5) new head coaches — Dan Mullen at Florida, Jeremy Pruitt at Tennessee, Joe Moorhead at Mississippi State, Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M, and Chad Morris at Arkansas. With these hires comes renewed expectations, particularly at Texas A&M where Fisher was given $75 million reasons to leave Florida State. Changes were also made to teams’ rosters, as new recruits were welcomed onto campus and graduate transfers announced their decisions. Finally, entire coaching staffs were overhauled, as coordinators were fired, hired, and promoted. With most of the changes finalized — except for a few key positional battles, here are your 2018 SEC Pre-Season Predictions:
SEC - East:
(1) University of South Carolina:
While most of the focus last season in the SEC East was on the University of Georgia Bulldogs, the Gamecocks quietly managed to win nine (9) games — most of them without the help of star wide receiver Deebo Samuel. With Samuel returning for the 2018 Season, and pairing up with starting quarterback Jake Bentley — who some expect to be in the running for the Heisman Trophy, many are anticipating big things from the Gamecocks. Furthermore, (new) Offensive Coordinator Bryan McClendon has, now, had a full offseason to implement his playbook, after taking over play-calling responsibilities from Kurt Roper. While many are predicting the Bulldogs to repeat as SEC East Champions, I’m favoring the Gamecocks because of their early season meeting in Columbia. Furthermore, while I expect (both) South Carolina and Georgia to have at least one loss on their record, I expect the Gamecocks’ loss to come against — non-conference opponent — Clemson. And, unlike the Gamecocks, the Bulldogs have the additional task of having to defeat Auburn (at home). Between their home-field advantage and (relatively) weak rest of season schedule, the Gamecocks should have the edge(s) they need to win the SEC East for the first time since 2010.
(2) University of Georgia:
The 2017 Season saw the Bulldogs win the SEC for the first time since 2005, and, while they ultimately lost to (SEC West member) Alabama in the National Championship Game, Jake Fromm’s performances in the SEC Championship Game, Rose Bowl, and National Championship Game were stellar. While I expect the Bulldogs to be formidable again in 2018, I don’t think they’ll repeat as SEC East Champions. Largely, this is due to South Carolina’s favorable scheduling — and not because of a “lack of talent” on the Bulldogs’ part, which saw them sign the number-one ranked recruiting class in the offseason. Sure, the Bulldogs must replace running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, but D’Andre Swift is rumored to be a “once in a lifetime” player. The bigger issue is the Bulldogs’ defense, which lost Roquan Smith, Lorenzo Carter, and Davin Bellamy. The combination of defensive issues, Fromm’s having to play an even bigger role in 2018, and schedule, are just enough for me to give South Carolina the edge. However, Georgia could easily finish the season atop the SEC East, again. Other than the Gamecocks, the Bulldogs can expect tough tests on the road at LSU and at home against Auburn. Still, Kirby Smart’s team should not be “slept on.”
(3) University of Florida:
While Dan Mullen’s returning Florida to the top of the SEC will take some time, the Gators have been able to do “magical things” behind the strength of a stellar defense. Furthermore, the Gators will benefit from hosting LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina at home — in “The Swamp.” Thus, it’s conceivable that the Gators play “party crasher” in the SEC East. However, an upset victory at home may be all that Gators’ faithful are able to hope for in Mullen’s first season back in Gainesville. As great as Mullen is at developing quarterbacks, I’m not sure how much he’ll be able to accomplish with Feleipe Franks. Behind Franks, true freshman Emory Jones could see major playing time, following a mid-season quarterback change. But, it would be naïve to expect anything more than above-average play from the true freshman. Still, after a rollercoaster 2017 Season that saw the dismissal of Head Coach Jim McElwain, and a pre-season scandal that led to the suspension of seven players, a major upset win over Georgia or South Carolina should provide the jolt of life that Gators’ fans crave, and the major victory that every new head coach looks to build upon in Year 2.
(4) University of Tennessee:
Following a drawn out coaching search, the Volunteers, ultimately, found their man in Alabama Defensive Coordinator Jeremy Pruitt. Already, Pruitt has impressed new Athletic Director Phillip Fulmer, and received an important “vote of confidence” from (former) Volunteer Albert Haynesworth. To his credit, Pruitt has done a solid job at adding graduate transfers to the Volunteers’ program — adding former Stanford quarterback Keller Chryst, former Michigan State running back Madre London, and former Alabama offensive lineman Brandon Kennedy. However, the Volunteers’ turnaround will take time. Unlike when (fellow) former Alabama Defensive Coordinator Kirby Smart replaced Mark Richt at Georgia, the Volunteers went wineless in SEC play in 2017, and have possibly the toughest stretch in SEC play this season — facing Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, and South Carolina (all) in successive weeks. Fortunately, the Volunteers’ home schedule provides them with enough winnable games to finish fourth in the East. And, similar to the Gators, they may be able to score a major upset over Alabama at home, which they could look to build upon in Year 2.
