The Environment and the Economy: Correlation between CO2 Emissions and GDP
Introduction
The relationship between economics and the quality of the environment have long been regarded as a very close connection. However, how does the gross domestic product affect how much a country produces in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide? With data from the World Bank Database, one can observe the positive correlation between GDPpc and carbon dioxide emissions: as a country’s GDPpc increases, so does its production of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Human activity, which often leads to increased GDP such as goods production and services, frequently produces carbon dioxide emissions. For example, most goods and services involve some use of energy, often in the form of coal or petroleum. Therefore, as the amount of produced goods increases, the amount of fossil fuels spent also increases.
Analysis
Fig. 1 — Gross Domestic Product per capita and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2014 Data: The World Bank Database
Based on the positive slope value, and the correlation coefficient of 0.764, one can discern that these two variables are related. While the individual points are extremely scattered, there are a few explanations for this dispersal. For example, different kinds of economic development require differing amounts of energy; if a country’s services are growing exponentially but not growing in manufacturing goods, it is possible to have minimized carbon dioxide emissions[1]. Furthermore, the kind of goods and services produced in a given country can also affect carbon dioxide emissions. However, in general, a rough, overarching correlation can be made, due to the fact that increased economic activity requires energy, resulting in increased carbon dioxide emissions.
In addition, one can observe how gross domestic product growth overtime also affects carbon dioxide emissions.
Fig. 2 — China GDPpc and CO2 Emissions Over Time Data: The World Bank Database
In figure 2, China’s recent economic growth in relation to their carbon dioxide emissions has an obvious correlation. Much like in the data presented above, increased production has resulted in an increase in greenhouse gases.
Fig. 3 — India GDPpc and CO2 Emissions Over Time Data: The World Bank Database
Furthermore, in both China and India’s case, recent increases in manufacturing has affected their comparative graphs over the last 50 years. These two countries are useful when observing the causation and correlation between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product because of their recent and very dramatic economic development. With developed Western countries, the lines may not change enough to discern any particular relationship.
China and India show the clearest relationship between these two variables, and could be predictions for many countries on the cusp of development, like countries in Africa and southeast Asia.
Conclusion
Throughout the research process, the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product is abundantly clear in the data presented. However, in a further analysis, more research of singular countries’ gross domestic product per capita and carbon dioxide emissions could be done to grasp the full picture. Limiting data to India and China is, on the surface, helpful because one can observe how their individual and explosive economic development has affected CO2 emissions. However, looking at countries that have been developed for much longer and have more robust economies could be helpful in observing long-term effects. For example, United States gross domestic product per capita and carbon dioxide emissions could show how an economy with the wherewithal to develop more environmentally friendly methods of production, affecting their emissions. (A U.S. graph was originally included, but its inclusion was over the page limit.)
Finally, this research poses more questions for more in-depth analysis, for example: As governments and countries become rich enough invest in renewable energy and environmental protection, will the line of carbon dioxide emissions appear more like an inverted parabola? With foreign investment, will developing countries, like many in Africa, be able to curtail environmental detriment that appears to come hand in hand with expanding economies, as shown by India and China? Does a country’s economic system affect CO2 emissions? If there are fossil fuel companies and interest groups lobbying in a given nation’s government, like the United States, does it affect their CO2 emissions?
[1]Stavins, Robert. “Don’t Be Fooled. CO2 Emissions Still Tied to Economic Growth.” PBS Newshour. PBS, 06 May 2016. Web. 30 Nov. 2016
