“#MWFB” — Predicting The 2018 Mountain West Conference Football Season
With the University of Central Florida being the Group of Five’s darling in 2017, the Mountain West Conference’s tremendous success went (largely) unnoticed. San Diego State kicked things off by upsetting Stanford (at home) and Arizona State (on the road). And, Boise State continued to “upset” the Pac-12, with its victory over Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. Furthermore, San Diego State running back Rashaad Penny finished fifth in Heisman voting, and, following the season, three Mountain West players were taken in the first round of the NFL Draft — Wyoming’s Josh Allen, Boise State’s Leighton Vander Esch, and San Diego State’s Penny. And, the conference’s talent doesn’t just end on the field. Boise State Head Coach Bryan Harsin and Colorado State Head Coach Mike Bobo will likely (both) be in the running for big promotions, following the 2018 Season. Most importantly, though, 2018 marks the beginning of a new season. And, unlike Central Florida, Boise State plays a marquee matchup against Big 12 member Oklahoma State, meaning that a win would likely give the Broncos the edge for a New Year’s Six Bowl berth. So, there’s a lot riding on 2018. Thus, here are your 2018 Mountain West predictions:
Mountain:
(1) Boise State University:
The Broncos are in control of their own destiny in 2018 because, even with having to replace 2017 Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Leighton Vander Esch, the Broncos return every single one of their remaining starters on defense. Offensively, senior quarterback Brett Rypien returns, as well as thousand-yard rusher Alexander Mattison. Furthermore, Rypien enters 2018 as the Broncos unquestioned starter, so he won’t spend the first part of the season in a quarterback competition with Montell Cozart like he did in 2017. And, with Josh Allen having departed from the NFL, Rypien will, now, be the biggest quarterback in the Mountain West. Already, he’s managed to throw sixty (60) touchdown passes (compared to 22 interceptions). So, even with the loss of star wide receiver Cedrick Wilson, Rypien should be in for a big senior year. On the sidelines, much has been said about Head Coach Bryan Harsin, who could be on the verge of a big promotion. But, Defensive Coordinator Andy Avalos is (also) likely due for a promotion soon. In 2018, though, Harsin and Avalos will both be on the Bronco’s sidelines, which means that the rest of the Mountain West should be on notice.
(2) Colorado State University:
Rams’ fans got a scare this week, when it was announced that Head Coach Mike Bobo was hospitalized to undergo medical testing. Fortunately, it appears that Bobo will be able to return to the sidelines — at some point — after it was announced that he is being treated for “peripheral neuropathy.” Hopefully, Bobo’s health scare won’t keep him off the field too long, as prior to this unexpected announcement he was consider one of the top candidates for a promotion in the Mountain West. While Bobo has assured Rams’ fans that he has full confidence in his staff, it’s uncertain what the Rams will look like when they open their season August 25th against Hawaii. With Bobo on the sidelines though, the Rams have a (small) chance to challenge Boise State in the Mountain Division, especially with the addition of Washington graduate transfer K.J. Carta-Samuels — who picked the Rams after initially announcing his intention to transfer to UCLA and has already seen action in twenty-five college games. Defensively, the Rams will look to new Defensive Coordinator John Jancek to turn around a (historically) bad defense, but, even with a new defensive coordinator, it’s hard to imagine too much improvement, given how hard the defense was hit by graduation. While the Rams will likely not be able to surpass Boise State this season, they have a good chance of finishing just behind them in the Mountain — and an even better chance of defeating two Power Five programs this season (Colorado and Arkansas).
(3) Wyoming:
While this may be hard to believe, Wyoming Head Coach Craig Bohl may not actually miss Josh Allen too much this season, given how putrid the Cowboys’ offense was in 2017. In seeking to replace Allen, Bohl announced that redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal had “won” the starting job coming out of spring practice, but he, also, stated that it didn’t guarantee he’d start the Cowboy’s opener. Defensively, an underrated defense should be even better in 2018, with the return of medical redshirt Antonio Hull. Hull’s return provides the Cowboys with flexibility on defense, which should keep them competitive in many games. No matter how this season turns out though, Bohl knows how to build a program, having made a name for himself at North Dakota State (“NDSU”). When Bohl took over NDSU, the Bison were coming off a 2–8 season, but, Bohl eventually turned them into a three-time FCS national champion, highlighted by a redhead named “Carson Wentz.” Bohl appears to be applying the same meticulous formula to the Cowboys, which has resulted in them winning eight games in back-to-back seasons. While the Cowboys will likely lack the offensive output to compete with the Mountain West’s best this season, they’re going to give a lot of teams trouble — possibly, even, Boise State, who they play in late-September coming off their “bye week.”
