Thoughts about the Internet of Things wave

It’s interesting when new technologies make their way into our lives. Every big invention changed the life of people and whole industries while the speed of change seems to accelerate. Especially interesting is the gap between the birth of certain technologies — Horace Dediu named it inception — and their mainstream adoption.

Take the mobile market for example: “Smart” phones by definition were around since let’s say 2000: Back then, the first Nokia Communicator with Symbian OS, was already able to surf the web, install 3rd party applications and had limited flash support (seriously). But it took another 8–10 years till a real mobile revolution took place with the advent of the first truly usable touch interface (iPhone) and the first moving mobile eco-system (App Store based on the iPhone SDK).

Another example from history: The first commercial transport flight took place in 1910. But it wasn’t until the 1950s that the airplane slowly replaced taking a ship or a bus as a means to transport passengers to distant locations.

The potential of IoT

This introduction brought context for the actual topic: There is a new technology wave coming, called the Internet of Things. In fact you could think of IoT as an extension of the internet which is disrupting businesses for around 20 years now. The paradigm change that we saw with music or media is now coming to even more industries and will revolutionize everything again. The full power of “Digital” hasn’t unfolded yet. The question is not if this transformation will happen, the question remains how and when. At which point of the adaption curve are we right now?

We are just at the beginning. Not the beginning of the talk about IoT and the hype surrounding it — in fact we are at the “peak of inflated expectations” (Gartner). Just look around, if you want IoT products right now, you can buy all sorts of stuff: From the automatically adjusting desk to the “intelligent” mug. These sort of products have their justification, but it’s more of an R&D accomplishment addressing early adopters than a mass-market. This xkcd comic is funny because it’s true.

But if we can get past the hype there are valid use cases for connected products. I would say we are at the beginning of getting around to take the technology to real world use cases.

I’m honest, when I first got in touch with IoT in form of ifttt 4 years ago, I was exited about the possibility that every web service could talk with another. But I didn’t foresaw the step from connecting (web) services to real life objects and the vast amount of opportunities that arise with it.

The eye-opener for me was a recent Wired article about the Magicband, a wristlet Disney offers to its park visitors:

What the world will look like once IoT is there for money and identity services: Disney World’s #magicband http://t.co/8QiaeburKT

In broad terms the Magicband enables Disney to

• make the customer experience as painless as possible (e.g. guidance to next attraction, entrance to attraction paperless)
• implement a deep personalization with the visitor
• make money transactions as hassle-free as possible (and therefore more likely)
• get data about customer behavior that was un-accessible before

No wonder other industries are knocking on their door to borrow the technology.

With the growing “toolbox” of new technologies (listed in a separate article) further use cases are possible:

E.g. a sensor in a production machine could recognize a failing part and trigger an alert — with the details where he gets the correct replacement part — to the mobile device of the nearest service engineer. The business model has moved from reactive (pain is already occurred) to proactive: The catastrophe has been avoided.

Todays gimmick for fitness enthusiasts could become tomorrows data collecting mechanism in how to navigate the company’s forklift through the warehouse in the most efficient way.

The driver itself could be equipped during night shifts with a device like Vigo, a wearable that tracks blinking and body movement. When tiredness is detected, it tells the corresponding smartphone app to send gentle vibrations and energizing audio tracks.

And everything including automation in personal homes could be applied to businesses as well, where time savings can directly be translated into money. It should work like this: When I park my car on my reserved spot, the computer boots and is ready when I’m there. On the way to my office I’m passing a beacon that pushes me my next appointment and sets my phone to silent. With my intelligent key card (which could be an invisible software service) doors open for me according to my security clearance and my PC unlocks whenever I’m near. Energy savings due to efficient use would be a nice side-effect.

The State of Affairs

Big companies have joined the ride: Industrial (GE, Siemens, Bosch, etc.), as well as big tech (Intel, Apple, Samsung, Google, Microsoft, IBM, etc.). And as with every major tech leap, new companies will emerge. Maybe it will be Xiaomi, which is already on track to offer almost every gadget possible (even air purifiers). And with their forked version of Android they have the software building block to glue it all together.

The technical advancements point in the right direction: Embedded processors and memory are becoming more powerful while getting cheaper and more energy efficient. At the time being, the common connector sits in the cloud. The open Wi-Fi movement and other proximity based transfer protocols are progressing to support that. An entirely software-based SIM would spure development even further, downgrading the role of carriers.

One could say the first real market test will be the Apple Watch. We will get new datapoints in how the consumer uses a smart device that is much closer in his everyday interactions than a smartphone. And as with the smartphone, the use cases will probably be different from what was expected in the first place.

When I was working at Deutsche Telekom we examined the “always on”-society and how that changes the way we interact with one another. Now we need to do the same kind of analysis for a society where every object is connected and people use platforms instead of apps.

Outlook

The following part is pure speculation, but it represents my futuristic vision on the progress of the Internet of Things.

I think the deployment of IoT will take place in coarsely three stages. Each of these stages have their own challenges, which have to be overcome.

1. In the first stage, in which we are nowadays, the connection between IoT devices is mostly bidirectional, often between some IoT device and a smartphone. Due to the lack or relative novelty of common protocols, these devices are often used in isolated applications for a single purpose. The challenges of this phase is to convince consumers and businesses alike of the usefulness of IoT products — nobody wants to waste money by being the first to implement a not market-ready system. In this context it will be interesting which party will drive the change. In mobile it became clear that the consumerization of IT has leapfrogged IT departments in a very short time. But in case of IoT, I’m leaning towards a business-driven future. One key aspect is deep integration: A system like the Magicband only works in the closed environment of Disney World. In the open world there are many different competing standards. Furthermore there are factors like privacy and data security that need to be dealt with. And companies can legitimate data tracking (to optimize the underlying algorithm) from their own employees much easier than private consumers.
2. In the second stage, IoT devices are able to accomplish much more difficult tasks, for which an interconnection of many devices is required. Instead of having one smart hub in the middle, every node in the network could gain some sort of “smartness”. Objects will offer services to other devices, e.g., a thermostat can answer questions like “when has my daughter arrived at school” by getting the GPS input from her smartwatch in the immediate past. From the inputs of many devices in a mesh network, probable states of the environment can be approximated — the devices in this phase make increasing use of derived insights, e.g. rising room temperature as an indicator for how many people are there.
3. The IoT systems we see today are relatively dumb once they are implemented: OTA updates are the best you can get. In the third stage, devices expand their capabilities in areas such as self-awareness and self-reflection. Devices will be able to judge the information they gather on the level of experience and thereby can reflect on their behavior, judging their sanity and informing about the uncertainty of their findings. “Ethic algorithms” need to be discussed.

After all, let me do a quick summary: When will IoT systems suitable for a mass market audience? It’s starting right now. What will happen in the future? Nobody knows exactly, but better be prepared.