What I’ve learned from Al Gore — 3: on droughts, fires and food
It was a privilege to join the three day Climate Reality training by Al Gore in Berlin in the end of June. Today part 3 of what I learned from my personal highlight: an almost three hour long titillating, splashing presentation by Gore himself. It was not just interesting or fun. It was also worrying and scary. Luckily not all hope is lost if we step up our game.
Building on the first article of this series, I will describe the problem more in depth. In the next part of the series I will focus on solutions, and on what you can do yourself!
I described in my previous blog post how warmer air can hold more water. Just like warmer air sucks up water from the sea –Gore told the air above the sea currently already holds 5% more water vapor`than thirty years ago– it also sucks moisture from the soil. This lengthens and intensifies droughts.
When droughts happen there is a higher risk of forest fires. The fire season in the west of the US nowadays is 105 days longer than it was in 1970. Some people were not worried about the fires and played golf in the meanwhile, with the fire blazing behind them. Hundred thousand hectares of forest burnt away in Portugal, Chile, Italy, Croatia and the US in 2017. What is the cause of these fires? A natural cause are lightning strikes. Gore shared that for every degree Celsius that the temperature increases, lightning strikes are about 11% more likely. Each lightning strike above a dry patch of land carries with it a risk of starting a wildfire.
Droughts happen all over the world. I don’t think you’re longing for another long depressing list of places where this happens, so I’ll be brief. On every continent droughts happen. Recent examples show empty water reservoirs or extremely dry farmland, whether it being in Italy, Spain or Germany. South Korea, India or China. Sudan, Kenya, South Africa or Zimbabwe. In 2013 and 2014 I got to spend some time in Yemen as trainer for a WHO Health Leadership Program. I got to see with my own eyes what drought was doing over there. Sana’a, Yemen’s capital, was then already on its way to become the first capital worldwide without access to drinking water.
What happens if you don’t have any water? You move, and that creates conflict. It was exactly this dynamic that I wrote in my application back in 2009 to study Geopolitics, Territory & Security at King’s College. Another consequence is that food becomes more expensive, and people will start struggling to pay for their food. For my master’s degree –I was accepted– I wrote an article in which I discussed the food riots that sparked in 2007–2008. Riots occurred in more than thirty countries and toppled two governments. The political consequences of climate change are felt and this will increase. Because, what if you don’t have food? You move, and that creates conflict. We have seen large amounts of refugees. In Europe specifically from the Middle East and Central and North Africa, where droughts have been numerous.
Next to shortage of water and shortage of food, heat can cause migrant streams as well. The heat index combines humidity and temperature. I mentioned this heat index in an article published by the World Economic Forum that I wrote: if the heat index is warmer than our body temperature, we simply cannot cool down any further. This is deadly if you experience this for too long. Today, around 30% of the world’s population is having to deal with a potentially deadly combination of temperature and humidity for at least 20 days a year. If we don’t tackle climate change about 75% of the world’s population will have to endure deadly temperatures for at least 20 days a year.
What I never thought through fully, and absolutely surprised me, is what this means for our global food supply. For each degree Celsius of warming, the yield of corn, soy, wheat and rice is expected to drop between 3.1% (for soy) and 7.4% (for corn) because crops are sensitive to heat. These crops represent roughly two thirds of all human the caloric intake. A higher temperature makes an outbreak of pests much higher, and higher CO2 levels actually lower the plant’s natural defense mechanisms. On top of that, higher levels of CO2 lower the nutritional value of crops, in terms of protein and nutrients like zinc, iron, copper, magnesium and calcium. This in turn can lead to more malnutrition.
It’s clear that the consequences of climate change run deeper than we –or at least I– previously assumed. The next blog will be the last one on describing the problems. It will be on drinking water and the impact on our health. The best part will come only after the next blog: the solutions you’ve so longed for!