(4) Utah State:
Aggies Head Coach Matt Wells enters 2018 in a precarious situation. While another year of underachieving could put Wells out of a job, the Aggies don’t have the talent to challenge Boise State. So, even if the Aggies get outclassed by Michigan State to open the season, Wells needs to make sure his team is bowl eligible, again, in 2018. Fortunately, after their season opener against the Spartans, the Aggies’ schedule is manageable. And, Wells and new Defensive Coordinator Keith Patterson (previously at Arizona State) should be able to rely on a stalwart defense and its nine returning starters. Offensively, redshirt sophomore Jordan Love enters 2018 as the unquestioned starter, and he should benefit from the return of Ron’quavion Tarver (a 2017 third-team all-Mountain West selection). But, even with the return of most of their defense, and a quarterback that saw major playing time in 2017, the Aggies are still probably one year — at least — from competing against the Mountain West’s better teams. Still, though, that doesn’t mean they can’ be bowl eligible in 2018.
(5) Air Force:
If Well is almost on the hot seat, Air Force Head Coach Troy Calhoun certainly is. Already, Calhoun appears intent on entering the 2018 Season without a defensive coordinator, after Steve Russ left in the offseason to coach linebackers for the Carolina Panthers. Regardless of who is the Falcons’ new defensive coordinator though, it’s tough for any of the service academies to compete without a decent defense. And, when you run the triple option, you can’t afford to play too many high-scoring games. Offensively, quarterback Arion Worthman returns, although it’s unlikely he’ll be able to survive another season of being sacked sixteen (16) times. Assuming Worthman is able to stay healthy though, the Falcons will be tough to beat. As we saw in San Diego State’s bowl game against Army, the option has a way of “equalizing” football games, and, in this regard, the Falcons’ early season game against Lane Kiffin’s Florida Atlantic team should be very interesting to watch. And, depending on the game’s outcome, Calhoun’s team has a shot of finishing bowl eligible in 2018.
(6) New Mexico:
Usually, a losing season and off-field scandal means that a team’s head coach does not return. But, somehow, Lobos Head Coach Bob Davie has found a way to return in 2018. However, another losing season would almost certainly mean Davie’s exit. In seeking to amplify the Lobos’ defense, Davie leaned heavily on JUCO signees, choosing experience over upside. And, if Davie is coaching for his job like many believe, this could lead to the Lobos taking more chances in 2018, which should be fun to watch. Furthermore, the pairing of starting quarterback Tevaka Tuioti and new Offensive Coordinator Calvin Magee (previously the offensive coordinator at Arizona) should be entertaining, as we’ve already seen a glimpse of what Magee can do with a mobile quarterback in Arizona’s Khalil Tate. While the addition of experienced players, and a new offensive coordinator would normally be a good sign, it fails to overcome the shadow cast over the program by Davie’s scandal. So, even with hosting Fresno State, San Diego State, and Boise State in 2018, don’t expect much from the Lobos.
West:
(1) San Diego State:
Usually, you wouldn’t expect a team losing the 2017 Mountain West Conference Offensive player of the year (Rashaad Penny) to be predicted to finish so high. But, in case you haven’t been watching, Penny is just the latest in a long succession of stellar running backs the Aztecs have produced recently. In 2018, Juwan Washington will step into the role of the Aztecs’ “feature back,” behind pieces of an offensive line that has already churned out a pair of two-thousand-yard rushers (Penny and Donnel Pumphrey). And, the Aztecs’ offensive line should be their biggest strength in 2017, as it returns all five starters. Likewise, unlike previous Aztec offensive lines, this one has the size necessary to compete against group of five and power five defensive linemen. And, under center, Christian Chapman — who already has twenty-nine starts — returns. Thus, offensively, the Aztecs should be one of the most potent offenses in the Mountain West. Defensively, the Aztecs lost Coordinator Danny Gonzales to Arizona State, but Head Coach Rocky Long has made it clear that he’s the one calling the signals. So, don’t expect any attrition from the Aztecs’ defense. The Aztecs biggest issue preventing them from winning the West might be their schedule, though. While the Aztecs start their season with a good chance of being” 4–0,” they face Boise and Fresno State on the road. Fortunately, the timing of these games gives them a great shot of winning. The Aztecs travel to Idaho coming off their “bye week”, and face Fresno State between UNLV and Hawaii, which will likely be for the West Division Title. So, while their season will be a grind, the Aztecs should have the combination of offensive firepower and preventive defense necessary to beat a lot of teams — assuming they can control the football.
(2) Fresno State:
Rarely does a head coach take over a team and manage to have a better first season than Jeff Tedford. In his first season coaching the Bulldogs, Tedford took a team that went “1–11” in 2016 to the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. So, unlike most head coaches, Tedford doesn’t have to “show improvement” in 2018. Rather, he needs to make sure that the Bulldogs don’t regress (too far). In this regard, the return of starting quarterback Marcus McMaryion, along with wide receiver KeeSean Johnson, will help. However, the defense is a concern, with the loss of Defensive Coordinator Orlondo Steinauer and most of the line. While I still expect the Bulldogs to be in the running for the West Division Title, it’s hard for any team to win without “controlling the trenches.”
