Fantasy Football Draft Guide for Lazy People

Zack King
Zack King
Aug 25, 2017 · 25 min read

Brought to you by The Weekly Tailgate.

As each year comes and goes, some things change and some stay the same. Since last August, the United States has elected a President that does this, beloved stars such as Carrie Fisher and George Michael have passed, and Fidget Spinners are now a thing. However, as has happened each fall for the last half-century, the NFL is ramping up for another exciting season. We have player holdouts, preseason injuries, and intriguing player rumors floating about.

Everyone has a life outside of their dedication to their inner football fan and I completely understand if you didn’t watch the 7th round of the NFL draft, realize that Tony Romo retired, or catch wind of LeVeon Bell’s latest shenanigans.

If you have no idea what I’m talking about, this article is for you! I’ve done my very best to highlight players whose stock has been most affected by the whirlwind of the offseason. Today, we focus on running backs and wide receivers; the Quarterback and Tight End positions weren’t heavily affected this offseason. Gronk is still the best Tight End, when healthy, and you can’t go wrong selecting Brady, Brees, or Rodgers as your QB1. Joe Flacco still sucks.

Below you will find an in-depth analysis of the 5 Running Backs and 5 Wide Receivers whose changed circumstances are most important for you to understand before draft day so that you can snatch up value and avoid bust candidates. This article is written with the assumption you’re in a 12-man half PPR league and uses exclusively ESPN ADP data.

Here are links to all highlighted players in case you don’t have time to slog through the entire post:

Running Back

  1. Marshawn Lynch (OAK)
  2. Eddie Lacy (SEA)
  3. LeGarrette Blount (PHI)
  4. Leonard Fournette (JAX)
  5. Christian McCaffrey (CAR)

Honorable Mentions: Mike Gillislee (NE), Adrian Peterson (NO), Jamaal Charles (DEN)

Wide Receiver

  1. Michael Thomas (NO)
  2. Brandin Cooks (NE)
  3. Alshon Jeffrey (PHI)
  4. Sammy Watkins (LAR)
  5. DeVante Parker (MIA)

Honorable Mentions: Martavis Bryant (PIT), Brandon Marshall (NYG), Jordan Matthews (BUF)

Running Back

1. Marshawn Lynch (OAK)

Beast Mode was drawn out of retirement by the opportunity to play for his hometown Oakland Raiders. Lynch quickly ascended to the top of the Raiders depth chart after signing a two-year deal worth 9 million with 2.35 million in guarantees. This generous contract highlights the faith of Raiders HC Jack Del Rio and OC Todd Downing in Lynch as a feature back. Offensive Line Coach Mike Tice has built arguably the best O-Line in football to pave the way for Beast Mode this season. Last year, the Raiders fearsome O-Line featured three Pro Bowlers (Osemele, Hudson, and Penn) and gave up a league low 18 sacks. If the privilege of running behind the Raiders line wasn’t enough to excite you, keep in mind that Lynch won’t see many defenders in the box. Defenses are well aware of QB Derek Carr’s habit of making them pay when trying to contain stud receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper with single coverage. The addition of newcomer TE Jared Cook from Green Bay will only inspire more fear of the Raiders vaunted passing attack.

If Marshawn were entering his age 26 season, I’d end here predicting an MVP caliber season from the man who did this. Unfortunately, Marshawn is 31 years old and coming off of a nearly two year layoff since he was injured during the 2015 campaign. Running backs tend to hit a wall around age 30 especially when subjected to heavy workloads. The argument can be made that Lynch has already hit said wall. In the 7 games Lynch played in 2015, he averaged 3.8 YPC which represented a decline of more than half a yard from his average as a Seahawk. He only scored 3 touchdowns in 2015 after posting 4 straight seasons of 11+ touchdowns. In Lynch’s absence, Thomas Rawls ran behind the same maligned Seahawks O-Line at a clip of over 5 YPC to conclude the 2015 season. Today, Lynch is being drafted as RB12 in the early 3rd round. To return value at his current ADP, Lynch would have to produce 200 fantasy points.

Lynch’s age and physical condition should limit him to no more than 15 carries per game, which at his career average 4.2 YPC would produce 1,000 rushing yards - assuming he plays all 16 games. Let’s add 30 catches for 200 receiving yards to Lynch’s hypothetical season — Beast Mode would then require 11 total touchdowns to reach 200 points. This 200-point season represents Lynch’s ceiling.

