2017 NFL Playoff Predictions
They look more official in a blog post, right?
The other day, whilst playing Dungeons and Dragons, my party and I began discussing the NFL Playoffs. “I don’t see anyone stopping the Patriots,” said the half-elf rogue. “But Aaron Rodgers in on fire right now,” replied the gnome druid. “Are you guys ever gonna take your turns?” asked our DM.
Long story short, I got sidetracked and practically ended up typing an essay over Facebook messenger, which means that most of this post is copied and pasted. Sorry to disappoint.
Seriously, though, I’ve predicted the NFL playoff bracket every year since I was a kid, and this year is no exception. These predictions are usually scribbled on a napkin. They’re almost always wrong. If you actually managed to open the article and read this far, though, you may as well keep going. Without further ado, here’s how I see this year playing out.
Wild Card Round
Oakland at Houston:
There are known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. Connor Cook is an unknown unknown. If he can play even semi-competently, the Raiders defense and rushing attack should carry them the rest of the way against a hapless Texans offense. Oakland wins a snoozefest with a defensive touchdown unless Brock Osweiler has done some serious soul searching in the last couple weeks.
Raiders 20, Texans 12
Detroit at Seattle:
I want to believe in Detroit. I really do. But there’s no way a dome quarterback like Matt Stafford goes into Seattle in January with the 30th ranked rush attack and escapes the Legion of Boom. Not even what’s left of it. Still, Seattle comes out sucking for 3.5 quarters until Russell Wilson pulls off another miracle to win.
Seahawks 19, Lions 13
Miami at Pittsburgh:
Fun fact: Miami hasn’t played in below freezing temperatures (Wow, a link! Hire me, ESPN!) at all this year. It’s projected to be 9 degrees at kickoff in Pittsburgh this weekend. That, and the Steelers are just better at football. Some matchups don’t need that much explaining.
Steelers 34, Dolphins 14
New York at Green Bay:
On paper, this is a pretty straightforward matchup. You have the hottest quarterback and arguably the hottest team in football, with a distinct home field advantage, going up against a walking meme:
My gut tells me that the Giants will win despite having no logical rationale. Well, maybe their #2 ranked defense. Or Green Bay’s complete inability to stop the pass. Look, I really don’t want to pick the Giants here because if they win this game then they’re going to win the Super Bowl, and no one wants that. But you heard it here first. Anyway, I’m hoping the result is more to the tune of:
Packers 41, Giants 27
Divisional Round
Seattle at Atlanta:
As a Niners fan, I’m really glad the Seahawks didn’t get home field advantage throughout. If this game were in Seattle, the result would be a lot different, but Russell Wilson won’t be able to get much going against Dan Quinn’s team in hostile territory. Atlanta’s offense will prove to be too much in the Georgia Dome. Falcons fans will be pumped. Hopefully, fake crowd noise won’t.
Falcons 26, Seahawks 13
Oakland at New England:
People who ogle at New England’s #1 scoring defense probably haven’t looked at their opponents. Their strength of schedule suggests that their defensive stats may be a bit inflated. Neither Matt McGloin nor Connor Cook is going to change that. This one ends pretty predictably.
Patriots 24, Raiders 6
Pittsburgh at Kansas City:
This was probably the most difficult game to pick out of all the matchups. The way I see it, there’s only one way to slow down the Steelers’ offense: keep the ball out of their hands. This is exactly what the Chiefs are built to do. Alex Smith-led teams average 28.8 points in the playoffs, better than all but two teams this year (spoiler: neither of them is Pittsburgh). If the Chiefs can finish their drives and manage the game, they should be able to hold on. Oh, yeah, and Tyreek Hill.
Chiefs 28, Steelers 27
Green Bay at Dallas:
For what it’s worth, I think these are the two best teams in the NFC right now, and I want this matchup to happen. This one could go either way. Logic says that the 14–2 Cowboys should handily beat anyone except the Giants, who swept them in the regular season. Not only did the Giants beat them; they also showed other teams the formula to beat them. If the Packers’ top 10 rushing defense can shut down Ezekiel Elliott and force Dak Prescott to throw, their experience should win out. Dallas will be back next year, but Green Bay wins this one in a tight contest.
Packers 24, Cowboys 16
Conference Championships
Kansas City at New England:
Here’s the thing about Alex Smith: just when you expect him to put up a mediocre performance, he goes out and drops 40+ on you. Bill Belichick can credit Andy Reid’s Chiefs with his worst loss since 2003 and, although there is absolutely no way Kansas City replicates that performance, they seem to know something other teams don’t. Yes, the Patriots knocked the Chiefs out of the playoffs 27–20 last year. But the loss of Gronk and the Chiefs’ addition of Tyreek Hill tip the scales in Kansas City’s favor this year.
Chiefs 37, Patriots 35
Packers at Falcons
They say defense wins championships. Not the NFC Championship, though — there’s no question that both of these teams are built around a high-powered aerial attack. The Packers got wrecked with injuries this year, particularly in the secondary. Not a great matchup against the highest scoring offense in the league and the 7th highest scoring offense since 1990. One would expect Julio Jones and the Falcons’ receiving corps to have a day against what are essentially practice squad defensive backs. Somehow, the Falcons managed to put up top 5 rushing numbers on top of Matt Ryan’s MVP caliber season. The thing is, I don’t think any of this matters if Ty Montgomery gets going and Aaron Rodgers finds his magic. I think he does. R-E-L-A-X.
Packers 33, Falcons 24
Super Bowl I: The Rematch
Chiefs vs. Packers
Yeah, I know most people picked the Patriots and the Cowboys. What would be the point of reading this if I picked the same teams as everyone else? Maybe a more apt title for this article would have been, “The Teams I Want to Win Who Also Have a Reasonable Chance at Doing So”. Oh well.
Going off the last few years, this looks like a classic battle of offense vs. defense. The hyper-offensive Packers face the Chiefs fearsome front seven. In reality, these teams are more similar than people realize. For one, the Chiefs and the Packers rank 24th and 22nd in total defense, respectively. In terms of yardage, both teams are statistically middling by almost every offensive and defensive measure, with two exceptions — the Packers are 7th in passing offense and 31st in passing defense. A lot of this game will come down to whether Aaron Rodgers is as good as the Packers’ defensive backs are bad.
Since this is the Super Bowl, I’m writing two whole paragraphs on it. While the Chiefs defense gave up a lot of yards, their defense adopted a “bend but don’t break” style good for 6th in points allowed and tied for 1st in turnover differential. Part of the reason Alex Smith hasn’t completely shaken his conservative reputation is because he hasn’t had to — their defense and ground game usually means he isn’t asked to do as much. Yet, when push comes to shove, he’s shown that he can hold his own in a dogfight. Do I need to remind anyone of the time he outdueled Drew Brees in my personal favorite playoff game ever? The thing is, I don’t even expect it to come to that. I think the Chiefs’ defense does a good enough job that he can play the style of football he’s comfortable with. Oh, and have I mentioned Tyreek Hill?
My prediction: Alex Smith finally gets a chance to prove that San Francisco made the right decision when they selected him first overall over Rodgers.
Chiefs 24, Packers 21
That’s about it. Thanks for bearing with me through all of this. You should give me a recommendation at the top so more people will read my stuff if I ever decide to do this again.
