My key point in this blog post is that exchange volume doesn’t represent true market based Bitcoin demand and supply. Traders are technically trading on only a portion of the deals being transacted. Also, a lot of trading on the exchange market is back and forth arbitrage trading — not true demand (for e.g. buy and hold), so trade volumes are heavily inflated. For example, I could take $10,000 and trade (buy & sell) that volume at least 5 times per day using a bot and generate over $1m in exchange volume during the course of the month. This means nothing, but it inflates the volumes we see on exchanges. Exchange to Exchange price arbitrage also makes up a large portion of the volume.
So I went to my first Monero meetup in NY too during Consensus. I was thoroughly impressed. All the drama aside, they have some really smart people working on their project. As Brad Chun pointed out to me: “There might be less people at Monero meetups, but the people that are there are way more intelligent than in any other type of crypto meetup.” After attending it, I agree. For me it’s definitely a long term hodl now.