Whoever drafts Beast Mode receives no upside in return for the risk they take on by selecting a 31 year old back in round 3. I believe Lynch would present value in the 5th round as a low-end RB2, but you won’t be getting him there.

The Prediction: 12 games, 750 rushing yards, 25 receptions for 180 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns — 165.5 fantasy points (RB23)

2. Eddie Lacy (SEA)

“Fat” Eddie Lacy is the man apparently set to fill Lynch’s shoes in Seattle this season after Thomas Rawls struggled mightily with injuries and ineffectiveness in 2016.

Seattle, however, has the lowest graded and lowest paid O-Line in the league. To make matters worse, they lost their starting left tackle in Preseason Week 2. QB Russell Wilson has a couple of solid weapons in Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham but no one to strike fear into an opposing defense, unless Paul Richardson or Tyler Lockett takes a huge step forward. Lacy will be seeing the occasional stacked box as Carroll’s tendency to favor a run-heavy offense is well known to the rest of the league. While it seems a positive that Seattle is run-heavy, it appears highly unlikely that Lacy will tote the rock 20 times per game as the sole beneficiary. Seattle has one of the most crowded backfields in the NFL. The Seattle coaching staff still sees Rawls as part of its future, 2nd year back C.J. Prosise is set to see passing down work, last year’s 5th rounder Alex Collins remains on the roster, and 7th round rookie Chris Carson has been killing it this preseason.

Having tipped my cap to all of Lacy’s competition, I still believe the coaching staff wants Lacy to win the starting gig — Seattle handed him a 4.25 million dollar contract with weight incentives (all of which have been met by the 26 year old so far). Contrary to popular belief, Lacy is still a good player. The consensus reaction to Lacy’s injury-shortened 2016 campaign was he was horrible and visibly slowed by his extra weight. The stats vehemently disagree. Lacy rushed for a career best 5.1 yards per carry last year while on pace to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing for what would have been the 3rd time in his young career. The fat jokes and Lacy’s disappointing but fluky touchdown total (0) were behind the Lacy hate in 2016. Lacy’s ADP of 87 (RB30) is actually reasonably fair baking in the risk of re-injury and risk of a usurping backup while providing his owner with the upside that comes from a guy who averaged over 5 YPC becoming faster and nimbler.

To return RB30 value, Lacy would only need to produce about 130 fantasy points which he will comfortably manage as he fends off Carson, Collins, and Rawls for the lion’s share of the early down work, ceding only obvious passing downs to receiver turned tailback Prosise.

The Prediction: 14 games, 900 rushing yards, 20 receptions for 160 receiving yards, 9 total touchdowns — 170 fantasy points (RB20)

3. LeGarrette Blount (PHI)

Blount shocked the football world last year rushing for over 1,100 yards and 18 freaking touchdowns as a key cog in Bill Belichick’s Super Bowl-winning machine. After signing restricted free-agent Mike Gillislee away from Buffalo, signing free agent Rex Burkhead from Cincinnati, retaining shifty pass-catching extraordinaire Dion Lewis, and Super Bowl hero James White, Blount was deemed expendable and allowed to hit the open market where he found his second Pennsylvania team in the city of Brotherly Love.

Incumbent and oft-injured starting running back Ryan Mathews was released creating a need for Blount to assume the early down work while fellow undersized backs Wendell Smallwood (hehe), Darren Sproles, and 4th round rookie Donnel Pumphrey battle it out for the change of pace and third down roles. Reasons for optimism are a plenty running beyond simply the opportunity created by Mathews’ departure. The Eagles O-Line rivals that of the NFL’s best provided star tackles Lane Johnson and Jason Peters can manage to stay on the field. Quarterback Carson Wentz showed surprising poise a year ago for a rookie QB and can be expected to take a leap forward this year with the addition of new receiving weapons Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith.

On the flip side, the Eagle’s play calling doesn’t suggest a Blount-friendly offense. Despite sprouting from the run-happy Andy Reid coaching tree, HC Doug Pederson has proven he prefers the air attack. In their Preseason Week 2 game, Philly had 54 pass attempts to 18 rushes. Last year, Wentz set a rookie record for pass attempts (607). While the early down work is Blount’s for the taking, there might not be much there. Two other certainties work against Blount. He’s crossed the age 30 threshold after heavy workloads in New England and there’s no way in hell he’s going to score 18 touchdowns again. Blount was given 32 rush attempts inside of the 5-yard line last season, far more than any other player. The Eagles offense last year was often stagnant for weeks long stretches providing a stark contrast to the high-octane Brady led offense Blount enjoyed. Let’s also point out that last year aside, Blount has only played 16 games once (2013) in his 8 years in the league. Not to kick a dead horse, but it’s also worth mentioning that Blount is a putrid receiver. He’s had 10+ catches in a season only once.

