How to win UK quiz show, The Chase

What the data tells us about your chances of winning going into the final chase

The Chase is a British quiz show that’s been running on itv since 2009 and it is delightful. A group of four contestants play against one of a team of professional quiz champions (“the chaser”), each of them getting a considerable head start and still often losing.

If you’ve never watched it before, the structure of the show is as follows: The first round is the cash builder, where contestants get a minute to answer questions to amass cash — each correct question adds £1000 to their tally. Then, in round two, they go “head to head” with the chaser, answering multiple choice questions. They can elect to play for the amount they built during round one and get a “head start” over the chaser — they need to answer five questions correctly before the chaser answers seven questions correctly. Or, they can go for a higher amount and need to answer six correctly or a lower amount (which is sometimes negative) and only need to answer four correctly. If successful, they go to the final chase, where all the remaining contestants play for an equal share of the money they’ve collectively accumulated. The remaining team members have to answer as many questions as they can in two minutes, with an additional head start of one point per remaining…