Ethereum choking at 5 Ts./second
I wrote my first Ethereum scalability article in 2016. Vitalik Buterin wrote a reply and called my article “absurd”. Well that’s freedom of speech isn’t it? I wrote some critical notes on Ethereum and he replied. Back here in 2017 we see how my predictions come true. This is what I wrote a few weeks ago:
Chances are big that Ethereum will kill itself before the innovation arrives. Miners will exclude a lot of Dapp interactions as they can only fit a certain amount of “people” in a room.
But there’s more. I talked about how Vitalik and Vlad told us that Ethereum could handle between 10 to 20 Ts/sec. and how my prediction was it would crack around 6 tot 7 of them per second.
Ethereum can’t and won’t scale and will probably crack way before the 10 Ts/ses. That’s 864 thousand a day and my guess is we will see trouble somewhere at 604k transactions a day or only 7 Ts/sec.
You think this isn’t strange? That it’s normal when a lot of people try to get in? Well, just think about it again. If Ethereum could handle 15 Ts/sec. it wouldn’t have a problem with processing 54,000 of them per hour. And guess where we are with the Status ico: It’s only 15,000 of them so far, plus 11,000 pending. So ask yourself: why is Ethereum having trouble with a simple ico containing of only 26,000 transactions? Why are there so many pending transactions? The answer is that Ethereum can’t handle between 10 or 20 Ts/sec. That number is way lower than told to us by Vlad and Vitalik. They talked theory and we live in the real world out here. So here’s a fact:
Ethereum can’t handle more transactions per second than Bitcoin.
So, I just said it. Don’t believe me? Here’s the Ethereum gasstation showing where most gas is going. Here’s a screenshot:
As you can see Status isn’t the only thing responsible for the current stress. ENS registar (domain names) has a system built in that allows people to register/bid on domains. These are all blockchain interactions. Etherdelta allows you to trade coins. Each bid/ask/sale on that dapp is a blockchain interaction. All these little dapps add up to 5 Ts/sec. quite fast. And the most ironic thing is that Status.im makes it more easy for people to interact with the blockchain without using a full node. So if 5 people in the same second interact with Ethereum the system cracks! No IoT, no decentralized Uber and no dapp for your daily gamble. Ethereum is out of capacity and there’s not even 1 testnet supporting the promised “Sharding” at the moment. In other words:
There’s no solution to Ethereum’s scalability problem in the near future.
Don’t say nobody saw that coming: