Fantasy Implications of Julian Edelman’s Torn ACL

Zack King
Zack King
Aug 27, 2017 · 5 min read
-Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Brought to you by The Weekly Tailgate.

The Patriots’ 2015 season through nine weeks was eerily reminiscent of their infamous 2007 campaign. Brady, on pace to rival the impossible statistical heights of that year, looked immortal in his age 38 season, throwing 24 touchdowns to only three interceptions while averaging 338 passing yards per game. The Super Bowl Favorites boasted two seemingly unstoppable receiving weapons in Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski who were on pace for 1,300 and 1,400 receiving yards respectively and nearly 200 combined receptions.

Then, disaster struck in week 9 on the road facing the Giants. While the Patriots exacted some semblance of revenge for their 2007, 2011 Super Bowl defeats, Julian Edelman was lost for the season with a broken foot. The walls began to crumble around the Patriots’ aura of invincibility. In their first full game without Edelman, the Patriots produced their lowest point total of the season (by a full touchdown) squeaking by a pedestrian Bills squad at home 20–13.

The following week, the 1972 Dolphins customarily sipped Champagne owing to the Patriots’ first loss at the hands of Denver. New England limped to an uncharacteristic 2–4 record in their final six games, then lost a 20–18 thriller to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Broncos in the AFC title game. In New England’s second meeting with Denver, the Edelman-less offense was an undisputed dumpster fire. Brady’s statistics were downright appalling until he found Gronkowski near the end of the fourth quarter for his only touchdown, but it was too little to late.

The stark contrast of the New England attack with and without slot extraordinaire Julian Edelman cannot be ignored when projecting the Patriots 2017 passing output. Examination of the performances of individual Patriots’ skill players during 2015 paints a clear picture, foreshadowing the season to come.

Fantasy players feeling schadenfreude over Edelman’s misfortune while rocketing Brady’s remaining weapons up their draft boards need to return to reality.

Believing Edelman’s 159 targets from 2016 will be divvied up equitably among the Patriots’ pass catching corps to the benefit of all is seductive, but dangerous.

And I have hard stats to prove it.

There is a major fault in the preceding logic — Brady’s overall passing volume and efficiency drop significantly without Edelman in the lineup.

Tom Brady’s 2015 splits don’t hint, but rather scream in terror, that the Patriots’ passing game takes a violent nosedive without its trusty, diminutive security blanket.

Tom Brady’s 2015 splits with and without Edelman

My, oh my.

Where the hell do I even start? Every statistic is significantly worse sans Edelman save times sacked remaining effectively constant. For perspective, Brady was on pace for a monster 5,410 passing yard (career high, 3rd all time) 43 touchdown season against a hilarious 5 interceptions. His completion percentage flirted with the NFL season record (71.2% at the time, Brees 2011). Following the Edelman injury, Brady’s prorated statistics would have seen him post a forgettable 3,947 yard 27 touchdown campaign — slightly worse than Andy Dalton’s 2015 prorated (missed three games to thumb injury) numbers.

Notice from the table above that both Brady’s volume and efficiency decreased dramatically post week 9. This spells abject disaster for his remaining receiving weapons. The difference between throwing 41 and 36 times per game nets the receiving corps 80 lost targets over a 16 game season; the difference between 69% and 61% completion percentage and the drop in targets results in Brady’s pass catchers losing out on exactly 100 receptions.

Well, there goes 102% of Edelman’s production from last year (98 catches).

Let’s see how the supposed beneficiaries of Edelman’s 2015 injury, Gronk and Amendola, made out in his absence.

Danny Amendola’s 2015 splits with and without Edelman
Rob Gronkowski’s 2015 splits with and without Edelman

Welp.

Amendola saw a modest uptick in targets but a devastating drop in efficiency leading to only an Amendola-sized increase in yards and receptions. When the 30 year old stepped into the role vacated by Edelman, his incompetence as a featured weapon was on full display as his catch rate and yards per target plummeted near terminal velocity.

The story of one Rob Gronkowski was far more grim — not one receiving statistic was saved from the sinking ship of the Patriots offense. He was on pace for a historic TE season — an 87–1,432–14 line. The yardage would have topped the all-time list (1,327 — himself in 2011) and touchdowns would have been close behind (17 — also himself in 2011). His projected 16 game line after Edelman’s injury was an un-Gronk-like 61–987–8 — an overall production decline of over 30% — after everyone with a pulse predicted an increase in targets.

Disclaimer: Gronk suffered a Grade 1 Knee Strain in week 12 against the Broncos, however, he didn’t exactly set the world on fire the previous week in his first full game without Edelman; 2 receptions for 37 yards was all he could muster at near 100% health with no real competition for targets.

The only real source of optimism for New England in 2017 came from New Orleans this offseason in return for their 2017 first round selection. Analysts say “it’ll be fine, Brandin Cooks has played the slot before.”

Um, ok.

Just because a player can stand in the same spot on the field as another doesn’t mean they are a viable replacement.

Edelman’s role has been that of the quintessential possession receiver, running predominantly short routes designed to keep the chains moving. Brandin Cooks has not been previously tasked with those responsibilities. During his three seasons with Brees, he was used as a lower-volume big play receiver, a more versatile DeSean Jackson if you will. This is evidenced by his 15.0 yards per reception in 2016 compared to the 10–11 AVGs Edelman routinely posts; there is also the discrepancy in volume — Cooks is a 75–80 catch guy while Edelman is more of a 95–105 reception player.

The harsh reality is the Patriots need Brandin Cooks’ talent to keep the offense afloat in 2017. Whether he does his best Edelman impression (which has to be better than Amendola’s in 2015), or is used in accordance with his natural abilities, his presence must be enough to deflect defenders from Gronkowski and New England’s ancillary receivers. If not Cooks, then someone has to be the possession guy on crucial third downs — it could Super Bowl Hero James White, newcomer Rex Burkhead, 2016 acquisition Chris Hogan, or a player on only Belichick’s radar.

If the gaping hole left by Edelman’s injury is not filled, it will spell fantasy doom for the entirety of New England’s offense in 2017.

The crowd was right to move all Patriots on their draft boards… but they were moved the wrong direction.

Proceed with caution.

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Zack King

Written by

Zack King

A Software Analyst by trade, I’m an avid tennis player and coach with much more than a passing interest in Fantasy Football

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