“#Pac12FB” — Predicting The 2018 Pacific-12 (“Pac-12”) Conference Football Schedule
As much as the Pac-12 likes to tout itself as the “Conference of Champions,” the 2017 college football bowl season failed to live up to the conference’s slogan. After posting an unimpressive 1–8 bowl record (with Utah being the only Pac-12 team to win its bowl game), Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott tried to downplay the conference’s “bad year” at Pac-12 Media Days. But, make no mistake, 2018 will be an important season for the conference. Already, the conference lags behind the SEC, and it would be easy to make a case that they also lagged behind the Big 10. With the emergence of Clemson as a major player in college football, and the resurgence of Miami (and also, possibly, Florida State), the ACC is making a serious claim for being the third toughest conference in college football. Furthermore, the Big 12 had a fantastic 2017, and could be poised for another big year in 2018 — depending on how Texas’ season plays out. Thus, unless the Pac-12 wishes to be known as the “fifth-best conference in the Power 5,” they need to show major improvement this season.
Fortunately, there have been a number of changes made this offseason. Most notably, the conference boasts five (5) new head coaches — Mario Cristobal at Oregon, Jonathan Smith at Oregon State, Kevin Sumlin at Arizona, Chip Kelly at UCLA, and Herm Edwards at Arizona State. Furthermore, the Pac-12’s teams play a number of interesting non-conference games: with Washington opening its season against Auburn, Colorado renewing its rivalry with Nebraska, UCLA playing at Oklahoma, and Arizona State hosting Michigan State. Depending on how these games play out, they could go a long way towards improving the conference’s reputation among College Football Playoff voters. Thus, here are your 2018 Pac-12 Conference predictions:
North:
(1) University of Washington:
The Huskies have been one of the most talked about teams this offseason, and for good reason. Chris Petersen’s team enters 2018 with eight returning starters on offense and nine returning starters on defense. Under center, the Huskies will, again, have Jake Browning, who will benefit from the return of star running back Myles Gaskin. While the Huskies will have to replace 2017 Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Vita Vea, I expect Petersen’s staff to be up to the challenge, even with Offensive Coordinator Jonathan Smith having departed to take the head coaching job at Oregon State. Scheduling wise, the Huskies have one of the more interesting schedules in the Pac-12. The Huskies open their season against Auburn (in Atlanta). Depending on how both teams’ seasons play out, this game could have major implications for the College Football Playoff. In conference play, the Huskies have tough road games scheduled against Utah and Oregon. But, barring an unforeseen injury, it’s hard to imagine the Huskies not winning the North this season, since they play their biggest threat — Stanford — at home.
(2) Stanford University:
Bryce Love was “the love” of college football in 2017. With Love announcing his decision to return for his senior season, many have predicted him to be the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Under center, K.J. Costello enters the season as the Cardinals’ full-time starter, and, even with having sat out spring practice due to a hip injury, he should benefit from having had an entire offseason as the team’s “starter.” The combination of Love and Costello — behind Stanford’s usually superb offensive line — should make the Cardinals’ offense one of the most entertaining in college football. Regardless of how potent the Cardinals’ offense is though, their defense will likely prevent them from (truly) competing for a spot in the College Football Playoff. In 2017, the Cardinals’ defense allowed almost six (6) yards per play, and, in 2018, they’ll no longer be able to rely on Safety Justin Reid (their defensive leader), who departed for the NFL. While David Shaw is one of my favorite coaches in college football, I’m not sure he’ll be able to overcome the deficit of the Cardinals’ defense. The Cardinals open their season against San Diego State, which should be a tougher game than most expect. Furthermore, the Cardinals play tough road games against Oregon, Notre Dame, and Washington. While the Cardinals’ offense should keep them competitive, their defense should cost them the game (or two) that keeps them from winning the North. Frankly, you can’t win a Pac-12 Championship winning every game “45–40.”
