Probability of Eating a Turkey with ISIS

It’s that time of the year, when everything around us turns warm and cozy. From the cookie boxes in Walmart, to the houses down the streets, everything begins to look like a wrapped gift and makes you feel like cuddling away in a nook near the fire; may be with a cup of hot chocolate with marshmallows. Yes, it’s the holiday season.

And then there are the traditions. If the bird remains to be the undeniable centerpiece at the table for your family, you have probably started to think about the perfect Thanksgiving turkey recipe by now. “Should I do my pecan stuffed version that I just read on the Internet, or would my usual spatchcocked roast turkey do?”

As you will beautifully carve that golden Turkey, and savor it, you would start thinking about those “Christmas boxes” from the attic, packed to the brim with the garland, tinsel, and Christmas lights.

Holiday season is a gift. And the media is ruining it for us.

While you may only want to think about your favorite Christmas movies, the media is constantly filling you in with infinite announcements of ISIS threats and their pernicious plans to attack the United States and France and everywhere else in the world. A recent poll by PEW research found that two third of Americans believe ISIS is a major threat.

While, I have no intentions to counter the “infinite” knowledge of folks taking care of security matters, as a data scientist, I can only try to make your life a wee bit better.

I do not like to believe “terrorism” is the most likely cause of death and it is the most dangerous threat to 1.7 million Americans who fly every day. What are the chances of a terrorist blowing up one of the 3,600 planes in American Sky at any given point in time?

With the emotionless and analytical brain that I have, I wanted to put things in perspective.

Statistically speaking, here are few odds of dying with the causes:

-> Drowning in a bathtub: 1 in 685,000
-> Fatally slipping during a shower: 1 in 812,232
-> Being struck by lightning: 1 in 576,000
-> Being murdered: 1 in 18,000
-> Dying from any kind of injury: 1 in 1,820
-> Dying from intentional self-harm: 1 in 9,380
-> Dying from assault: 1 in 16,421
-> Dying in a car accident: 1 in 18,585
-> Dying from any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666
-> Dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065
-> Dying from exposure to smoke, fire, and flames: 1 in 81,524
-> Dying from forces of nature (earthquake, flood): 1 in 225,107
-> Dying from choking on food: 1 in 370,035
-> Dying in a fireworks accident: 1 in 1,000,000
-> Dying from a dog bite: 1 in 700,000
-> Dying from falling off a ladder: 1 in 2,300,000
-> Dying form unintentional alcohol poisoning: 1 in 820,217
-> Dying from heart disease: 1 in 5
-> Dying from a cancer: 1 in 7
-> Dying from a stroke: 1 in 23
-> Dying from a Storm: 1 in 2,271,454
-> Dying from a Bee Sting: 1 in 25,364,571
-> Dying from an Asteroid Impact: 1 in 74,817,414
-> Dying by a firearm: 1 in 24,974
-> Dying from a post-surgery complications: 1 in 117,519
-> Dying from Cycling: 1 in 340,845
-> Dying from electrocution: 1 in 5,000
-> Dying due to a falling coconut: 1 in 250,000,000
-> Dying due to a shark attack: 1 in 300,000,000
-> Dying of a snake bite: 1 in 3,500,000
-> Dying due to food poisoning: 1 in 3,000,000
-> Dying in an accident at work: 1 in 43,500
-> Dying in a road accident: 1 in 8,000

Now, the odds of dying in a terrorist attack on board is 1 in 25,000,000 (25 million) and the overall average of dying in any kind of terrorist attack worldwide is 1 in 9,300,000 (9.3 million).

If not convinced, here is another interesting set of chances:

Odds of being an astronaut: 1 in 13,200,000
Odds of winning an Olympic gold medal: 1 in 662,000
Odds of becoming the president: 1 in 10,000,000
Odds of sighting a UFO today: 1 in 3,000,000
Odds of dating a supermodel: 1 in 88,000 (Kim Kardashian, anyone?)

So, you have twice the chances of becoming an astronaut than flying in a plane doomed to crash due to a terrorist plot. Moreover, the odds of you becoming a president are twice as that of dying in a terrorist attack (isn’t that ironic?). Need some more perspective? Well, you are three times more likely to sight a UFO today, 14 times more likely to win a gold medal, and the chances of you dating Kim Kardashian are 106 times than of you dying in a terrorist attack!

If you, like any logical person, believe that you will never date Kim, It’s time to wake up and enjoy the holidays. Guilt-free.

I love you Santa, I believe you exist, so does unicorns and mermaids.

I tweet @ZeeshanUsmani