Non-consensus and right

Warren Buffet, talking about investment decisions with big pay-offs, mentions that the decisions need to be ‘non-consensus and right’.

Peter Thiel, in his book Zero to One, phrases this slightly differently by asking “What is the thing that you believe is true that many others disagree with you on?”

If a decision is consensus, as in most people make that decision, then there is no room to stand out and have an outsized win. Hence, the need to be non-consensus.

If a decision is wrong, well, there’s no chance of a win, let alone an outsized one. Hence, the need to be right.

The issue with non-consensus is that most of the time what has consensus is what is right.

So, just focus on being right.

The non-consensus happens occasionally, and when it does, you have an outsized win.

Don’t chase non-consensus.