Home Emergency Preparedness

10 steps to mitigate unlikely worst case scenario

Unfortunately the middle of a crisis is the worst time to be preparing for said crisis. However, things can always get worse so taking action is still better than inaction.

If you are reading this long after the Coronavirus crises of 2020, then consider yourself lucky and make use of the opportunity and the time you have to take proper actions. If not, still do the best you can with the time and resources at your disposal. Let’s go…

Why Prepare — “I’m not some paranoid tin foil hat prepper”

Do you put your seat belt on every time you drive? What about a short trip to the grocery store? Most people will say yes, but why? Do you expect to hit an immovable object at high speeds or be ejected through your windshield? No, of course not. The odds of that happening at any point in your life is fairly low, and the odds of it happening today is extremely low. But you still do it because the marginal cost of taking 3 seconds to put your seat belt on is worth the catastrophic downside risk should you need it.

Having your home prepared for an emergency follows a similar line. It is something you can basically do once and then forget about it. The marginal cost is minimal, but the downside mitigation could mean the difference between life and death, so the potential upside is basically infinite. You just have to stand up to the possible ridicule that some of your peers would give you, or stay a closet prepper like I had (previously) been. Today I’m coming out because too many people have been asking for advice and I want to share my knowledge and experience.

But what are the odds?

In any given year there is some non-zero chance of a major emergency happening around you. Even if it’s a 0.5% chance in any given year (once in a 200 years event!), there is a 22% chance it will happen in your life (say, the next 50 years). A low cost hedge to prepare for a 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 chance of a catastrophic event happening in your lifetime seems like a good bet to make.

How this article is structured

This piece is set up using three contemplated scenarios of escalating severity. Each one gives you actionable steps to do to prepare. You can go up to the level you deem appropriate for yourself.

Scenario A: Sheltering in place. No breakdown in rule of law.

In this situation, we might face a short term lock down and temporary disruptions to comfort items and the economy’s supply chain. Examples can be unexpected natural disasters or a virus response lockdown. We may be reliant on the government to distribute food and water because commercial supply chain is heavily disrupted either by decree or by circumstances. For this scenario you are likely best staying at home (or your designated sheltering place). The biggest physical concerns will be food, water, and medicine.

Step 1: Water

One to two gallons of water per person per day is a decent rationing consideration, though of course it depends on your climate and thirst. This scenario does not contemplate a breakdown in water supply, because a break down in water supply would very quickly escalate to scenarios B and C. Here are some general considerations:

• Having 10–20 gallons of water at home is always a good idea. Buy bulk containers and fill them up at home. Do not do this with 100 single quart plastic bottles. You can be creative, such as filling up 10 gallon water coolers (example at Home Depot) or traditional USGI 5 Gallon water cans (still available on Amazon). At worst case, any sealable bucket from a hardware store will do for now. As a last resort, I’m sure people have seen enough movies to think of filling their bath tubs, but don’t let it get to that. The best water containers are the ones you can drive away with if you have to relocate.

• Have some method of purifying water should your house still receive water but it is of uncertain quality. Something like the Lifestraw Bottle is good for 1000 gallons on one filter. You can also buy back up filters (they tend to clog up after a while). If backlogged at Amazon, look at other retailers or visit your local REI type or sporting goods store. I also recommend the Sawyer Water Filter. That one is also good for a whopping 100,000 gallons, so basically a lifetime supply. Having bleach/chlorine will also help purify water; around one capful per gallon of water depending on how dirty it is. If it’s physically dirty then run it through a t-shirt first to get tanigble dirt out. Don’t forget you can also boil water to sanitize it.

Step 2: Food

Scenario A is not a long term scenario, so you don’t necessarily need 30 year shelf life freeze dried foods. If you know when the crisis will be happening such as a forecasted hurricane or if you’re in the middle of a slowly developing virus spread, just go out and stock up on 1–2 weeks worth of normal food for your family. If you can’t resupply yourself with new food after 1–2 weeks then you are no longer in the presently contemplated scenario.