(5) University of Missouri:
While it will be interesting to see how the pairing of Tigers’ quarterback Drew Lock and new Offensive Coordinator (and former University of Tennessee Head Coach) Derek Dooley pans out, the Tigers showed a noticeable struggle in 2017, whenever they played a team in the upper echelon of the SEC. With a home game against Georgia, and road games against South Carolina, Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee, the Tigers managing to repeat their four (4) SEC victories of 2017 should be considered a “success.” While another 7–6 Season wouldn’t doom Tigers’ Head Coach Barry Odom, it may be enough to “warm” his seat.
(6) University of Kentucky:
While under Head Coach Mark Stoops the Wildcats have been able to show improvement each year, Benny Snell, Jr. might be the only reliable offensive weapon on Kentucky’s roster. And, while the Wildcats were able to win four (4) games in SEC play in 2017, I don’t expect them to defeat South Carolina or Tennessee (again) this year. Furthermore, the Wildcats play a tough mid-season crossover game against Texas A&M — in College Station. Together, these factors make it hard to see the Wildcats winning more than three (3) games in SEC play — at most!
(7) Vanderbilt University:
The 2018 Season could very well be Derek Mason’s last leading the Commodores, and, even with the return of three-year starting quarterback Kyle Shurmur, the loss of star running back Ralph Webb and three of the team’s top pass-catchers likely signal another difficult year. If they’re going to repeat their one (1) SEC victory of 2017, I expect it to come during their stretch of road games against Kentucky, Arkansas, and Missouri. However, I doubt another one win season would mean Mason’s return in 2019.
SEC - West:
(1) University of Alabama:
The Crimson Tide’s biggest challenge in 2018 — other than deciding whether to start Jalen Hurts or Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback — might be on the sidelines, where Nick Saban has had to replace (both) his Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, promoting Mike Locksely and Tosh Lupoi, respectively. While the Tide suffered a number of key losses from their 2018 National Championship team — including Calvin Ridley, Da’Ron Payne, and Minkah Fitzpatrick, I don’t expect replacing them to be too much of a problem for Saban and Co. Furthermore, the Tide’s 2018 Schedule sees them play home games against Mississippi State and Auburn. In fact, their toughest road game of the season might be against LSU, who they’ll face after their bye week. All told, the 2018 Season likely sees the Crimson Tide return to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.
(2) Mississippi State University:
The Bulldogs have been picked by many to be the “sleeper team” in the SEC this season — and for good reason. In 2018, the Bulldogs return starting quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, thousand-yard rusher Aeris Williams, and should have one of the better defensive lines in the SEC. While the Bulldogs will have to adjust to new Head Coach Joe Moorhead, Moorhead proved what he could do with a talented offense during his stint at Penn State, where he helped turn quarterback Trace McSorely into a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate. Even with a ton of returning talent, the SEC West will be a “load,” and the Bulldogs’ hopes of winning the division may rest on their November trip to Tuscaloosa. If Dan Mullen were still coaching the Bulldogs, I might be tempted to pick them as the favorite to win the SEC West. However, without Mullen, and with their away game against Alabama, I expect the Bulldogs to finish second in the SEC West — which means there’s still a chance that they make the College Football Playoff.
(3) Auburn University:
Jarrett Stidham may very well be one of the SEC’s better quarterbacks this season. However, it may be hard to tell, with the departures of running backs Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway and losses of starting wide receivers Eli Stove and Will Hastings to injury. Fortunately, 2018 will see Head Coach Gus Malzahn return to The Plains after signing a seven-year, $49 million extension, following reports that Arkansas made an attempt to lure him away. However, the Tigers still have one of the hardest schedules in college football this season — opening the season in Atlanta against Washington (a possible College Football Playoff team) and playing road games against Mississippi State, Georgia, and Alabama. Thus, even with potent returning combination of Stidham and Malzahn, it’s going to be a tough year for the Tigers.
