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Logical Fallacies and Statistical Anomalies Trick You Into Believing Untrue Things

No, Nicolas Cage isn’t trying to drown you.

René F. Najera, MPH, DrPH
Sharing Science
6 min readJan 17, 2025

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Outdoor pool surrounded by lush tropical greenery, with wooden lounge chairs, striped towels, and umbrellas on a wooden deck. A relaxing, sunny retreat with a vibrant, natural backdrop.
Do you see Nic Cage anywhere? (Image via Unsplash+)

Someone posted an interesting statistic the other day: the Baltimore Ravens won their 2001 Super Bowl with a 28-year-old quarterback (Trent Dilfer). Twelve years later, they won again with another 28-year-old quarterback (Joe Flacco). This season, twelve years after the 2013 Super Bowl, they’re playing with a 28-year-old quarterback (Lamar Jackson). What are the odds?

Bar chart showing the distribution of starting quarterback ages in the NFL. The chart has age on the x-axis, ranging from 23 to 42 years, and frequency on the y-axis. The most common age range is between 27 and 29, peaking at 7 quarterbacks at age 28. Frequency decreases toward the younger and older ends of the age spectrum.

The odds are pretty good, actually. As you can see in the chart above, the median age of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks is 29.5, and the average is 30.6. The median value tells us that half of the quarterbacks who won a Super Bowl were in their 20s. The others were in their 30s, with the exception of Tom Brady, who won two championships in his 40s. (If anything, there’s also a bias here where several quarterbacks won multiple championships, so the ages in the data are not independent.)

This meme about Baltimore is a prime example of the “Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy,” where our brains paint a target around random clusters in data and claim we hit a…

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Observations and analysis from scientists on biology, health, and how we live and interact with our natural world.

René F. Najera, MPH, DrPH
René F. Najera, MPH, DrPH

Written by René F. Najera, MPH, DrPH

DrPH in Epidemiology. Public Health Instructor. Father. Husband. "All around great guy." https://linktr.ee/rene.najera

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