If you are preparing in advance and not in a midst of a crisis, you will want to purchase some freeze dried foods. They actually taste quite good, are healthy, have no preservatives (yes, that is all true — I eat freeze dried food all the time just because they are so convenient). Unfortunately during a time of crisis normally recommended freeze dried foods will no longer be available for purchase online (such as of the writing of this post). I tried to find something on Amazon to link but found nothing I could recommend. If you want to see whatever is available, search for “freeze dried food” and sort from most expensive to least expensive. Currently all makers appear out of stock. During normal times you can buy a 30 day supply quite easily. I would recommend a 3 month supply packagge. During a time of crisis, you can also visit a a place like REI to see if they are not sold out yet of camping food. But you are probably stuck with “regular” food if in a middle of a crisis. Get high caloric mixes that last such as; rice, pasta, peanut butter, olive oil, and of course canned foods. Specifically, portable peanut butter is high in calories, portable, and has relatively valuable nutritional value.

Step 3: Medicine: It may be too late for people already in crisis, but having a good stock of prescription medicine is important, with increasing seriousness depending on the seriousness of the condition. This is something to request through your doctor. As far as over the counter medicine, you should stock up on:

• Loperamide Hydrochloride, the common anti-diarrheal ingredient found in medicines like Imodium. Diarrhea is the second global cause of death for children under 5. For those of us living in the west, it is not on our medical forefront, but it will be for both children and adults in an emergency situation. It will literally kill you.
• Iboprofen, the common ingredient in headache medicines. Can also combine with asprin as a general pain relief.
• Chapstick should you find yourself in exposed areas.
• Liquid bandage, such as New Skin. I would suggest several 1 ounce bottles. These are amazing for cuts, are antispectic, and outlast bandages. Also available at places like CVS.
• Medical kit (example); you should also have a standard medical kit, which typically includes bandages of various sizes, steri-strips, athletic tape, burn gel, surgical gloves, cutting shears, and I would also add blister blocks.

Step 4: Misc Support Items for Scenario A

• For this milder scenario, you can also add items like candles, if you have a fireplace — firewood, fire starters (my preferences one and two), matches, a couple lighters — and battery backed lantern lights. Keep things in zip lock bags, and also invest in some dry bags.
• A good supply of batteries of various sizes including AA and AAA (at least 30 of each), and Lithium Ion chargers for your devices (I would suggest two of these or similar). Something that can charge a device from AA batteries is also a nice to have.
• Add whatever comfort items your family may need to spend quality time together, but you hopefully already have all those.
• I also carry a drone with me such as the DJI Mavic Air. Being able to get a birdseye view of what is going on around my neighborhood (or one I’m considering relocating to) without having to or being allowed to leave my house could be invaluable.
• Leatherman type tool is always good to have around. The Leatherman Charge Titanium is my every day carry.

Scenario B: Mild breakdown in rule of law. You may be leaving at some point, but you expect to come back in the not too distant future.

In this situation the sheltering at home is showing cracks because the government is not able to provide enough life support. As we have seen from many natural disasters, the government is actually quite impotent in its ability to provide life support at scale. Even if you prepared food and water, and it may seem like many others have as well, millions of people will not. The system could show cracks very quickly. In this scenario people will do whatever they need to survive and your threat is now no longer just the original emergency or your personal water supply, but also other people. Things will therefore become increasingly controversial from here.

Step 5: Security

Guns are a controversial topic in this country, and this is not intended to debate gun policy. When crises happen, people buy guns, and you will wish you had one if your back was against the wall protecting your family.

Here is the google trend search for “buy gun” in the midst of coronavirus:

Google searches for “buy gun” as of the day of this post

I’ve gotten reports from gun stores across California that they are out of stock and some have even closed down because they cannot receive any new inventory. Consider also this trend:

Google searches for “unemployment insurance” as of the day of this post

And combined with the fact that people are fearing for their lives, this is all not a great recipe for security. You need to be able to keep yourself and your family safe.