(3) Oregon University:
The Ducks’ biggest loss this offseason was (former) Head Coach Willie Taggart to Florida State. In his lone season in Eugene, Taggart managed to win seven (7) games — and without starting quarterback Justin Herbert for a crucial five (5) game stretch. In replacing Taggart, Oregon Athletic Director Rob Mullens chose to listen to the Ducks’ players, and promote Ducks’ Offensive Coordinator Mario Cristobal to head coach. Cristobal has an impressive list of schools on his coaching resume, having coached at Miami and Alabama. But, I’m not sure he’s the Ducks’ “guy” long term. Fortunately, the Ducks benefit from hosting their biggest threats in the North — Stanford and Washington, and, assuming he’s able to stay healthy, starting quarterback Justin Herbert should be fun to watch this season, as many are predicting him to be a likely future first-round pick. The combination of a difficult schedule, new head coach, and durability concerns regarding Herbert are enough for me to favor Washington (and Stanford) over Oregon. But, make no mistake, the Ducks should have one of the most potent offenses in the Pac-12 this season.
(4) Washington State University:
2017 was a breakout year for Mike Leach’s team, which saw the Cougars ranked as high as eighth nationally. Heading into 2018, Leach’s team lost a number of key contributors — including starting quarterback Luke Falk, offensive lineman Cody O’Connell, and defensive leader Hercules Mata’afa. Off the field, the Cougars had one of the most difficult offseasons, following the tragic suicide of quarterback Tyler Hilinski. The news of Hilinski’s death has left the Cougars with a big, big void, which would be hard for any head coach to fill — even the “colorful” Mike Leach. One of the few positive notes of the offseason for the Cougars was the announcement that East Carolina quarterback Gardner Minshew had decided to transfer to Washington State as a graduate transfer — picking the Cougars over Alabama. Minshew’s transfer gives the Cougars an experienced quarterback, who should benefit from playing in Leach’s Air Raid Offense. The Cougars’ 2018 schedule starts out slow, with them playing early games against Wyoming, San Jose State, and Eastern Washington. The Cougars’ first true test of 2018 will come when they play at USC — on Friday night — to open Pac-12 play. Luckily, other than a tough road game against Stanford, the Cougars host (both) Oregon and Washington in Pullman. While it’s hard to imagine the Cougars (again) competing for the Pac-12 North, their schedule is filled with enough winnable games from them to finish fourth.
(5) University of California, Berkeley (“Cal”):
Justin Wilcox’s first season coaching the Bears saw them match their 2016 record, and, heading into Wilcox’s second season, it’s very possible that the Bears match their 2017 Pac-12 Conference record of “2–7.” Even with the Bears playing their usual slate of Pac-12 North opponents, they don’t benefit from playing crossover games against Arizona, UCLA, and USC, even with them playing a favorable crossover game against Colorado. Furthermore, the Bears will miss star wide receiver Demetris Robertson, who transferred to Georgia. Fortunately, Wilcox appears to have found his answer at quarterback in Ross Bowers, assuming he’s able to fend off challenges from Chase Forrest, South Carolina transfer Brandon McIlwain, and Chase Garbers. Regardless of who wins the starting job though, they’ll benefit from the return of thousand-yard rusher Patrick Laird. No matter how 2018 plays out though, I do believe in Wilcox, and I think he’s the right fit for the Bears. If the Bears can manage an upset this season, they’ll be setup well for what should be a breakout 2019.
(6) Oregon State University:
2017 was not kind to the Beavers, which saw them win only one (1) game. Heading into 2018, Oregon State Athletic Director Scott Barnes decided to make a change, and hired (former) Beavers’ starting quarterback and University of Washington Offensive Coordinator Jonathan Smith to be the Beavers’ new head coach. In filling out his staff, Smith choose to hire “in conference,” hiring Colorado Offensive Coordinator Brian Lindgren to be the Beavers’ new offensive coordinator. Lindgren’s hiring should provide an interesting subplot, when the Beavers travel to face the Buffaloes this season. Scheduling wise, the Beavers open their season on the road — against Ohio State — and end their season with games against USC, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon. Given how much of a rebuild the Beavers’ require, their winning three (3) games this season should be considered an accomplishment. Fortunately, with the Beavers facing so many high-profile teams, they’ll have many opportunities to pull off a signature win, which would go a long way towards setting the Beavers up for success in Year 2.
