Blessings in Disguise: the constraints that have come to China “too soon”

Maybe it’s “what doesn't kill you make you stronger.” Maybe it’s “early adversities in life make one mature faster.” I am grateful to see China encountering “constraints” in many fronts, as they are only blessings in disguise. Below are some examples.

Chinese society is getting old before it has gotten rich.

Largely due to its one-child policy, Chinese society is aging very rapidly, and will approach the ratio of retirees to workforce in that of developed countries, without the benefit of robust social welfare system. By 2050, people over 60 will make up nearly 40% of the population, up from 15% today.

Silver lining: China will have to figure out an alternative narrative than to treat the elderly as a liability, which stem from the view that humans are factors of production, to be used and disposed of.

The environment in China is getting unbearably bad before the country is fully industrialized.

Air, water, soil, food. Everywhere you look, the quality and safety of the basic elements of life — and the natural environment that supports it — is approaching a red line. The country is still early in its industrial development, but the carrying capacity of the ecosystem has already been reached.

Silver lining: China does not have the “luxury” of the early industrialized countries to exploit colonies for resources, and dump wastes into the global commons. In fact, China has already gone too far in repeating the mistakes of the Western countries in “pollute first, clean up later.” But now, when the air quality is so bad that people won’t let it get any worse, the country has to lead the way to reshape the economic engine, or to question the purpose of economic growth.

Chinese economy has slowed before it has gotten strong.

In the latest quarter, India has surpassed China in GDP growth rate. China’s per capita income is still behind Iraq, and a lot less than Mexico. There’s no chance for China to enjoy the position of a global hegemon, or a G2 world of US and China.

Silver lining: dominance breeds hubris, leads to transgression, and precipitates downfall. I hope China won’t be given the room to develop any sense of dominance, but will instead develop the wisdom to be an equal player among many, in a world where perpetual growth is not a collective illusion.

China’s geopolitical context (neighborhood) has gotten complex before China has fully grown its muscle.

China does not have the luxury enjoyed by the US, with two oceans on both sides, and two friendly neighbors to the North and South. China has border disputes with most of its neighbors, and lives in a complex and loaded geopolitical environment.

Silver lining: the blessing here is that China will have to learn to be a good neighbor, and use methods other than bully to meet its needs. Thank goodness.

Chinese people’s hearts have gotten empty before their pockets have gotten full.

Signs are emerging that we might be witnessing the prelude to a spiritual renaissance in China. People are increasingly seeking ultimate salvation, as they see that the American Dream does not bring happiness, and the Chinese social contract (obey the Party and make money) is wearing off its magic.

Silver lining: just as everything in modern Chinese history is on 5x speed, I believe that the collective consciousness in China will also awaken from the materialist, consumerist dream, sooner rather than later. That will be good news for all.