Blount will have work, provided he stays healthy, but the amount and quality will pale in comparison to last season. At an ADP of 81 (RB27), you’re best off letting someone seduced by last season’s touchdown total make this selection.

The Prediction: 12 games, 739 rushing yards, 7 receptions for 60 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns — 125.4 fantasy points (RB33)

4. Leonard Fournette (JAX)

Leonard Fournette reminds me of another player recently selected among the top 10 in the NFL draft whose offense last year featured a rookie starting quarterback, a highly paid but underperforming wide receiver, and a team sporting an above average defense.

His name is… Todd Gurley.

After a stellar rookie campaign, Gurley was held back by Jeff Fisher’s cobweb stricken dusty old offensive scheme paired with lousy quarterbacks and blockers. I envision a similar fate for Mr. Fournette.

It’s not all doom and gloom in Jacksonville for Fournette. New (official) HC Doug Marrone was quoted recently that he likes to “run the ball every play.” Given the team’s quarterback will be some nauseating combination of Chad Henne, Blake Bortles, and 2016 6th rounder Brandon Allen, I have no reason to doubt Marrone’s honesty. Fournette is a generational talent; he broke almost every major rushing record at LSU needing only about two and a half seasons worth of playing time to do so. He won’t be challenged for carries in Jacksonville as Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon proved to be the epitome of incompetence last season. Fantasy investors have been entranced by Fournette’s superior combination of talent and imminent workload.

Last season, Fantasy Football Players made Todd Gurley a slam dunk first rounder for nearly the same reasons that they are swooning over Fournette. Gurley possessed the same pedigree and role as the Jags’ new back. However, Gurley was undone by a bad offensive line that consistently faced 7–8 man boxes which bottled him up. He was held to 3.2 YPC and only rattled off two runs longer than 20 yards the entire season. Opposing defenses have no reason to fear Bortles’ wet noodle of an arm and the offensive line was middling according to Pro Football Focus even before it lost LT Branden Albert to retirement. Making matters worse, the ankle problems that derailed Fournette’s final season at LSU are flaring up again. Fournette was held out of a Preseason Week 2 matchup against Tampa Bay due to what was listed as a left ankle injury, the very same injury that was described as recurring at LSU. Doug Marrone confirmed that the injury has been bothering him for some time stating its “something that’s been kind of growing.”

No one doubts the talent of Leonard Fournette but his health and supporting cast are, shall we say, less than ideal. I don’t think this guy suits up for more than 11 games as he’s plagued by ankle trouble throughout the season. He’ll cede carries in the name of his health while enjoying little room to run. Fournette’s ADP of 24 (RB10) is a gross overvaluation of him given the circumstances. Even if he suits up more than expected, fantasy owners should not expect any better than low to mid RB2 production although he’s being drafted as an RB1.

The Prediction: 11 games, 700 rushing yards, 15 receptions for 110 receiving yards, 6 total touchdowns — 124.5 fantasy points (RB34)

5. Christian McCaffrey (CAR)

The son of former Broncos receiver, Ed McCaffrey, Christian is viewed as the most versatile and complete weapon in the 2017 draft class. He was selected 8th overall by the running back-needy Carolina Panthers.

While a running back in principle, many Draftniks predicted McCaffrey’s ideal position might be as an NFL slot receiver. That’s not to discount his rushing ability but to highlight the route-running and ball skills McCaffrey possesses as a receiver. Teammate Luke Kuechly, arguably the top interior linebacker in the game, had this to say about covering McCaffrey in practice:

“He’s going to be a nightmare for us. It’ll be a good challenge for us. We’ll put Thomas (Davis) and Shaq (Thompson) on him and see what they can do.”

-The Charlotte Observer

McCaffrey wasted no time proving that he can fulfill his duties as a ball carrier in his first preseason action. He read the blocking perfectly and utilized his blazing speed to beat Tennessee Cornerback Brice McCain to the pylon for six.

