Reflections & Predictions on The State of K-pop : 2016 Q2
Foreword: I should have made this rambling in form of a vlog but somehow my lazy bum couldn’t even bother to manage time to make it, so here goes.
Suga’s about to drop his fire mixtape anytime soon, HyunA is doing just fine despite 4Minute’s disbandment, I.O.I and BLACKPINK are fresh off their debut stages and people are slowly anticipating Twice’s comeback. It is halfway through 2016 and it already feels like the K-pop scene is saturated beyond comprehensible to make sense of what is actually going on, much less what will likely to happen. And that’s why this little piece is written: to try and sort out the noise, focus on a handful of groups and see what’s going on with them, and try to forecast what will happen going forward.
(Please note that these predictions may slightly change as more information becomes known)
Twice: The all-kill visuals group has seen pleasant reception at K-Con LA, their appearances on variety shows (most noteworthy being their segment on Knowing Brothers) showcasing their offstage charms, and their fanbase is pretty solid so far. But what’s going to happen on their 3rd major comeback, which no one even knows when? Are they going to release a full-length album that revolves on the self-coined “color-pop” genre and hope that third time’s the charm? Or will they start making one song focusing on every member for a change? What will JYP PD-nim have in store for these nine girls?
One thing for sure is that JYP needs to stop testing the waters with this “genre” on the girls; most of their songs have feature an adequate showcase of many musical styles but nothing to the extreme on any of it. It seems like the only saving grace for this group is again, their visuals and variety prowess, and nothing too exciting on other departments. I fear that if their third comeback remains predictable with no fresh concept/theme in particular, their hype will most likely wane in the light of more promising rookie groups making their debut, and all that hard work doled out since the beginning of SIXTEEN will put them in a troubling position.
NCT: Remember that the CT stands for Cultural Technology, a jargon the Chairman Lee Soo-man of SMEnt envisions for the entirety of running his K-pop empire? (More on that here.) Well, he tried that on EXO to a notable level of success, but it seems that it wasn’t quite enough for his grand plans to come to fruition. Thus, NCT is born as his final frontier of spreading the hallyu wave even further across the globe with it’s ‘unlimited member’ concept, creating sub-units in as many cities as he can working with local producers to make it even more hip and happening.
With hits like ‘7th Sense’ and ‘Firetruck’ already out and paving the way for other sub-unit songs to be released, it will be a bit too early to say whether this umbrella concept of a group will be a short-lived success or a long-lasting, ever-propagating one. What’s for sure is that there will be no need to cut losses from poorly performing sub-units as collectively, the group will see success and truly live out the CT part of their name as it spreads from city to city, country to country.
MAMAMOO: For such an abstract name in the K-pop scene, this group seems to be the underdog on its way to rising stardom (and this is not related to the fact that they’re my favorite groups of the year). Their substantial talents across all aspects of singing, rapping and stage performance coupled with their sincerity, raw hilarity and no-pretense personalities offstage makes for a small but powerful force in the industry to be reckoned with. With their first full-length album still making an impact, substantial progress in their quality of songs and performances, and their very own concert coming soon, it will be near impossible for these four girls to die out quickly to other groups in the foreseeable future. If anything, they will most likely rub shoulders with other groups trying to get a hold of wins in major music programs, and will have a fair change of out-performing the rest of the competition when the going gets tough. Their current appearance in Showtime, a major K-pop variety series, is also proof that they’re slowly getting the recognition and exposure that they deserve.
Even though they won’t be as successful or widely known compared to their counterparts in rival companies, their honesty and consistent talents will make sure they will always stay relevant in the K-pop music scene now matter the magnitude of their popularity may be.
I.O.I. & BlackPink: I initially wanted to make this a “vs.” instead of an “&”, but I realized that it would do neither group any good at what’s forecasted of them. Since they are both the newest and highly anticipated rookie groups to debut within the last few months, I feel the need to combine them together and make pull off the classic compare and contrast to put things in perspective.
To put it one way, I.O.I. is going on a predictable and steady pace, knowing that BlackPink has a great start despite entering the competition only recently. Having been formed as a result of a variety show (Produce 101) which put them on the spotlight before they made their debut, I.O.I. has been in public scrutiny for quite some time, enough to make them known such that there isn’t enough room to pull off a concept radically different to what has been envisioned of them, i.e. they need to play it safe.
Thus, when BlackPink took off around the same time I.O.I. released a new music video, they took off with an ‘edgy’, powerful, and eye-catching concept (something that the YG Family could definitely pull off), it seemed like I.O.I. couldn’t really keep up with the competition, despite having a solid song and music video overall. Could it be that quantity of members does not mean quality? Is it because one had an advantage in timing than the other? Or is it because each simply have different directions to go and we as fans keep comparing them like apples to oranges? There needs to be a a slight paradigm shift in how we view these two groups, as they embark on similar routes to different destinations.
That being said, I.O.I’s immediate future will not be an easy ride as there be a 50–50 chance that member composition problems will arise and affect their quality as a group overall, but that doesn’t mean they will gradually sink down to the hallyu abyss at all. It’s a problem that can be normalized given some patience, and they will most likely survive through the rest of the years without any major upheaval. As for BlackPink, their bombastic debut has already captured the hearts of many fans pledging alliance to the YG Family, and their superb execution will certainly make 2NE1’s heavily uncertain status more bearable, if any.
F(x): Their comeback as a 4-person group with 4 Walls is definitely one of the most refreshing, albeit slightly saddening, throughout their group’s history. Now with Amber and Luna being given even more creative freedom by SM, the former being active in producing her own songs and MVs and the latter getting her own solo album, as well as their subsequent Docking Station solo concerts earlier this year were also largely successful it seems that their relevance will be healthily sustained throughout the course of 2016. Nothing grim at all for these 4 ladies in the immediate future as they continue to produce other secondary releases such as those at SM Station for the rest of the year.
GFRIEND
Ah yes, the rising rookie girl group. They have only debuted last year, but they have so quickly solidified their position in the Kpop scene as being the energetic and youthful yet refreshing group that is ‘new’ and different from other groups that have similar concepts. To heavily complement this, their exceptional singing abilities (one would be reminded of the time they did a special cover of Twice’s ‘Like Ooh Ahh’ and nailed it flawlessly), their ‘knife-like’ coordinated dancing and their no-punches-pulled visuals, it seems almost unlikely that GFRIEND’s success will dwindle down anytime soon. Further proof of this is supported by their overall success of their 1st album ‘LOL’ and their appearance on variety show Showtime alongside Mamamoo, the relatively new group in a similar successful standing as them. In fact, it will not be surprising should they will have their very own concert in the next year or two if they keep this momentum going.
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This post will occasionally be updated with any new predictions and predictions for other groups, so stay tuned.