(4) Louisiana State University (“LSU”):
The 2018 Season will likely be crucial to Tigers’ Head Coach Ed Orgeron’s tenure. Orgeron capped off the offseason by replacing Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada with Tight Ends Coach Steve Ensminger. Likewise, LSU shelled out big bucks to keep Defensive Coordinator Dave Aranda. Fortunately, Orgeron has, again, proven himself to be a capable recruiter, adding Ohio State graduate transfer quarterback Joe Burrow. However, the Tigers will still have to deal with the loss of six underclassmen — including running back Derrius Guice and wide receiver D.J. Chark. And, even with hosting Georgia, Mississippi State, and Alabama at home, the Tigers will have their hands full. With the Tigers’ fan base growing increasingly restless, the 2018 Season will likely have important meaning for Orgeron’s future. I don’t think the Tigers need to win the SEC West, but it would be very helpful if they could — finally — defeat Alabama. Orgeron’s doing so would go a long way towards ingratiating himself with the Tigers’ fan base, and give highly-ranked recruits the vote of confidence they need to stay in Louisiana, which has been a problem for the Tigers recently.
(5) Texas A&M University:
Jimbo Fisher was hired away from Florida State with his “marching orders” clear — win a national championship. Already, Fisher has been busy, as he’s managed to put together one of the top recruiting classes of 2019. However, before those players make their way onto campus, Fisher will have to navigate his way through a tough 2018 Season, and it will be a difficult one for the Aggies. While the Aggies are fortunate enough to play (likely) ACC Champion Clemson in College Station, the Aggies face Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Auburn — all — on the road. While Kevin Sumlin was fired for his inability to win nine (9) games, an “8–5 record” should be considered a success in Fisher’s debut season in College Station. While (another) 8–5 season may not placate “A&M faithful,” it would require the Aggies to defeat (either) Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi State, or Auburn — which would provide Fisher the victory he needs to build upon in Year 2.
(6) University of Mississippi:
The Rebels’ 2018 Season is already off to an inauspicious start, after the NCAA announced that Ole Miss would be subject to a (additional) one-year bowl ban. Following the announcement of the ban, a number of players decided to transfer — including starting quarterback Shea Patterson. Fortunately, (new) starting quarterback Jordan Ta’amu impressed many with his performance in the Rebels’ spring game. And, some have even suggested that Ta’amu might be better than Patterson, who should be assisted in his transition by the Rebels having one of the better receiving corps in the nation — with A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and DaMarkus Lodge. Unfortunately, the Rebels’ 2018 schedule is filled with tough matchups — with road games against LSU and Texas A&M and home matchups against Alabama, Auburn, and South Carolina. However, I don’t expect Matt Luke’s team to “fold” under pressure, after having had to endure two years with the NCAA’s investigation weighing over them. Thus, I wouldn’t be surprised if Luke’s team provides at least one “upset” this season — whether it be against South Carolina or in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. No matter how the season plays out though, I expect Luke to return in 2018.
(7) University of Arkansas:
2017 saw the end of the Bret Bielema-era at Arkansas. Unfortunately, Bielema was never able to replicate the success he had at Wisconsin. In replacing Bielema, the Razorbacks chose Southern Methodist University (“SMU”) Head Coach Chad Morris, who in three seasons coaching SMU put together one of the more potent offenses in college football and developed star wide receiver Courtland Sutton into an NFL Draft pick. However, even with the change in head coaches, it will take time for the Razorbacks to return to contending in the SEC West, as Morris will need time to implement his up-tempo offense. The Razorbacks best chance(s) of winning a game in SEC play this season will likely be at home against Vanderbilt or on the road at Missouri to finish their season.
2018 SEC Conference Champion: The University of Alabama
The 2018 Season will likely bring with it a change in the SEC, as I expect it to be the last season that Alabama has a stronghold over the conference. Nick Saban has done a tremendous job resurrecting Alabama’s program. However, all dynasties must come to an end. The hires of new head coaches Dan Mullen, Jeremy Pruitt, and Jimbo Fisher have already had an impact on Alabama’s recruiting efforts. Imagine what these coaches will be able to do with a full offseason to recruit? Furthermore, 2018 will mark another season, where Saban has had to replace at least one (1) coordinator. With Saban being sixty-six years old, and every team in the SEC seeking to “beat Bama,” it’s only a matter of time before the other programs are able to “close the gap.” I expect that time to be the 2019 Season.
For all things sports, follow me on Twitter.
