2019 NFL Playoff Predictions
Spoiler alert: These are all wrong
Sometime last summer, I decided to take a trip to Chicago to see Hamilton on the cheap. Figuring I had to do something else while I was there, I looked up the Bears schedule to see if they were playing anyone good. This was at a point in the offseason when the Bears were merely an afterthought, so tickets were cheap and expectations were tempered.
As it turned out, they played their home opener against Seattle on Monday Night Football. I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to see my least favorite team get embarrassed on national television, so I booked flights and accommodations that day.
As it also turned out, they traded for Khalil Mack just before the season started, and he looked absolutely dominant in limited action against the Packers. This could be a team to watch.
Seeing him and Prince Amukamara manhandle the Seahawks in person was a sight to behold. Soldier Field is beautiful, as are Chicago’s many museums. Anyway, my predictions may be a little biased because of this, but here they are anyway.
Wild Card Round
Colts at Texans
Despite being unable to throw a football for over three years, Captain Andrew Luck is leading his battalion onto the field once again after a late season surge. The Colts have all the momentum in the world; DeShaun Watson’s Houston squad is much harder to get a read on. They’ve looked good against good teams and not-so-good against not so good teams. Much like the Colts, they seem to do just enough to win regardless of the opposition.
While their quarterback was away, the Colts quietly built an offensive line to protect him. Whether that line can protect against the likes of Jadeveon Clowney and JJ Watt will be what determines this game—and I think it can hold up. “Make your own Luck” rolled off the tongue a bit better than “go missing in Switzerland for two years while you have your Luck surgically reconstructed”, but whatever he did, it’s working. Captain Luck, First Lieutenant Darius Leonard, and the team’s imposing infantry unit will pull out a victory in this one.
Colts 24, Texans 21
X-factor: Divine intervention. I’m firmly convinced that Luck is more than just a name. When nine of the last ten Colts-Texans games have been decided by a single score, a little Luck can’t hurt.
Seahawks at Cowboys
the seahawks and cowboys are playing in palyoff game
seahwks will win but actually nobody will win becaus its the seahawks and the cowboys
actually jason garrett will win by keeping his job for another year
Seahawks 19, Cowboys 17
x factor: idk tyler lockett i guess
Chargers at Ravens
At 12–4, the Chargers are having their best season in a long time. They’re top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense, and Felipe Rios would be having an MVP-caliber year were it not for his divisional arch-nemesis, Kermit the Frog. Melvin Gordon looks good, the offensive line looks great, and Derwin James looks like the league’s next big star at safety.
But none of that matters, because the Ravens have Lamar “Muthafuckin” Jackson. The Chargers couldn’t stop Ray Rice on 4th and 29. What makes anyone think they can slow the best rushing attack in the NFL? Not to mention how inept the looked against the league’s best defense the last time they played (link). Nobody stops Lamar Jackson unless he feels like stopping. The Ravens will run train (or perhaps bus) on Los Angeles and there’s not a damn thing anyone can do about it.
It’s only a matter of time before the nation starts debating whether Lamar Jackson is elite. The President might hesitate to put Jackson in the same category as Flacco due to his, uh, mobility.
Ravens 27, Chargers 9
X-factor: Hunter Henry. He’s looked scary all year and it will be interesting to see how he matches up against Ravens’ rising star Zach Orr.
Eagles at Bears
This is the toughest game for me to predict in the entire playoffs. On one hand, I think the Bears can beat any team in the NFL. On the other hand, it’s hard to imagine the Eagles losing to anyone right now. Both teams have creative offensive minds, stout defensive playmakers, and a little bit of magic.
If there’s a team in the playoffs built to stop the Bears, it’s Philadelphia. Khalil Mack has shown that he is mortal a few times this season against veteran offensive tackles. Stopping him and Leonard Floyd is a tall task, but if anyone is up to it, it’s Eagles bookends Jason Peters and Lane Johnson. Center Jason Kelce may be able to stifle All-Pro defensive tackle/running back Akiem Hicks. As it stands, though, the Bears are the better team, and they should pull this one out.
I will say this: If the Eagles win this game, I think they win the Super Bowl. The rest of the path will probably consist of offensive teams, which the Eagles have proven they can beat with offensive firepower. But the Eagles haven’t faced a team quite like Chicago. Whichever way this game goes, I’m predicting zero offensive touchdowns.
