Did Joe Biden’s State of the Union Speech Boost His Poll Numbers?
Heading into the State of the Union (SOTU) address last week, President Joe Biden found himself behind former President Donald Trump in both national polls and key battleground states. Recognizing the significance of the speech, the Biden campaign aimed to spotlight the administration’s achievements, articulate Biden’s vision for a second term, and underscore the potential risks associated with another Trump presidency. Being the oldest president in U.S. history, Biden also sought to reassure voters about his vigor and mental acuity, demonstrating his readiness for a potential second term.
In this post, I will be analyzing some poll data to explore whether Biden’s SOTU address has changed the dynamics of the race.
Based on Nielsen’s research, Biden’s speech garnered an estimated viewership of 32.2 million. As illustrated in the graph, while this number surpasses last year’s figures, it falls short of the 38 million viewers recorded in 2022.
His speech departed from the typical State of the Union format, resembling more of a convention address. Without explicitly naming Trump, Biden referred to him as his “predecessor” 13 times throughout the speech. In doing so, he portrayed the prospect of a second Trump presidency as a peril to democracy both domestically and internationally. These statements align with the themes of his inaugural campaign speech, delivered close to Valley Forge in early January.
Biden seized the opportunity to urge Republican lawmakers to back his legislative priorities, notably the $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan and the much-maligned border bill. While avoiding explicit mention of “abortion,” he extensively discussed women’s reproductive rights, linking this issue to his belief that the upcoming election serves as a referendum on American commitments to democracy and associated liberties. He further reiterated his stance on the Gaza crisis, while also indicating his increasing frustration with the Israeli government’s management of the conflict.
The headline of Nate Silver’s Substack post on the State of the Union (SOTU) encapsulates my perspective on the speech: “Biden’s focus should be on winning public opinion, not just the opinions of pundits.” The speech received praise from numerous pundits, including Ezra Klein who recently proposed replacing Biden with a new Democratic nominee at the upcoming convention in Chicago. Klein’s prior argument stemmed partly from the Hur Report’s portrayal of the president as “a sympathetic, well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory.” After the SOTU speech, Klein recognized Biden’s evident energy for the upcoming rigorous campaigning. However, he also underscored the persistent challenge confronting the Biden campaign in gaining voter support for his candidacy.
Klein’s observation is significant. Similar to Silver’s perspective, for Biden’s SOTU message to have an impact, it must strike a chord with his unenthusiastic base while also appealing to independent voters and moderate Republicans who might be considering backing Trump.
In this regard, polling data suggests that Biden’s speech had minimal impact on the trajectory of the race. Despite the address’s objectives and strategic messaging, it appears that the overall dynamics of the race remained largely unchanged following the delivery of the speech. In this post, my primary focus will be on examining the competition between Biden and Trump. If you’re interested in exploring the potential impact of third-party candidates on the race, I encourage you to check out my previous post.
According to the polling average compiled by RealClearPolitics, the most recent data suggests that Trump holds a slight lead with 47% of the vote, while Biden trails behind at 45.1%. However, if we rewind to March 7, 2024, the numbers were slightly different, with Trump polling at 47.5% and Biden at 45.8%. Despite these variations, it is worth noting that these changes fall within the margin of error. This implies that the shifts in support observed between these dates may not necessarily reflect significant changes in public opinion but rather statistical noise inherent in the polling process.
Analyzing the national polls from the past two weeks, collected by ABC News and FiveThirtyEight, and employing a linear model to visualize each candidate’s support, it is evident that Trump continues to hold a lead.
There are signs that Biden has managed to narrow the gap, showing some improvement in his support. However, it is crucial to note that these observed changes fall within the margin of error. Therefore, while Biden’s progress is noteworthy, we must interpret these shifts cautiously.
Likewise, Biden’s approval rating has exhibited stability over the past week. FiveThirtyEight’s analysis indicates that as of March 7, 2024, Biden’s net approval rate stood at 38.1%, with 56.3% of Americans expressing disapproval of his performance. The most recent figures remain consistent, with 38.4% of individuals approving of his work and 55.7% disapproving.
Following Biden’s SOTU address, new polls were conducted in the following battleground states: Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The outcomes of these polls will play a crucial role in determining whether Biden can secure a second term in office.
Securing a majority in the electoral college holds greater significance for Biden’s election victory than simply winning the popular vote. These battleground polls indicate that the former president is expanding his support. Should Biden defend the states he won in 2020 but lose these crucial states, Trump would clinch the election with 280 electoral votes compared to Biden’s 258.
Is there any positive development for the Biden campaign? Remember, this race is more of a marathon than a sprint. There’s ample time for the campaign to refine its message, energize Democrats, and appeal to independents. Financial resources will play a crucial role in the campaign. Encouragingly, within the first 24 hours following the SOTU address, Biden raised over $10 million. Although historical data for comparison is lacking, it is noteworthy that this marked the campaign’s “most profitable fundraising day.”
In conclusion, while the SOTU address might not have drastically altered the race’s dynamics, Biden’s speech achieved success in two significant ways. Firstly, it likely prompted pundits, such as Klein, to shift focus towards discussing substantive issues rather than fixating on concerns about Biden’s stamina, age, or mental fitness. Secondly, the campaign now has the opportunity to gauge the resonance of various parts of Biden’s message with the electorate, identifying areas for amplification and refinement. Biden’s attempt to portray a potential second Trump presidency as perilous may not resonate as a winning issue this time around. The political landscape has shifted since 2020, and the upcoming election is poised to serve as a referendum on Biden’s first term. Voters will likely scrutinize his administration’s accomplishments, setbacks, and overall performance, shaping their decisions based on the outcomes and promises delivered during his tenure. Therefore, relying solely on condemning Trump’s potential return, a central theme in his speech, may not be adequate. Instead, Biden’s campaign must underscore his accomplishments, tackle pertinent concerns, and articulate a compelling vision for the future to ensure success in the forthcoming electoral competition.
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