(3) UNLV:
Generally speaking, head coaches love to claim that they need to upgrade their facilities before they can compete with the other teams in their conference (see new Texas A&M Head Coach Jimbo Fisher). But, Rebels Head Coach Tony Sanchez has managed to show improvement in each of his first three seasons before the opening of the new Las Vegas Stadium. Furthermore, Sanchez has shown significant improvement in the recruiting department, which is a testament to his previous experience leading one of the nation’s top high school teams. Offensively, the Rebels have a nice core of starting quarterback Armani Rogers and running backs Lexington Thomas and Charles Williams. But, similar to most of the Mountain West’s bottom tier teams, the Rebels must show improvement on defense. To this end, Sanchez brought in new defensive coordinator Tim Skipper, who has experience coaching in the Mountain West having previously coached at Fresno and Colorado State. If Skipper manages a significant turnaround in his first season, the Rebels may, even, be able to compete for the West Division Title, and, in this regard, not having to play Boise State this year should help. But, while they have a decent shot of finishing bowl eligible, they’re still probably one year away from competing against the West’s top teams. Still, though, Nevada is one of the more surprisingly talent-rich states for football. And, the Rebels will be playing in an NFL stadium in two years. Already, Sanchez has been able to make improvements on the recruiting trail, but, with him being able to boast to recruits about having the ability to play in an NFL stadium, UNLV may be on the verge of becoming a Group of Five powerhouse.
(4) Nevada:
In 2017, Head Coach Jay Norvell’s defense gave up almost 34 points per game. This stat alone defines the Wolf Pack’s 2017 Season. So, Defensive Coordinator Jeff Casteel has his work cut out for him heading into “Year 2.” Fortunately, offensively, Norvell’s team should be one of the more fun teams to watch in college football, and the foursome of quarterback Ty Gangi, running back Kelton Moore, and wide receivers McLane Mannix and Brendan O’Leary-Orange should produce a lot of points this season. But, “a lot of points” may not be enough to overcome a thirty-four-point deficit each game. And, with the Wolf Pack facing the Mountain West’s four best offenses this season — Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, and Fresno State — the Wolf Pack won’t be able to show much improvement unless they manage to significantly improve their defense.
(5) San Jose State University:
Spartans Head Coach Brent Brennan’s first season finished exactly how you would expect a new head coach at a Group of Five schools first season could (with a record of “2–11”). And, while the record may not look impressive, Brennan’s team did manage to defeat Wyoming — albeit without Josh Allen. So, things could be trending upwards. However, the Spartans’ 2018 Season starts out rough — with road games against Washington State, Oregon, San Diego State, and Fresno State. And, while the nucleus of quarterback Montel Aaron, running back Tyler Nevens, and wide receivers JaQuan Blackwell and Tre Walker looks promising, they’re a year away from challenging the Mountain West’s better teams. So, the Spartans winning four (4) games this year should be considered a “success.” While the Spartans should win their opener against UC Davis, and they should beat Hawaii, winning an additional two (2) games would require that they defeat a couple of “good” (and, maybe, even one “great”) team. And, while this will still mean a “losing season,” it would show the desired improvement that athletic directors are looking for in “Year 2.”
(6) Hawaii:
Rainbow Warriors Head Coach Nick Rolovich will likely be saying, “oops, I did it, again” — after the 2018 Season. While every team in the Mountain West lost members of their 2017 teams, the Rainbow Warriors lost a lot: starting quarterback Dru Mason transferred to Oklahoma State. Leading receiver Dylan Collie left for BYU, and Defensive Coordinator Legi Suiaunoa left for Oregon State. Furthermore, the Rainbow Warriors’ defense was absolutely decimated by departures. Thus, with so much turnover, it’s tough to expect any improvement from Rolovich’s team. While the Rainbow Warriors have a real shot of repeating their three wins of 2017 (Rice, Duquesne, and San Jose State), and have a shot at four (Wyoming or Colorado State), they’re back to “rebuilding” on the Big Island. Fortunately, Rolovich appears to be committed to fixing the mistakes of predecessor Norm Chow, and, given his pedigree as having previously served as the Rainbow Warriors starting quarterback, he should be given the time needed to make a full turnaround.
2018 Mountain West Conference Champion: Boise State.
Heading into 2018, the Broncos have the clear edge to represent the Group of Five in a New Year’s Six Bowl. And, between scheduling, returning talent, and an intact coaching staff, the Broncos should be able to repeat as Mountain Division Champions. In the Mountain West Championship Game, they’ll likely face San Diego State. While I expect it to be a close game, the Broncos’ ability to throw the ball should give them the edge, resulting in them repeating as Mountain West Conference Champions. The real question is, though, what else might they be able to accomplish?
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