With Jonathan Stewart as the incumbent starter at running back, it remains to be seen how exactly Carolina plans to make the most of its new toy. Carolina selected RB/WR Curtis Samuel (Ohio State) in the second round who could presumably be used in the slot receiver role McCaffrey is associated with. If Stewart unsurprisingly gets injured, it doesn’t necessarily imply that McCaffrey would see the lion’s share of the early down work. He just isn’t built for it at 6’0”, 197 pounds. At the NFL combine, McCaffrey managed a paltry six reps on the bench press further suggesting he lacks the strength to hold up as a high usage player. All this leaves McCaffrey’s primary role as a receiver out of the backfield. Unfortunately for him, Quarterback Cam Newton has miserable short accuracy and thus hardly targets running backs in the passing game. Last season, Cam threw to running backs on 13% of his attempts, good for 2nd fewest in the league (8%, Green Bay). McCaffrey is a curious fit in OC Mike Shula’s scheme but it stands to reason that he and his staff will be looking for ways to get him the ball.

The bottom line on the Panthers top rookie is that although he’ll be electric whenever he touches the ball, his workload is in serious question. Can Cam conduct an adequate short passing game? Given size concerns and Stewart’s presence, how many carries will McCaffrey get? His ADP sits at 37 (RB15) telling me that other drafters concur with my opinion. Despite the unlikelihood that McCaffrey reaches 1,000 yards rushing or 80 receptions, the combination of moderate rushing and receiving work will give McCaffrey a low-end RB2 floor and a low-end RB1 ceiling. He’s a value pick in the fourth round of your draft.

The Prediction: 15 games, 675 rushing yards, 53 receptions for 472 receiving yards, 6 total touchdowns — 177.2 fantasy points (RB17)

Honorable Mentions:

Mike Gillislee (NE)

Gillislee remains in the AFC East as he joins the defending champions. Earlier in the offseason, he was widely assumed to take on the LeGarrette Blount role as the early down back and goal line hammer.

Since then, he’s injured his hamstring and has hardly practiced with the team leaving fellow newcomer Rex Burkhead the favorite for this backfield’s most lucrative role.

Gillislee’s current ADP of 77 (RB26) is too rich for me for any New England back. The trio of Burkhead, White, and Lewis will split receiving down work with all four backs vying for carries depending on situation and opponent. Good luck guessing Belichick’s game plans.

The Prediction: 14 games, 560 rushing yards, 17 receptions for 143 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns — 120.8 fantasy points (RB36)

Adrian Peterson (NO)

The Cyborg, ahem, former career Minnesota Viking has joined the most prolific offense of the last half-decade. If not for Mark Ingram’s lingering form atop the depth chart, all our mouths would water over the possibility of an angry, disrespected Adrian Peterson gunning for his fourth NFL rushing title. The most likely division of labor is Ingram and Peterson sharing early down work while 3rd round selection Alvin Kamara mans the passing downs. That’s not to say that Peterson won’t be active in the passing game; Drew Brees has been long known to fetishize tight ends and running backs.

At an ADP of 68 (RB25), Peterson is being significantly over-drafted. If you’re able to look beyond the name and see him for what he is, a glorified handcuff that will garner a few carries, you’d be wise to wait a couple rounds and select Tevin Coleman (ADP 93, RB33) who has a hell of a lot more upside in the event that Devonta Freeman goes down.

The Prediction: 16 games, 540 rushing yards, 25 receptions for 198 receiving yards, 6 total touchdowns — 122.3 (RB34)

Jamaal Charles (DEN)

Charles joins his second NFL team in the Mile High City after suffering multiple torn ACLs with the division rival Chiefs. However, there is no guarantee he even makes the roster. His first preseason action will come against the Packers on Saturday, the 26th, when he will have to prove his worth; new Head Coach Vance Joseph has already confirmed Charles won’t play in the preseason finale.

C.J. Anderson is the incumbent starter as disappointing sophomore Devontae Booker will miss the first part of the season following wrist surgery. Charles could slide into a change of pace role along with third down duties if he can assuage fears that injuries have sapped his skills.

Being drafted at an ADP of 141 (RB51), Charles would need only 84 fantasy points to return value, but getting cut would not be helpful. There are higher upside players you should target in round 11.

