Opinion , By Henok Tadele ,HAILE
Since its opening in 1859, Egypt’s Suez Canal has always been a vital trade artery for international trade as it is a major getaway between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea and even between Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean.
Currently, some 12 percent of the global trade passes through this canal. According to the Suez Canal Authority, even during the international economic slowdown following the Corona pandemic, the annual revenue of the canal has surpassed 5.6 billion US dollars. Hence, the post-Corona outlook of the canal will indeed be very bright as international trade between the east and the west will continue to sour for many decades to come.
The canal not only became a major foreign currency earner for Egypt but also gave it strong leverage on international trade and politics. In 1956, shortly after Egypt nationalized the canal, it closed it to the then arc enemy Israel for nearly two decades. The blockage was a major concern for Jerusalem that, according to declassified CIA documents, it had secretly held several rounds of negotiation with the US to dig an alternative canal through the heart of Israel, though the plan never came to fruition.
It is also in our recent memory that, following the Arab-Israeli war, Cairo has totally shut down the Suez Canal for international travel for nearly a decade. That is solely as a reprisal against the rest of the world for not adequately standing against Israel. The lesson painfully learned was that Egypt could at any given time close the canal on any country if it deemed it necessary. That sort of economic reprisal is something that any country wants to avoid with Egypt, as Cairo proudly owns the only shortest passage way between the two major seas and even oceans.
Over the years, several shipping companies have complained that Cairo keeps exponentially increasing the toll rate and relevant docking charges for passing through ships over the canal. The price hick is arguably as a result of its total monopoly over the canal, among other things. The world doesn’t have any other option, so it has to pay whatever the Egyptian Canal authority demands.
However, last years 6- day blockage of the Suez Canal due to the March 23rd EVER GIVEN incident has clearly shown the need for an alternative passage way, be it for purely economic or even for geo political reasons.
According to some reports, talk of reviving cold war era alternative plans for a new canal is now resurfacing. Among them is the long forgotten Ben Gurion canal, which was an Israeli –American plan to open another canal through the Southern port of Eilat. The canal was planned to cut through the Negev Desert to all the way to the Mediterranean Sea. Some reports have indicated that the United Arab Emirates is currently in secret talks with Israel to develop that canal.
My argument is that, in many ways, more than any other country except Israel itself, the canal would serve Ethiopia’s best interest than any other internal projects that Addis Ababa have planned including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The benefits span many fronts, including economic, Geo-politics, security and international relations.
Therefore, Addis Ababa shouldn’t be ideal on this matter instead needs to quickly join Israel and any other party who is keen to jointly develop the Ben Gurion canal. Yes, it would be a very expensive proposal that might easily surpass 9 billion USD, roughly two billion dollars more than the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD ).However, the economic gain from the new canal would undoubtedly far outweigh the expense as the project will soon turn profitable, besides the expense would be shared between the co-developing countries.
In my humble opinion efficiently designed 21 century new canal in Israel could easily collect somewhere between 3–6 billion a year in the near future, as international trade between the east and the west is continuing to soar for decades to come as countries of the south are registering impressive growth.
If Israel revives the Ben Gurion canal project, it will add significant revenue to its economy. It will help it to even more diversify the economy. It will also create thousands of new jobs and will help it to develop new strategically important cities around it. More than anything else, it improves Israel’s stance on the international arena, thereby revamps its national security interest.
Regarding Ethiopia, co-developing the Ben Gurion canal with Israel could help it earn more revenue, minimize its dire foreign currency shortage, enable it to finance many other hydro power and irrigation projects back home over the Nile, thereby insuring universal access to electricity and food security at home.
It will also put it right at the center of international trade. Hence, it will give it a more powerful international leverage to pursue its long sought water resource development agendas and, at the same time, minimizes Egypt’s leverage on the international arena to launch international pressure against Ethiopia’s water resource development ambitions.
Even if the project doesn’t profit much for Ethiopia, it will give Addis Ababa a strong leverage to correct historical injustice faced by Egypt against Ethiopia’s inalienable right to use its share of the Nile water.
Regarded as the water tower of Africa, Ethiopia contributes some 86 percent of the Nile water that reaches Egypt. However, Cairo and Khartoum have long been denying Addis Abbas right to use its share of water resources no matter how hard Ethiopia pushes equitable utilization agendas.
For decades, Egypt’s massive lobbying campaign on an international arena has successfully hampered Ethiopia’s ability to develop its share of the Nile water. Several planned dams in Ethiopia have been halved due to lack of international finance, mainly due to Cairo’s upping of international pressure on Addis.
Egypt’s success in pressuring the international community and international financial institutions against Ethiopia mainly emanates from two basic reasons. One, its long perceived leadership role in the Middle East, now this role is increasingly weaning as new powerful countries are emerging in the Middle East, and two, the importance of its Suez Canal in world trade.
Hence, the second one remains. Since the Suez Canal is the shortest passage way between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea, any country that antagonizes Egypt would fear losing its access to the Suez canal. This for Ethiopia means in the eyes of the international community, Egypt’s saying has always been more important than Ethiopia’s, no matter how unjust and incorrect it is. The result is, over the last five decades, no matter how lucrative Ethiopia’s projects are on the Nile, western or even some eastern financial institutions have always kept shying away from financing the projects.
Lack of finance to develop the Nile River in Ethiopia has always been a source of food insecurity. The great famines of Ethiopia in the 70’s and the 80’s have reportedly killed more than 1.5 million people. Irrigation projects like that of in Egypt and Sudan would have saved the lives of at least a million.
Even at this stage, Egypt’s stance on clinging onto its perceived and deeply flawed historic water right narrative coupled with the vagaries of climate change could make biblical proportion famines highly likely in Ethiopia at any given time, but not in Sudan and Egypt as the river continues to flow. It seems for Cairo and Khartoum, Addis Ababa is the only party destined to face the brunt of famine, while it is expected not to touch a drop of water under any circumstances.
After several unfruitful trials to get finance from international financial institutions to develop its share of the Nile water for irrigation or at least for solely hydro power, the leadership of Addis Ababa has learned that it has to develop its water resources from its own meager resources. The result was the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is currently a massively publicly supported project anywhere in the world.
Cairo’s propaganda bull horns keep loudly blowing war even though the dam is nearing fait accompli. Some westerners fear that an all-out Ethio-Egypt war over the Nile resource would kill many people in Ethiopia. However, in the streets of Addis, many people think that Egypt’s war of lobbying against several Ethiopian planned irrigation projects over the Nile has already killed millions of Ethiopians by way of famine. Real conventional all-out war with Egypt would undoubtedly kill far less people than the biblical proportion hunger. In my opinion, that is the reason why many Ethiopians are not that scared of Cairo’s daily trait of war.
At any rate, for Ethiopia, developing the Ben Gurion canal with Israel and other interested parties will definitely be a multi-pronged approach to check mate Cairo and minimize its strong lobbying power against Ethiopia’s water resource development aspirations. For Ethiopia, that canal is much more than any current internal economic project. It would be a master key to economic freedom.
In light of the current Arab pivot to Israel, most Middle Eastern countries, especially Saudi Arabia, would also benefit highly from the Ben Gurion Canal as it undoubtedly places Neom, Riyadh’s new ultra-modern business and technological city, at the very center of international trade.
Therefore, Dr, Abiy Ahmed’s administration should think out of the box. Run a full swing to join the talks with Israel and if need be, behave well at the UN summit regarding the issues of Israel.