X-factor: Khalil Mack’s penis size. In the words of Tywin Lannister, “any man who must say he is the king is no true king”. We’ve all seen the BDN memes, but Khalil Mack seems to have adopted the Teddy Roosevelt mentality of speaking softly while carrying a big stick. s it bigger than Foles’?
Bears 13", Eagles 9"
Divisional Round
Colts at Chiefs
After an impressive victory in the battle of Houston, Captain Luck marches his ragtag troops north to Kansas City to face…the potentially racist undertones that would occur if I keep going with this metaphor. The Colts are one of the few teams in the league with the firepower to keep up with Kansas City, and they’re undoubtedly a more balanced team. We all know what happened last time these teams met in the playoffs, and it’s hard to blame on the Chiefs’ offense. If they had had a gunslinger rather than a game manager, would they have put up 50?
I like the Chiefs. They became my second team once Alex Smith went there. Patrick Mahomes is the most exciting player in the league, and Andy Reid continues to come up with creative ways to scheme open receivers, including the Hail Mary screen and that one annoying play they always use near the goal line. As it stands, though, the Chiefs are the best in the league at finding new ways to lose in the playoffs.
This game will be a shootout, and very likely the highest scoring game in the playoffs. But one of these teams has a defense, and the other doesn’t.
X-factor: Literally anyone on the Chiefs defense who can generate a turnover. It could be a deciding factor when defensive stands will be at a higher premium than touchdowns. O Eric Berry, where art thou?
Colts 45, Chiefs 40
Bears at Rams
I’ve gushed about Khalil Mack enough already, but I will say one more thing: i think its hilarious u kids talking shit about khalil mack. u wouldnt say this shit to him at chicago, hes jacked. not only that but he wears the freshest clothes, eats at the chillest restaurants and hangs out with the hottest dudes. yall are pathetic lol
2018 was the year of offensive juggernauts, but we’re in 2019 now. Defense wins championships as much as it ever did. The Bears have an elite defense. The Rams do not. These teams played less than a month ago, and the formula to beating the Rams hasn’t changed. Sean McVay has made it far with brilliant tactics and Todd Gurley, but the Rams didn’t strike me as a championship squad last year, and they don’t this year, either.
For the Rams to have a shot, human bowling ball Aaron Donald has to make more of an impact than he did in the first matchup. The Bears offense is still average at best, and All-Pro Tarik Cohen can only take them so far. They don’t want to get in a dogfight — if the Rams manage to score 17, the game is theirs.
X-factor: Dreaj Foge has absolutely folded against pressure this year, and Chicago exposed him worse than anybody. He’ll need to change in order for the Rams to have a chance.
Bears 16, Rams 12
Ravens at Patriots
Since I already brought up the President’s nuanced view on what constitutes an elite quarterback, it’s worth mentioning that Tom Brady is a tremendous quarterback. You know it, everybody knows it, very good quarterback. Very good friend of mine. Big arm. Good at throwing the football. Has a very good team around him, too. You know, guys like Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, Rex Burkhead. Tremendous football players.
The Ravens match up well against the Patriots, and are one of the few teams who consistently keep their games close. Their defense should keep Brady in his scrappy band of gym rats in check for the most part. The Patriots have relied more heavily on the run game than usual this year, and the run game is precisely what John Harbaugh’s Ravens were designed to stop.
Whether or not the Ravens’ new-age offense is a gimmick remains to be seen. The Patriot have fallen to gimmick offenses before (more on that later), but I think Belichick has had enough time to find a way to slow it, if not shut it down completely.
X-factor: Tom Brady’s hands. Less than a year ago, teams were (stupidly) talking about converting Lamar Jackson to wide receiver. Meanwhile, there was another quarterback who could’ve used some tips on catching.
Pictured: CJ Beathard The next Tom Brady, according to pundits
Seahawks at Saints
The Saints seem like the resounding Super Bowl favorites, and I only have one word: Why? They have the best record in the league, sure, but they haven’t looked particularly dominant as of late, and their defense has taken a step back from last season. The team as a whole seems to be trending in the wrong direction, despite winning most of their recent games. I can’t quite put a finger on it; they just strike me as a pretender. Maybe it’s because they tend to choke when they come into the playoffs as favorites.
The Seahawks have a history of playoff upsets against the Saints, even when they only made it because everyone else in the NFC West somehow sucked worse than them. This came at a time when the Saints still had the hardest hittin’ safety in da league and all-around terrible human being Darren Sharper, and the Seahawks were still without the magic of Russell Wilson.
