Can Hurricane Lee do a U-turn and avoid the East Coast? explained: most recent NHC forecast

As Hurricane Lee approaches the U.S. shoreline in the next few days, millions of people are anticipating its effects.

Even as the storm quickly grew to a Category 5 hurricane, Lee’s anticipated trajectory appeared to be pointed in the direction of the East Coast for days. But there are compelling reasons to think Lee won’t keep going straight: Most of the East Coast should be spared from disaster by a few common weather systems.

As a Category 3 storm, Lee was traveling east-northeast at 12 mph on Saturday morning, nearly in the direction of the East Coast. Though it has eased a little, the storm, which is still hundreds of miles off the coast, was expected to strengthen once more, according to forecasters.

The National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone from 11 a.m. indicated that forecasters anticipate Lee to start turning later Wednesday and move roughly parallel to the East Coast while remaining well offshore. As the storm is anticipated to turn, the forecast ends.

Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, is aware of the anxiety that arises when it appears that a powerful hurricane is headed directly towards the United States. People want to know whether something is coming or not. Says Rhome on Friday. Though Lee was still hundreds of miles east of the Leeward Islands at this point in a storm, “science doesn’t let you directly answer that question.”

The interactions between a number of important weather systems over the next few days will determine the long-range forecast for next week. These systems include the hurricane, a high-pressure ridge that moves north and south across the western Atlantic Ocean and frequently directs hurricanes, and a southward dip in the jet stream that will push a low-pressure area toward Lee.

Although more sophisticated forecast models help forecasters understand the potential interaction between these substantial atmospheric systems, uncertainty still exists, according to Rhome. Therefore, we are unable to predict whether or not the Northeast U.S. Coast and Canada will see direct consequences.

He asserted that there was now little need for East Coast residents to be alarmed, with the exception of the significant rip current risk. “We need them to be aware, informed, and to check back for details.”

What’s the risk to the East Coast right now?

Florida is most likely immune to the direct effects of wind and rain, but rip currents are still a serious threat, according to Rhome.
It’s too soon to say for sure, but a significant portion of the rest of the U.S. East Coast may be spared direct effects beyond rip currents, rough surf, and erosion.
Northeastern U.S. and Canadian coastal inhabitants must be on guard and frequently check the weather. The largest unknown at this early stage may be the direct repercussions for those places.

VisualHow rip currents endanger swimmers

Where is Hurricane Lee?

The National Hurricane Center reported that as of 11 a.m. on Saturday, Lee was moving with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph and was about 250 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Will Lee turn to the north?

According to David Nolan, an atmospheric science professor at the Rosenstiel School at the University of Miami, everything is dependent on these massive weather patterns that are continually changing in the upper atmosphere.

On his way to board a plane to St. Croix for a hurricane hunter trip on Saturday, Nolan told USA TODAY that “every computer model” now indicates that there is a significant dip in the jet stream over the United States, which seems quite likely. In that case, Lee will be pushed toward the north.

Imagine an Atlantic hurricane as a storm river flowing north between two massive mountain ranges to help you better comprehend what happens. The mid-Atlantic high pressure ridge and the jet stream-driven low pressure trough are the ranges.

Andrew Orrison, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, described the move as a “squeeze play.” These storms follow the most direct route possible.

Most of the East Coast is predicted to be spared from disaster by these usually normal weather systems.

According to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alyson Hoegg, the Atlantic high pressure will push Lee along its southern border during the coming days. The low-pressure system sweeping across the eastern United States will become significant by Wednesday and Thursday.

According to Hoegg, winds from the two systems will combine by the end of the week to push Lee to the north. Plots from publicly accessible models suggest that a shift to the north or northeast is expected to occur somewhere east of the Bahamas.

Could Hurricane Lee defy predictions and continue on its current course?

No chance. Twenty years ago, the impact of the jet stream and other atmospheric factors might have resulted in unforeseen events, but not today, according to Nolan.

“There could be surprises in the past when the models weren’t as good,” he remarked. “Over the previous 20 years, the capability of the computer models over periods of 5–10 days has only increased consistently. We can almost certainly predict that Hurricane Lee will turn north.

That was also mentioned by Nolan’s coworker in a Friday post on X.

Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami and the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, declared, “This is not 1990 anymore.”

Hazelton, who arrived in Lee on Friday by plane, stated that “global models are sound.” The models’ continued agreement over Lee’s shift to the north, while it may be a few degrees to the left or right, gives forecasters more assurance.

Hurricane center’s forecast track for Lee

The official forecast track cone depicts the storm’s most likely route, not its entire width or any potential effects. Up to 33% of the time, the storm’s center may move outside the cone.

What the spaghetti model plots show

There are many different forecasting methods and models used in model plot illustrations, and not all of them are equal. The top four or five most effective models are used by the hurricane center to aid in forecasting.