Yichuan WangThe Failure of Fed Funds Futures to Predict the start of TighteningThe failure of fed funds futures to predict the start of the tightening cycle can be viewed through a risk neutral pricing perspective…Mar 31, 2015Mar 31, 2015
Yichuan WangMarket-Based Probabilities: A Tool for PolicymakersThe gap between market forecasts of inflation based on securities prices and where inflation actually goes is a feature, not a bug.Mar 25, 2015Mar 25, 2015
Yichuan WangThe Danger of Stock in the Long RunI use simulations of stock market histories to show how long run investing is much more risky than is commonly believed. I show that:Mar 18, 2015Mar 18, 2015
Yichuan WangWhy Rebalance?Return data without an underlying economic model tell relatively little about the virtues and dangers of rebalancingFeb 24, 2015Feb 24, 2015
Yichuan WangDid Dish Distort the Auction?A case in which something unfair turns out to be efficient and revenue maximizingFeb 21, 2015Feb 21, 2015
Yichuan WangHousing Prices and Monetary Policy: The Long HistoryA long 140 year history on housing prices and interest rates provides evidence that lower short term interest rates have significant…Feb 19, 2015Feb 19, 2015
Yichuan WangWhat Germany can Learn from Interwar FranceThe story of interwar France should warn governments of the consequences of large capital flows in a fixed exchange rate area.Feb 17, 2015Feb 17, 2015
Yichuan WangThe Problem with Musical ChairsScott Sumner has a recent paper with the Adam Smith institute outlining the basic tenets of Market Monetarism. In this paper he discusses…Feb 12, 2015Feb 12, 2015
Yichuan WangLong Term Bonds, Risk Neutral Pricing, and How Small Shocks get MagnifiedIf I knew for certain that the German 10 year bond would trade at a 3% yield in a year, I would be fantastically bullish on Eurozone stocks…Jan 28, 2015Jan 28, 2015
Yichuan WangWhy Currency Wars are ExpansionaryCurrency wars are expansionary. At least, so long as central bankers keep their eye on domestic aggregate demand, there’s no reason for one…Jan 26, 20151Jan 26, 20151