Better Organizational Decision Making

  • The Conformation bias will stop you from evaluating evidence contradictory to your view
  • Clustering illusion will let you recognize patterns in data and overestimate their importance
  • Conjunction fallacy will have you believe that a special set of circumstances are more likely than a general one.
  • Active reflection, I fully subscribe to the point of view that we “don’t learn from experience, we learn from reflecting on experience”. Reflection is the mechanism we have to analyze and produce new insights. You observe prior experiences and your capabilities to abstract and conceptualize help you improve on your future decisions.
  • Decision logging and review (reflection). From a learning point of view making a note of the decision. Understanding what went into it, and then, carefully considering the merits of it.

A Sample Decision Making Framework

  • A clear, objective problem definition. Ensuring we understand the problem at hand.
  • Risk assessment. What is at risk? Understand whether the decision really needs to be made now, or whether it can be postponed.
  • Is the decision reversible? If we go one way, how far down the road can we travel and still back out of the decision and choose an alternative route. This should inform how fast you can make that particular decision.
  • Decision criteria. The criterion by which we judge the decision. Do we give different weight to different criteria?
  • Potential options, a list of options that are, or can be made available to us.
  • Potential outcomes, ties into understanding what is at risk
  • Action - making a decision and documenting it.
  • Reviewing the decision. As noted above, reflecting on the decision as time passes helps you learn and make better decisions down the line. I’ll make an arbitrary recommendation of a review 6 months after a decision is made. But that is obviously dependent on the decision.
  • System 1 which is impulsive, fast, emotional and unconscious of thought.
  • System 2, which is thoughtful, slow, logical and effortful.




An MBA & technology enthusiast. Loves reading good books. Mostly interested in karate, photography and cooking. Head of Operations & Co-founder at GRID

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Thorsteinn Yngvi Gudmundsson

Thorsteinn Yngvi Gudmundsson

An MBA & technology enthusiast. Loves reading good books. Mostly interested in karate, photography and cooking. Head of Operations & Co-founder at GRID

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