Some people are already firearm experts or have many of their own, in which case they can disregard this paragraph. But for others, I would recommend simply starting with a handgun (or two — two is better than one) of a common caliber such as 9mm. “Gun people” will debate forever on which handgun is best for them, but for most it’s more like buying a sedan. You just pick something that you like and you fit in. In this case, that fits in your hand well. Then something many people overlook is ammo. I would suggest at least 1000 rounds. More magazines are better then less, but going over 10 magazines for a specific firearm begins to have diminishing returns. Also make sure you get a proper holster for your gun, a safe, and most importantly practice using it. If properly instructed, even one time shooting a gun is enough to get a foundation. One little known fact is that many (if not most) members of the US military shoot a live firearm only once a year to maintain proficiency. Yes, you can also buy a rifle, but the main gain is in having anything, and a handgun is where I would start if you don’t have one. An semi-automatic 5.56mm rifle would be second. A 12 GA shotgun could be used for hunting as well.

Step 6: Navigation

Electronic: We should assume data networks will not be working, so if you rely on your phone for maps, this is a good time to prepare alternatives. Most likely GPS will continue to work, so your phone (or any GPS device) will itself work just fine. The one thing you won’t have is the map to see the context of what your location means (that’s downloaded over internet data). So the main thing you need is an app with downloadable maps. I use “Motion-X GPS” and have the whole world downloaded to a usable resolution. Keep the device in airplane mode and it will last for quite a while (the GPS is still on!). There are certainly other options, and you can even download maps from Google Maps and store them on your phone, but those are of limited download size (such as roughly a medium sized US State). I can provide more detailed guidance on this if there is interest, but the key is understand that GPS is satellite based and does not need cell data or a network to function. You just need to have the visual maps downloaded on your phone in advance.

Paper and Compass: As part of my vehicle’s emergency kit, I also keep a physical US road atlas map. As situation worsens, you may need to rely on this to get to your destination. It is also a good idea to have a local map paper backup, and a compass.

Step 7: Communication

This is a hugely underappreciated topic. We have all become so accustomed to a world of instant communication that we don’t give it much thought. However, we don’t have to just worry about cell towers ceasing to function. In case of an emergency the overcrowding of the networks may mean you will not be able to get through. There are two aspects to consider; alternative comms and no-comms plans.

Alternative Comms

The Garmin InReach Explorer+ is a civilian item but uses the government’s Iridium satellite network to communicate via text messages. From anywhere in the world, you can text any normal phone or receive texts from anyone, and you can text others who have the Garmin and completely bypass the phone systems. So this is a nice feature to be able communicate with loved ones and I would certainly expect it to continue working under Scenario B. The US military uses the same network, so in theory they could shut if off for civilians but I would not expect enough heavy civilian use on the network to hopefully warrant that. I would expect that if/when the phone systems cease working, the Iridium network would continue working for at least several days if not months or more. This device is also a map and GPS, which is an added benefit.

No-Comms

• Family internal: In the event that the internet/phones are not working, you need to have a family internal “no-comms plan”. That can be as simple as “everybody meet at the house” but what happens if somebody doesn’t show up? What’s the plan then? What is the plan if you are not able to get a hold of a loved one that you expect to see. Do you have an alternative meet up location? What happens if you go looking for them and they get home looking for you while you’re out? If anybody leaves the house looking for somebody, have a pre-agreed upon location where you will write down who is going, what they are taking with them, where they are going, and when they expect to be back. Plus what to do if they don’t come back on time. There can be a lot more to this, but this is a start.
• Extended family: An even more complicated no-comms plan is for extended families. Do you intend to link up at their house or yours? Will you both be traveling and missing each other? Will you go to a family ranch somewhere or perhaps a third party house that is better prepared? How long will you wait for each other? These are all some of the basic components of establishing a plan that will work for you.
• I also have some normal walkie-talkies that I would take with me in case you need to communicate across vehicles or around your vicinity.

Step 8: Vehicle Kit / Bug Out Bag

For your vehicle I would recommend something that can air up tires and also have a heavy duty battery jumper (along these lines from Amazon). If your vehicle has a spare tire, you should also know how to change your tires. Keep your vehicle properly maintained, and don’t wait until it’s empty to gas it up. The worse things are looking, the more often you should be filling up to a full tank. It’s also not a bad idea to also have a 5–10 gallon fuel container in your garage filled up as a backup. You can those buy red gas containers at many gas stations, Wal Marts, etc.

