From time to time I read about the next big thing that may come and kill all our jobs. Programmers aren’t alone in having this fear as the next generations will see AI killing many jobs. However, I do think that programming jobs are relatively safe, let me explain why:
Fear #1: Will a new product/technology/AI kill my programming career?
No, web developers don’t need to worry that Wix will kill their jobs, just like desktop developers shouldn’t worry about a new drag ‘n’ drop flavour of the month, or server-side developers need worry about serverless technologies. There simply isn’t yet a system that takes a bunch of vague, high-level requirements and turns them into a working software product. Not even close. If your job involves thinking, communicating about requirements with people (e.g designer, product manager) and finding solutions then the only thing that can replace you is another human being. Perhaps in 20–30 years will see this changing, but obviously I don’t think anyone can feel completely safe about their career in 20–30 years.
Fear #2: Will hordes of cheap developers kill my programming career?
People in richer countries are often scared of being replaced by cheaper labour (either through outsourcing, remote work or immigration). As for outsourcing: While a good solution for some projects, it’s definitely not going to replace all in-house projects. Having in-house control of a project is still perceived to be an important asset. Same goes for remote work as well; while some managers may be able to manage a completely remote team, offices and managers that sit with their development team in-house is going nowhere.
Another thing to keep in mind: globalisation can actually work for you in great ways: there’s programming jobs in so many cities around the world. If god forbid some disaster strikes nothing is stopping you from finding work elsewhere. This can’t always be said about lawyers, accountants or sometimes even doctors.
Fear #3: Will Agism kill my programming career?
You might be onto something here, ageism is a real thing and I do think that this is a real issue. However, while I do believe age can damage one’s career, it’s probably more about stagnation than industry-wide discrimination. As you grow older you are expected to have a deeper knowledge of your domain, become more senior and sometimes even a mentor to juniors, yet still remain updated on the latest developments of your domain. If you fail in any of the two your career may suffer, and I think that what happens to some older developers. I’m not saying keeping up that way is easy, but with the right commitment and life-long learning, you will gain deeper knowledge, and if you invest a few weekends you will still know your reactjs, your angular 10.4 or whatever new javascript framework we’ll have in 20 years. I’m not denying there’s discrimination (whether ageism or other), of course there is. I’m just saying it’s not an excuse to give up.
Fear #4: Will the economy kill my programming career?
Well the equation is easy — when the economy is doing well most people in the private sector do well and that includes programmers. If there’s another big depression no job will be safe. But I think programming became so paramount and such an integral part of any industry (seriously, can you think of a company nowadays that doesn’t employ developers or is at least dependent on programmers?) that programmers are relatively safe. I can see companies cutting down on lawyers, accountants and secretaries before they let go of IT, just because IT became a crucial, competitive area for so many industries, and I’m talking about industries that aren’t even IT related. And the companies that don’t have a strong IT team ? I think a lot of them are a thing of the past.
In conclusion: In today’s world no one can afford stagnation (unless you found some protected government job). The pace of change requires employees to adapt across industries, not just programmers. I do believe that with the right set of mind, programmers are relatively protected.