The Prediction: 10 games, 300 rushing yards, 30 receptions for 227 receiving yards, 3 total touchdowns — 88.7 fantasy points (RB48)

Wide Receiver

1. Michael Thomas (NO)

Unlike the other players highlighted by this article, 2nd year receiver Michael Thomas has not found himself in a new home this season, simply a better situation. His ADP of 16 (WR7) may come as a shock to some considering he wasn’t the most notorious wideout on his own team last year; that honor falls to the number two wide receiver on this list, Brandin Cooks (NE). Amidst the headlines surrounding Cooks’ frustrations regarding his role in the offense, one could be forgiven for failing to recognize the staggering numbers Michael Thomas produced in his rookie season: a 92–1,137–9 line on 121 targets.

Can Michael Thomas repeat his sensational rookie season?

Absolutely, in fact he will probably exceed those numbers. Brandin Cooks’ departure leaves 117 vacated targets, meanwhile former Panther Ted Ginn was the only noteworthy receiving option added during the offseason and is not deserving of even half Cooks’ vacated targets. Thomas is the logical major beneficiary. Despite Brees’ aforementioned running back and tight end fetish, he’s demonstrated loyalty to a prototypical WR1 before.

Remember Marques Colston?

He’s a slower, less sure-handed, version of Michael Thomas. In one of Colston’s rare 16-game seasons with Brees at the helm, Colston attracted a whopping 144 targets — a solid baseline for Thomas’ 2017 projection. Furthermore, Thomas will benefit from the Saints’ lack of another bona fide redzone threat. Brandon Coleman? Coby Fleener? Please.

The opposing camp points out that Michael Thomas will now be the Saints’ undisputed number one target, thus drawing the attention of the opposition’s top corner. Luckily for Thomas, it won’t matter. Thomas will face corners that shadow in only seven games this season, which sounds worse than it is — these particular corners don’t always shadow and are often shamed for it by the media (Norman, Trufant twice, Trumaine Johnson, Stephon Gilmore/Malcolm Butler, Darius Slay, Xavier Rhodes).

In the middle of the second round, Thomas presents insane value, especially with many consensus first rounders falling out of favor with the fantasy community (Bell — holdout, Beckham — ankle and contract problems, Elliot — suspension, Murray — hamstring, McCoy — trade rumors). Anyone who finds his or herself selecting near the 1–2 turn should gleefully add Thomas to their squad.

The Prediction: 101 receptions for 1,263 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns — 236.8 fantasy points (WR5)

2. Brandin Cooks (NE)

For as bullish as I am on Michael Thomas, I’m even more bearish on his former teammate, Brandin Cooks. Don’t get me wrong, I believe Brandin Cooks will put up numbers in Josh McDaniels’ offense. However, there’s an infinitesimal probability Cooks will return value at his ADP of 28 (WR12).

There are three major forces working against a WR1 campaign for Cooks.

  1. Brady is not an upgrade over Brees
  2. Presence of many other quality receivers
  3. Indoor/Outdoor splits

Stop whining, Patriots fans.

I know the GOAT edition of Madden just came out featuring Brady as its cover boy. An important lesson for all fantasy players to understand is that NFL greatness and fantasy greatness are, although connected, not the same thing. Brady may be the greatest football player to ever live, but in terms of fantasy production, he isn’t superior to Drew Brees. Over the past five years, Brady has averaged roughly 600 pass attempts per season; Brees has averaged over 650 while sharing similar efficiency. This leads to more volume for Brees’ receivers.

To make matters worse for Cooks, the diminished overall target volume in New England will be sliced up like Pizza Hut Big Flavor Dippers. New England sports three other established wideouts in Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Chris Hogan alongside 2nd year man Malcolm Mitchell, not to mention Brady’s favorite target and Madden 17 Cover, cruising TE Rob Gronkowski, and the trio of receiving backs (White, Lewis, and Burkhead). Are you going to try to convince me straight faced that Cooks is going to see more targets than he did in New Orleans? I bet Cooks ironically becomes more irate during the 2017 season than last year over his withering target share.

Brandin Cooks’ struggles outdoors are well documented, and unfortunately for the 23 year old, he will be playing outside far more often in his new home. Rather than playing 9+ games per season inside of a dome (8 home games, at Atlanta), Cooks will play one measly indoor contest this season (9/17 @ NO, I’ll be playing him in DFS for the dome and revenge synergy!). Over the last two seasons, Cooks has averaged 12 fewer yards per game outside and has scored only 4 touchdowns — as opposed to 13 scores in a dome — over the same timeframe.