South:
(1) University of Southern California (“USC”):
2017 ended in disappointment for the Trojans, after they failed to reach the College Football Playoff and were outclassed by Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. Heading into 2018, the Trojans will miss starting quarterback Sam Darnold and (dependable) wide receiver Deontay Burnett. In seeking to replace Darnold, neither Jack Sears nor Matt Fink has done enough (so far) to win the starting job. Fortunately, as the Trojans enter Fall Camp, incoming “freshman” J.T. Daniels joins the competition. Daniels has already been touted by many for his impressive skill set, and seems to have already made an impression on Trojans’ Head Coach Clay Helton. In this regard, I think Darnold’s path to becoming the starting quarterback will assist Daniels.
In 2016, Darnold started the season as Max Browne’s backup. However, Darnold (eventually) replaced Browne, and led the Trojans to a Rose Bowl victory over Penn State. Given Darnold’s success, Helton might be more willing to name a freshman as the starting quarterback. Scheduling wise, it’s very possible that the Trojans open the season 1–2, as they play tough road games early in the season against Stanford and Texas. Thus, it’s very likely that the trajectory of the Trojans’ season depends upon their Friday night home, Pac-12 opener against Washington State. Given that the Trojans have never played well in Friday night games, this game is far from a “lock.” The Trojans also have a tough road game scheduled against Utah, and finish their season against Notre Dame, who embarrassed the Trojans in South Bend last season. Even with all these challenges though, the Trojans should have enough talent to win the South. Again, here is where I expect the Trojans’ season to mirror 2016. Assuming that the Trojans are able to comeback from a couple of early season defeats, they should be able to win the South, and return to the Pac-12 Championship Game. If they are, they’ll be a handful for whatever team ends up winning the North.
(2) Arizona:
While much of the offseason has focused on Chip Kelly’s return to the Pac-12, I’m more excited about the Wildcats’ decision to hire Kevin Sumlin. Sumlin has shown what he can do offensively in his previous stints at Houston and Texas A&M, especially when he has a mobile quarterback like Wildcats’ Junior Khalil Tate. Furthermore, in hiring Sumlin, the Wildcats may have opened a pipeline to talent in the state of Texas, which should improve their chances of competing in the Pac-12. Already, the Wildcats benefit from the consistency of Sumlin retaining Defensive Coordinator Marcel Yates, who is a favorite among the players. Offensively, the combination of Sumlin and Tate should be fun to watch. While Tate struggled with consistency in 2017, I think Sumlin’s schemes will favor his talents. The Wildcats’ schedule should also help Sumlin’s transition, as they have a very good chance of starting the season “4–0,” before they host USC in late September. The Wildcats’ slate of conference road games — Oregon State, Utah, UCLA, and Washington State — should make them competitive all season, and they benefit from playing a tough crossover game against Oregon at home. With Tate being just a junior, and the Wildcats having had one of the youngest defenses in the Pac-12 last season, it should be interesting to see what this team can do this season (and going forward).
(3) Utah:
Unlike most of the teams in the Pac-12, the Utes are a model of consistency heading into 2018, as they’re the only team in the Pac-12 to return their Head Coach — Kyle Whittingham, Offensive Coordinator — Troy Taylor, Defensive Coordinator — Morgan Scalley, and starting quarterback — Tyler Huntley. This consistency should prove helpful for the Utes, as they have one of the more difficult schedules in the Pac-12 this season. The Utes have crossover games scheduled against Washington, Stanford, and Oregon, meaning that they’ll face the North’s top three teams. Even outside of the Pac-12, the Utes have a tough road game scheduled against (Group of Five member) Northern Illinois, who boast 2017 MAC Defensive Player of the Year Sutton Smith. Thus, while the Utes should be one of the Pac-12’s better teams, I don’t think it’ll show in their record. But, if the Utes do manage to win the South this season, they should be in discussion for the College Football Playoff.
