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Forecasts Without Foundation: The Ethics (and Law) of the Fear Industry
Don’t waste your thoughts, time, and money on fortune-telling
The future is uncertain – and precisely for this reason, highly attractive for those who present themselves as visionaries, warners, or insiders. We encounter them daily on the internet: people who claim with apocalyptic seriousness that Apple will soon go bankrupt, Europe is heading for collapse, or the United States is on the brink of civil war.
The range is enormous – the evidence usually sparse to non-existent. What appears as “opinion” feels like certainty. And therein lies the problem.
For forecasts are not harmless. They influence decisions, fears, markets, political moods. Those who spread them without a solid foundation bear responsibility – ethically, perhaps even legally.
This essay examines the phenomenon of speculative forecasts from an ethical and legal perspective: What is at stake when people gain power over the present with supposed knowledge of the future?
1. What is a forecast – and what is not?
Not every conjecture about the future is a forecast in the strict sense. Scientifically grounded forecasts are based on models, data, scenarios, and…
