The Canadian Context

Jacob Maller

A Brief Overview of the Historical Relationship

Canada and China have both endured a long history of mutual understanding and common confusion. In 1970 Canada official reaches out to China and establishes diplomatic relations with each other. A few year later in 1973 Pierre Trudeau is the first prime minister to visit the country. In 1984 Mr. Zhao repays the visit and is the first communist leader to visit Canada. In the same year as relationships strengthens, Canada creates the Asia Pacific Foundation which is a non for-profit organization focused on improving relations between China and Canada. As a result of this foundation, trade exchanges between the two countries reaches $3.7 billion in 1992.

Since the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989 tensions begin to tighten between the two countries as word of this horrific incident spreads to the rest of the globe. The prime minister, Mr. Chretien, feels the need to respond and visits China accompanied by premiers and other leaders to condemn China on its activity of stifling human rights and religious beliefs while striving to maintain its trade agreements.

Jumping to 2007 Canadian exports into China total $9.5 billion and the country imports $38.3 billion. In 2008 relations returned shaky once again when Canada threatens to take China to the WTO for refusing to negotiate tourism trade deals that is has similarly done so with over 100 other countries. During the Beijing Olympics Mr. Harper refuses to attend the opening ceremonies, which is interpreted as an insult (Mahoney & Lilwall, 2009).

Diplomatic Relations and the Tainanmen Massacre

Since the Tiananmen Square Massacre, Canada has noticed an issue with the protection of human rights in China. In 1989 thousands of students gathered in protest calling on the government to advocate free speech, democracy and free press in China. On May 20 the Chinese government declared martial law and 250,000 military troops entered to control the protests. Because the military presence didn’t seems to control the situation Chinese authorities decided to increase their level of aggression and began to open fire on protesters. Many retaliated and tried stoning Chinese troops and burning armed vehicles. Thousands of protesters and military officials were killed and 10,000 civilians were arrested (Tiananmen Square Protests, 2019). It has been over 30 years since the incident yet since then Canadian politicians have continued to feel the need to defend the human rights of those in China.

Hong Kong appears as the best chance for democratic values to spread to the rest of China. Ultimately China is one country hosting two systems of government which allow for both socialism and capitalism to coexist in the country. Hong Kong contrasts to the rest of mainland China through its position on free trade and less government interference (Bajpai, 2020). If Hong Kong’s influence grows in the country it could mean stronger diplomatic relations long term between Canada and China.

Economic Relations

To get a visual overview of the dramatic way that trade has increased between the two countries, two tables from the last 50 years are provided. The first showing the level of Canadian imports from china and the second is the level of Canadian exports to China. As you can see Canadian exports from 2019 are about a third of what imports were at the time. It also wasn’t until 2003 that the level of exchanges began to double.

In 2016 the Trans-Pacific Partnership was a proposed trade agreement that involved twelve countries boarding the pacific coast. Some of participants include Vietnam, Japan, Mexico, Singapore and Canada. The agreement would remove tariffs and encourage strong lasting trade relations between the twelve countries. After President Obama pushed to finalize the agreement, in 2017 the US withdrew from the agreement after President Trump’s election because he felt their economy and independence would be undermined and exploited by the deal (Miller, 2016). Once the US chose to not participate in the agreement many countries were left discouraged at first, although the agreement was revised and became what is known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. For Canada, this agreement allows greater market access to countries like Vietnam and Japan which were previously separated due to high tariffs. Canada will save an estimated 428 million dollars a year on tariffs alone. Ultimately this makes it easy for small to mid sized businesses to increase their revenues from the Asia Pacific region (CPTTP Benefits for Canada, 2019). Shortly after this agreement solidified a new complex issue arose for Canada’s foreign relations.

In 2018 China was Canada’s largest importer bringing in billions of dollars into the economy. Within the same year this stable relationship would come into question. In December Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Canada for bank fraud. Meng Wanzhou is currently the CFO of Huawei, which is a communications company that currently has the strongest lead in developing world wide 5G technologies. Shortly after her arrest, China retaliated by detaining two Canadians, Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig who have been in China for over 500 days. Supposedly Meng Wanzhou is accused of using subsidiaries to evade U.S. sanctions against Iran. Currently in Vancouver hearings are being held to expedite her to the US where she will face her charges despite China’s threatening actions. China is viewing Canada as an accomplice to the US by assisting them in bringing down Huawei. The US has been very skeptical of Huawei and is slow to trust the Chinese company. They fear that the networks will not be secure enough and could easily allow for China to spy on the US.

Canada’s Position and Involvement in the South China Sea

Canada’s military involvement in the South China sea has been little to none despite being aware of the actions they are taking. Canada appears to be trapped in uncertainty. If they were to be aggressive and send in military naval ships how would this effect their currently unstable relationship with China? If they were to continue to sit on the side lines at least they could stay away from conflict, but how would it’s allies view this action? Would diplomatic relations with the US being to weaken? Technically Canada should be showing support towards its allies in trying to restrain the Chinese from expanding their territory and crossing international laws. The scenario of it all seems oddly familiar to the way the allies responded to Nazi Germany as they invaded Czechoslovakia by simply issuing multiple warnings. Not until they invaded Poland did the allies see it was a good time to engage Germany. At what point will Canada and the rest of the world put their foot down and say enough is enough?

If China does in fact secure these locations in the South China sea then it would put every single country using the trading route at a massive economic disadvantage. Canada could face great loses in its exports which could intern hurt any sized business from the energy industry to the agricultural industry. Even though the South China sea is over eleven thousand kilometres away, what happens there could even impact your family and community.

Predictions on the Consequences Canada will Face from a Power Shift

It’s impossible to accurately say what the world will look like if China became the next super power, especially in Canada. Despite the media’s opinions we can only speculate what economic, social, political and cultural changes will come about. My best guess is the most predominant differences we’ll notice will be the economic adjustments. If China did become a super power then it would likely be due to their occupation of the South China Sea and their new Belt and Road initiative which would give the country global dominance in the trade industry.

Like mentioned before, the effects of these events could increase the costs of many industries down to the small businesses in Canada. These inflated cost would be due to unavoidable Chinese restrictions and transportation fees.

I would recommend that Canada gets involved in the situation in the South China sea. This is not only because Canada has a duty to support it’s allies, but also because it would help discourage the Chinese from bullying the Philippians and Malaysia and let them know they can not get away with breaking international laws. Getting involved doesn't necessarily mean to send in battleships and aircraft carriers. Their is still plenty of room for negotiation and deals to be made with the surrounding nations in the South China sea. I believe the more countries that step up, regardless of the possible dangers, the less likely will we see more extreme action taken by China.

References

Mahoney, J., Lilwall, S. (2009, December 3). A Chronology of Canada-China Relations. The Globe and Mail. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/a-chronology-of-canada-china-relations/article4294370/

Tiananmen Square Protests. (2019, May 31). History. https://www.history.com/topics/china/tiananmen-square

Bajpai, P. (2020, June 2). Hong Kong vs. China: Whats the Difference? Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121814/hong-kong-vs-china-understand-differences.asp

Miller, S.A. (2016, June 28). Trump Vows to Cancel Asia Trade Deal as President — and puts NAFTA on Notice. The Washington Times. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jun/28/donald-trump-vows-to-cancel-trans-pacific-partners/

CPTTP Benefits for Canada. (2019, February 7). Government of Canada. https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/benefits-avantages.aspx?lang=eng