(4) University of California, Los Angeles (“UCLA”):
UCLA Athletic Director Dan Guerrero’s decision to hire Chip Kelly, as the Bruins new head coach, was one of the most talked about stories of the offseason. In hiring Kelly, the Bruins add (another) head coach with NFL experience. Whether Kelly will be able to replicate the success he had at Oregon remains to be seen, though. So far, Kelly is off to an impressive start, after having landed (former) Michigan starting quarterback Wilton Speight as a graduate transfer. Speight gives the Bruins an experienced quarterback, who’s played significant minutes. However, it’s not guaranteed that Speight manages to win the starting job, as he’ll face stiff challenges from incoming freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Devon Modster (last season’s backup). No matter who wins though, do not expect much from Kelly’s team in his first year in Westwood. Josh Rosen did a lot for the Bruins’ offense, and he only managed to win four (4) Pac-12 games in 2017. Furthermore, the Bruins’ schedule leaves little room for missteps. The Bruins play a tough non-conference game on the road against Oklahoma, and have an early season game scheduled against Fresno State, who won ten (10) games in 2016. This season will be about Kelly implementing his offense, and setting the Bruins up for the future, which means you should expect plenty of missteps along the way.
(5) Colorado:
2017 was (quite) a regression for the Buffaloes, after they managed to win the Pac-12 South in 2016. Hopefully, 2018 will mean more of the latter — and less of the former. While the Buffaloes benefit from the return of starting quarterback Steven Montez, Head Coach Mike MacIntyre has to adjust to the losses of Offensive Coordinator Brian Lindgren (Oregon State) and Defensive Coordinator Jim Leavitt (Oregon). The fact that both coordinators left for programs in conference does not bode well for the Buffaloes. Fortunately, the Buffaloes’ schedule is filled with winnable games. Other than a road trip to Seattle (Washington), the Buffaloes should be competitive in most of their games this season, even their non-conference matchup against Nebraska. While his record might not show it, MacIntyre has done a decent job at Colorado, which most admit is the second toughest job in the Pac-12 (after Oregon State). Even with all this upheaval though, don’t be surprised if the Buffaloes manage to find a way to be bowl eligible in 2018.
(6) Arizona State University (“ASU”):
Arizona State Athletic Director Ray Anderson’s decision to hire Herm Edwards, as the Sun Devils new head coach, raised quite a few eyebrows this offseason. In picking Edwards, the Sun Devils hired a head coach that hasn’t coached at the collegiate level since 1989. Part of the reasoning for hiring Edwards was that he would provide the Sun Devils with “consistency,” as he was going to retain (both) of previous Head Coach Todd Graham’s coordinators. So far, the experiment has gotten off to a rough start, after Offensive Coordinator Billy Napier left to accept the head coaching job at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette and Defensive Coordinator Phil Bennett chose to retire. In replacing Bennett, Edwards hired San Diego State Defensive Coordinator Danny Gonzales, who will look to implement his “3–3–5 Defense.” In replacing Napier, Edwards decided to stay in-house, promoting wide receivers coach Rob Likens. Likens’ promotion should bode well for starting quarterback Manny Wilkins, even with him being Wilkins’ fourth offensive coordinator. The Sun Devils open their season against the University of Texas at San Antonio, before entering a tough three game stretch that has them play Michigan State, San Diego State, and Washington. Furthermore, the Sun Devils have a late season crossover game scheduled against Oregon, who they’ll face on the road. Given the significant coaching changes, and difficult schedule, it’s hard to imagine the Sun Devils doing much in Edwards’ first season in Tempe.
2018 Pac-12 Conference Champion: Washington.
The Pac-12 North will be a three-way race between Washington, Stanford, and Oregon. With Stanford’s defensive concerns, and Oregon’s coaching change, the Huskies receive “the nod” to win the North — although it will be a tight race. Assuming the Huskies win the North, they’ll likely face a tough test in the Pac-12 Championship Game, as they’ll likely face a red-hot USC team. If this ends up being the case, it’s possible that the Trojans edge the Huskies to win the Pac-12 Championship. However, the Huskies’ depth and experience should give them the edge they need to defeat the Trojans. In a year where the Pac-12 is facing many questions heading into the season, the Huskies are the conference’s best hope of making the College Football Playoff. If the Huskies can do this, they’ll be hailed as the “saviors” of the Pac-12. If they fail, the conference may need to rethink its “Conference of Champions” slogan.
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