Another Energy Crisis Scenario: Aftermath of a Nuclear Accident in China
In my opinion, a nuclear accident in China has two possible consequences. If we look at the first one, the pessimistic one, the aggressive policies that China generally implements can disrupt agreements with countries. This situation adversely affects both China’s nuclear industry at its borders and other countries that it has commercially and technically contracted with and will establish a nuclear power plant for. Countries may not want to have the technology of a country that has recently had a nuclear accident. Another point that China will face will arise if the nuclear power plants are closed. It will be inevitable that they give up nuclear and focus on coal and thus cause an increase in CO2 emissions. Since giving up a carbon-neutral source such as nuclear and focusing on coal will cause serious environmental pollution, it will be considered as an undesirable situation by both the environment-friendly sector in China and other countries.
In addition, there may be situations that vary depending on the cause of the accident. If it is unforeseen, some changes are expected to be made in the regulations related to the nuclear. So there may be some serious results that should be reflected in the design of the nuclear power plants. For example, after the Fukushima accident, “design extension conditions” were taken and mitigating activities were expanded.
On the other hand, I can say that the second scenario is much more optimistic. According to this scenario, it can be claimed that in case of a nuclear accident, the Chinese will even act more cautiously, as in Covid-19, and they can be a role model for the world. In terms of the nuclear energy market, it is possible that the markets may not be affected at all because the negative situation experienced in only one of the tens of reactors does not bind the other reactors in the sense of “shut down”. So, it can be expected that the others continue to operate normally.
The nuclear industry and the IAEA will of course analyze the accident in China in detail, but this will not lead to similar worldwide consequences after Fukushima. In fact, the nuclear industry is now far from to consider where it is actually making mistakes, whether it is missing or not, because it has recently completed its “curve” in the Fukushima accident. In other words, the accident will create short-term and low impact news. The nuclear industry has now become quite stable after Fukushima. Therefore, any nuclear accident will not make tremendous impact more than any thermal power plant accident.
Moreover, the manner and method of rule in China is another important point to be emphasized. Instead of the aggressive policies I mentioned in the first scenario, there will be much faster recovery if they show that they are keen on international cooperation in openness and transparency which are very significant conditions in the nuclear industry.
In addition, countries with a large number of nuclear power plants compete with an accident scenario much more successfully than countries with a small number of power plants. In general, countries with a small number of power plants are economically weak countries. They have been reduced from other expenses in order to become power plant owners. Therefore, any accident can ruin such countries financially. Actually, from a daily perspective, it can be indicated that owning a car does not mean that you have a knowledge about its repair or you are able to make a new one, and there is no wealth, technical know-how and experience in these countries to fight with the consequences of an accident. However, countries as China are more technically prepared for accidents or any problems thanks to their large number of power plants and other equipment/components like boric acid in their stock. This means that you can sprinkle or do not waste time buying boric acid from abroad; hence, you will be more ready to mitigate the negative situations.