Your Bug Out Bag is something you pack once and forget about. I would recommend a soft shell duffel bag that has both 1) wheels and 2) backpack straps. These are critical so you can easily take it longer distances (wheels) but can also put it on your back and if you need to go across more difficult terrain. I prefer the Eagle Creek Cargo Hauler Ultra-Light.

Fill your Bug Out Bag with the essentials we’ve been discussing in this article. I recommend having a duplicate set of everything so you have one complete set of gear in your Bug Out Bag that you simply do not ever touch or open, and another set as your “working set” around the house. This way it ensures that if you have to pick up and move quickly, you are never wondering if the bag has batteries, or a leatherman, or a map, etc.

Step 9: Shelter

By this step, we are starting to talk some pretty long term scenarios. No need to get fancy here, but as you may find yourself on the move, you will want some sleeping bags for everybody and a decent tent. I could get into a lot more details here, but you will already be at the 80/20 solution if you just have some of those basics.

Step 10: Money

In this scenarios, you should also consider having some amount of cash set aside (1–2 months of your income worth), and depending on how paranoid you want to get, gold and silver coins if things transition to Scenario C.

Scenario C: Complete breakdown in rule of law. You’re leaving and you may never be coming back.

In this scenario all bets are off and there is a complete collapse of civilization, at least for a few months. Unless you live in a rural area with access to clean water and food, you will almost certainly need to leave.

The most important component to add to this section is… “where are you going to go?” Whereas in Scenario B you may be able to stay put for a while, or make shorts trips but intend to come back, in this scenario you need a more permanent solution. In an ideal situation, you, your family, or close friends will have a remote piece of land with a cabin/house/farm that you can agree in advance is your ultimate Alamo plan. It’s where you may have to plan to sustain yourself indefinitely.

Bonus Step: Conduct a thought experiment of the unthinkable

• Plan: Some plan, any plan, is better than no plan. Have a conversation with your partner, family, and close friends. Where would be the best place for you to go meet in case of total breakdown. You may seem crazy to them and they may tease you, but you’re not actually planning on this ever happening, it’s just an absolute worst case scenario. Things to consider are long term food and water supply, weather, and proximity to other people (probably the fewer people the better). In a truly ideal world, you also stock up your destination location well in advance.
• Knowledge: I don’t have room in this post to teach people how to setup food traps, snare animals, or start a fire with sticks (hint: all of those are incredibly difficult!) Given how unlikely this plan is, it doesn’t make sense for most people to spend time actively cultivating these skills. But there are some basic things you can still do. I personally recommend just owning the SAS Survival Guidebook. At worst case it can make for some interesting reading and at best case it will save your live. I would put this in your BOB “Bug Out Bag.” If you are religious, consider keeping a bible in the same spot. Keep them in a waterproof bag.
• Mindset: It doesn’t have to be a zombie apocalypse for this scenario to happen. Perhaps it is really just a food shortage that will last for a year. Millions of people dying from starvation is not a new phenomenon for the human race and in fact happened multiple times in the 20th century. Your mindset should be one of surviving with honor. One that is resilient, hopeful, seeking solutions and not lamenting the past. It’s generally a good attitude to have anyway, so cultivate it daily no matter the scenario.

As of March 19, 2020, it may be too late to get your hands on some of the items on this list, but get what you can. Besides searching online, if you are still in part of the nation that allows free movement (outside California, Pennsylvania, and some others), visit sporting goods stores, surplus stores, and general stores like Wal-Mart which have an outdoor section. Get what you can, and remind yourself to properly stock up after this emergency so you can be better prepared for the next and possibly bigger crisis.

Fear and anticipation is nearly always worse than the threat itself. Stay calm, and good luck to you all.

About the author: My background in emergency preparedness includes combat deployments in the Marine Corps, the Army Special Forces, attending the military’s most rigorous survival training program in addition to survival training in desert, jungle, and urban environments. I also have over 20 years of personal experience in outdoor hiking, backpacking, and home emergency preparation as a closet prepper.