Thanks to a variety of factors, there is but a fleeting chance that Brandin Cooks will enter the WR1 conversation this season despite being drafted as one. Unless Cooks develops instant chemistry with Brady, gets over his fear of the great outdoors, and is aided by injuries to the Pats’ receiving corps, he will surely disappoint owners selecting him in the early 3rd round.

The Prediction: 70 receptions for 1,050 yards and 7 touchdowns — 182 fantasy points (WR17)

EDIT 8/26/17:

In light of Patriots WR Julian Edelman’s apparent ACL tear suffered against the Lions in Preseason Week 3, I will try to get out in front of the Cooks bandwagon that will be loading up by telling you the real fantasy implications. Look for an article coming out shortly titled “Fantasy Implications of Julian Edelman’s Torn ACL.”

The summary as it pertains to Cooks:

Cooks will lose efficiency while gaining a meager number of targets resulting in a similar, but slightly better projection. He will become a high-end WR2 meaning his WR12 ADP is less egregious.

Bottom Line: Do not take Cooks in your drafts unless he falls to at least the end of the 3rd round.

3. Alshon Jeffrey (PHI)

What if I told you that Alshon Jeffrey had 106 receptions for 1,628 receiving yards and 6 receiving touchdowns last year? If you believed me, I’d say you came out of a time capsule from 2014, the last season Jeffrey approached those heights. The stat line I provided represents Jeffrey’s total production over his last two injury-marred campaigns.

Jeffrey’s talent is undeniable; beholden to the passes of erratic quarterbacks Jay Cutler (MIA) and Josh McCown (NYJ), Alshon averaged 87 catches for 1,277 yards and 8.5 touchdowns during 2013–2014 as a Chicago Bear. There’s no reason to believe Jeffrey’s abilities have deteriorated as he still stands a menacing 6’3” and 230 pounds of muscle as he enters his age 27 season. In his first year donning Eagles attire, he’ll play alongside budding superstar Quarterback Carson Wentz as the young signal caller looks to take a step forward outfitted with flashy new weapons. Jeffrey shouldn’t find any shortage of targets in his new home. While coach Doug Pederson claims intent to run a balanced offense, actions speak louder than words. See Blount, LeGarrette above. Last year Jordan Matthews (BUF), the now departed top pass catcher in Pederson’s offense, was targeted 117 times over only 13 starts. The far superior talent of the two, Jeffrey is expectant of an elite target share rivaling Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown if he suits up for all 16 games.

Therein lies the rub, if only Jeffrey could stay healthy. Alshon has been absent 11 games over the course of the past two seasons along with countless missed practices. There’s no indication that his health has taken a turn for the better in Philadelphia, not that he cares. Hopefully Jeffrey’s hamstring troubles from Chicago are behind him as he’s found himself saddled with a bum shoulder that’s preventing him from practicing. The Eagles are not excited that Jeffrey’s health has caused him to forgo his best opportunities to build chemistry with Wentz in camp and the preseason.

Currently selected at an ADP of 37 (WR16), Jeffrey needs to play 13 games at nearly 100% to return value. I’ll give him 11. Let someone else draft the uber-talented high-end WR3 at WR2 pricing.

The Prediction: 11 games, 65 receptions for 943 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns — 162.8 fantasy points (WR26)

4. Sammy Watkins (LAR)

Look what we have here — another wildly talented receiver on a new team that can’t seem to stay healthy.

Amidst the TankGate that the Bills have found themselves entrenched in, they have let last year’s top two receivers leave the building (Robert Woods, also to the LA Rams) as well as Cornerback Ronald Darby (PHI) and Running Back Mike Gillislee (NE) among others while replacing them with the likes of disappointments CB E.J. Gaines and WR Jordan Matthews.

Well, what does this say about Watkins? Why should fantasy players care about the Bills ridding themselves of a veteran receiver?

I’ll give you a hint.

Most teams, rebuilding or not, don’t release promising young talent. Sammy Watkins is entering his age 24 season already possessing a 1,000 yard 9 touchdown campaign under his belt. The Bills decision to move on from the former 4th overall draft pick is curious, especially considering the exorbitant price they paid to acquire him and that he could have been retained on a rookie contract for two more years.

If we deep dive into Buffalo’s relationship with Watkins, the only plausible explanation for the Watkins trade is the team’s lack of confidence in the receiver’s metallic left foot.

And perhaps his health in general.