In the words of Leslie Odom, life doesn’t discriminate between the Seahawks and the Saints, Wilson takes and he takes, and the Saints keep losing anyway, or something. Much like Aaron Burr, Seattle will get the last laugh in this one.
X-factor: There isn’t one, really. The Seahawks will just take care of their business and outplay the Saints the old-fashioned way. Maybe Chris Carson has a big day.
Seahawks 31, Saints 14
Championship Round
Seahawks at Bears
There will be no offensive powerhouses in the NFC Championship this year. Neither the Saints nor the Rams has proven that they can go up against a great defense, and I refuse to believe they can until I see otherwise. Until then, we’re stuck with the scariest defense in the NFL and whatever the hell the Seahawks are.
Russell Wilson’s heroics are amazing, but they often happen because of a defensive meltdown on the part of his opponents. The thing is, elite defenses don’t have meltdowns. The Bears are an elite defense. I think they’ll win, but it would be in their best interest not to make it close. This could be tough considering how stagnant their Trubisky-led offense looks at times.
I wish I had more of an analysis for this game, but it really boils down to whether the apex predator, Khalil Mack, can catch up to and bring down Russell Wilson.
X-factor: Eddie Jackson, whom I expect to force a turnover or three. He can’t let Amukamara have all the Russell Wilson pick-sixes.
Bears 20, Seahawks 14
Colts at Patriots
Remember Deflategate? It’s been four years, and the Colts are hungry for revenge after having the air taken out of their balls. After all, a couple psi of pressure made a huge difference in such a close game. The Colts have reloaded since then, adding a bunch of missing pieces and hiring head coach Frank Reich. Andrew Luck has looked hapless against the Patriots in the past, but an improved supporting cast should take some of the pressure off him.
I’m sure Brady is generally aware that the Colts are not the same team they were four years ago, and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Given the teams’ playoff history, though, he likely isn’t fretting too much. Bill Belichick is still the best coach in the league, and I don’t see Reich or his players doing much to stop him.
The Colts are better than they were four years ago. They might lose by fewer than 38 points this time.
X-factor: It goes without saying, but the manner in which the Patriots misinterpret the rules could swing the game in the Pats’ favor. It could also get Tom Brady suspended again.
Patriots 35, Colts 24
Super Bowl LIII
Bears vs. Patriots
The last time the Bears had a defense this good, they whomped the Patriots in the Super Bowl behind the rushing attack of Walter Payton and William “The Refrigerator” Perry. Their QB was punky, but not all that talented. In fact, he may not have been the best QB on his team. Nonetheless, the ’85 Bears are widely regarded as one of the best teams ever, and with good reason.
Ten years ago, the late Tony Sparano utilized the 1950s “Wildcat” offense in a shocking upset of the defending champion Patriots. Three years ago, Bears coach Matt Nagy (then the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator) unveiled what is still my favorite fuck-you play of all time when 350-pound nose tackle Dontari Poe threw a touchdown pass to eliminate Denver from the playoffs. Earlier this year, Nagy’s Bears scored a touchdown out of a formation consisting of quarterback Mitch Trubisky and ten linemen.
For most of this year, Nagy has run a pretty vanilla offense save for the few times he absolutely needed points. But the Super Bowl is the time to pull all the stops, and the stars are perfectly aligned: Nagy will come out in a formation consisting of eleven linemen, with defensive tackle Akiem Hicks at quarterback, dubbed the “Wildfat”. Trubisky’s love of titties is well-documented (link); this trick formation will have no shortage of them.
The Patriots are…the Patriots. They do Patriot stuff. They’ve always done an excellent job of beating teams who are offense-oriented and good at conventional football, and the Ravens. The Bears are not offense-oriented, they are certainly not going to play conventional football. Expect to see plenty of linemen in the backfield, Eddie Jackson on offense, and other plays that the Patriots tend to struggle against.
X-factor: Pretty simple. Can Chicago’s front seven get enough pressure on Brady to force him into bad throws? I think they can.
The game will be close, if only because the Bears are incapable of scoring enough points to pull away from anyone. But their defense will come out and smack the Patriots in the mouth in a manner they haven’t seen before. Don’t be surprised if Mack sends Brady into an early (or perhaps timely) retirement. Da Bears will be doing the Super Bowl Shuffle again this February. Book it.
Bears 17, Patriots 14
You can see my past playoff predictions here, although I lost access to that account. As always, thanks for bearing with me, and please follow me on Twitter. I love you all.