Watkins endured two surgeries on his broken, then fractured, foot in the span of nine months during 2015–2016. Furthermore, Watkins underwent offseason hip surgery after his rookie season and has been hindered by glute, hamstring, and calf ailments over his three NFL seasons. Like Jeffrey, Watkins has been held out of 11 games over the last two years, missing 8 games on the short term IR last season because of his foot. The silver lining is that Watkins may be in the beginning stages of putting his injury demons to rest — he has been consistently participating in Rams practices and logged preseason action in both weeks 1 and 2 prompting GM Les Snead to declare his intention to lock up Watkins long-term. That’s a lot more than Eagles de facto GM Howie Roseman can say about Alshon Jeffrey.

Provided Watkins can stay on the field for the better part of 2017, there are reasons for optimism. A revamped offense by the youngest head coach in NFL history, Sean McVay, led by 2016 first overall pick Jared Goff is intriguing for Watkins’ prospects. Todd Gurley is going to get the ball as often as ever, but field stretching deep shots to Watkins will be imperative to keeping opposing defenses honest. Watkins will be far and away the primary target in the passing game whenever he steps foot on the field. Robert Woods demonstrated during his time in Buffalo alongside Watkins that he is neither special nor a threat to cut into Watkins’ target share. Rookie slot receiver Cooper Kupp has been blowing up in preseason but will require more time to adjust to the complex coverages that he’ll see in the regular season. Positive game scripts are in store for the Rams passing attack this year as their defense will feel the effects of Aaron Donald’s contract holdout, further boosting Watkins’ targets.

At and ADP of 67 (WR29), Watkins has sneaky mid to high end WR2 upside if you can talk yourself into believing that he’ll stay (relatively) healthy. His 2015 total of 13 games is an honest projection for this season making him a slight value in the mid 6th round.

The Prediction: 13 games, 57 receptions for 915 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns — 154 fantasy points (WR33)

5. DeVante Parker (MIA)

Parker is our second receiver that hasn’t changed teams, yet has found his way into a more favorable situation that we, as astute fantasy players, can’t afford to ignore.

Reports out of Dolphins training camp about Parker have been absolutely radiant; although we should always take team-speak with a pinch of salt. The word is that after battling nagging foot, back, and hamstring problems over his first two seasons, the former 14th overall pick in 2015 has a renewed work ethic and overhauled diet aiding him in reaching his immense potential. Meanwhile, in the wake of Quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s season ending knee injury, Miami has signed retired quarterback-almost-turned-grumpy-broadcaster Jay Cutler. While Cutler doesn’t represent much of an upgrade from Tannehill in terms of standalone fantasy production, his love of size/speed freaks like Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall bodes well for the 6’3” Parker, who ran a blazing 4.45 40 yard dash at the combine. Cutler had high praise for Parker stating

“I think he’s kind of a faster Alshon [Jeffery]. He’s got a lot of range, back shoulder and over the top. He’s got great hands. Then, he can burn you up if you’re flat-footed.”

Cutler went on to target Parker four times in their first preseason action together amidst rumors that the Dolphins may opt to move on from top target Jarvis Landry.

This being the second straight year DeVante Parker has been the subject of substantial preseason breakout hype, it’s not unfair to temper expectations somewhat until Parker walks the walk.

Over his young career thus far, Parker’s numbers have been underwhelming to say the least. He’s compiled 82 receptions for 1,238 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns over two seasons. Parker’s averaged a dismal 68.5 targets per season and simply requires more work to reach his lofty potential.

Parker enthusiasts point at the large discrepancies between his year 1 and year 2 major statistics. His yardage jumped from 494 to 744, receptions from 26 to 56, and his catch rate increased by a whopping 12.4%. The case for Parker rests on his ability to maintain his health and build chemistry with Cutler to increase his target share in year 3, the traditional breakout season for wide receivers. The necessary pieces are in place for DeVante Parker to make another significant leap in 2017. Drafters at ESPN have fallen fast asleep at the wheel selecting Parker at a ludicrous ADP of 94 (WR37). Here’s to hoping they don’t wake up anytime soon. Parker will be featured on all of my teams in 2017 - I won’t be waiting until the freaking 7th round to draft him.

The Prediction: 15 games, 78 receptions for 1,131 yards and 8 touchdowns — 200.1 fantasy points (WR11)

Honorable Mentions:

Martavis Bryant (PIT)

Bryant returns to the Steel City after a 1-year suspension spent in the fog of marijuana. He is undoubtedly an explosive weapon that Pittsburgh is excited to have back in its arsenal ahead of what could be Big Ben’s last season.

However, Bryant’s off field woes should have fantasy owners squirming in their seats.

One failed/missed drug test and Martavis will hang up his cleats for the year, and probably for good. Furthermore, he and Roethlisberger’s chemistry has been damaged by a rift between colleagues stemming from Bryant’s questionable integrity. During an interview on the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Channel, Steelers GM Kevin Colbert plainly stated the organization is well aware Bryant could slip-up in his sobriety and it would come as a shock to no one. Not encouraging words. Colbert backed up his statements by selecting the 6’2” Martavis Bryant insurance policy Juju Smith-Schuster in the second round of this year’s draft.

I can definitely use Bryant in DFS any week he’s active, especially in a GPP setting, but attaching my season-long hopes, and a probable 6th round draft pick (ADP 71, WR30), to a guy this volatile is a terrible idea.

The Prediction: Unpredictable number of games, 4 receptions for 64 receiving yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game — 12.6 fantasy points per game (weekly high-end WR2)

Brandon Marshall (NYG)

Every time Brandon Marshall joins a new team, he absolutely blows up in his first season. He’s averaged a 104–1,341–9 line (which includes a less impressive 86-1,014-3 in his first Miami season) the year after switching teams.

Please don’t be fooled by this correlation which I’m sure many of you have seen before — trends like these are the material bad analysts point to when making projections.

There’s no relation between the circumstances of playing inaugural seasons with new teams aside from Marshall’s moving dates. Mere coincidence is the best explanation for this oddity, and it will be proven this season when Marshall’s stats fall off further in his age 33 season.

Marshall ceased to be an elite option last year. He was coming off arguably the best season in his prolific career (a 109–1502–14 line), but despite playing 15 games in 2016, his receiving numbers were cut in half while his touchdown total dwindled to three. Poor quarterbacking isn’t the root cause of Marshall’s decline; Ryan Fitzpatrick played the majority of both seasons.

Marshall’s body has begun to betray him as many big-bodied veteran receivers have already experienced.

The best comparable for Marshall is Andre Johnson. Johnson’s age 32 season saw him post a 109–1407–5 line before beginning his fall off the proverbial cliff. His last season in Houston, his age 33 season, resulted in an uncharacteristic 85–936–3 line — reminiscent of Marshall’s 2016 down season with the Jets. When Andre Johnson left the Texans to join Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck led aerial attack in his age 34 season, draft analysts completely lost their shit with excitement.

We’re seeing the same thing happen today with regards to Marshall’s potential in Ben McAdoo’s system. Analysts are predicting that Eli and Marshall will lift each other to vintage performances gaining help from Beckham who will draw the top defensive backs from Marshall’s side of the field.

Don’t buy into the hype, this isn’t the elite version of Brandon Marshall you’ve come to know. At an ADP of 74 (WR32) you could have Pierre Garcon (SF), Willie Snead (NO), or DeSean Jackson (TB) instead.

The Prediction: 15 games, 54 receptions for 648 yards and 5 touchdowns — 121.8 fantasy points (WR53)

Jordan Matthews (BUF)

Matthews was unceremoniously traded to Buffalo earlier this month as part of a (effectively 3-way) trade involving Sammy Watkins’ move out to LA. After being showered with triple digit targets every year the former Eagle has yet to produce a 1,000 yard season. Matthews was particularly ineffective last year converting 117 targets into a meager 73–804–3 line in a high volume Doug Pederson passing offense. No one can say for sure what the offense will look like in Buffalo controlled by their new coaching staff, but considering OC Rick Dennison held the same position in Denver the past two seasons, I’ll bet good money this will be a run-heavy system. While Matthews is the most experienced player in the Bills wide receiver room following Anquan Boldin’s surprise retirement, the targets won’t be there for him as RB LeSean McCoy will once again be the focal point of the offense. Watkins, a real difference maker at receiver, only garnered 128 targets in his lone full season on the team for whatever that’s worth.

Matthews is being drafted appropriately at an ADP of 128 (WR48). Due to his status as the team’s top target, Matthews will have a stable floor making him a respectable WR4, but his offense and questionable skill set severely limit his upside. He won’t be described as a sexy pick by anyone.

The Prediction: 16 games, 68 receptions for 816 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns — 145.6 fantasy points (WR43)

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Zack King

Written by

Zack King

A Software Analyst by trade, I’m an avid tennis player and coach with much more than a passing interest in Fantasy Football

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