A Determinate Indeterminacy
The future is, or isn’t exactly what we think it is.
The year is 1862.
The Union Pacific Company is incorporated under congress by the Pacific Railroad Act. America will at last be connected by rail, from sea to shining sea. With the recent devastation of the civil war, America sought an ambitious goal. Make America Great Again. How were they going to do such a thing? — Connect one of the largest countries in the world with this darling, coal eating machine, called the railway. Something unheard of, or unimaginable outside of the United States at the time.
Since its inception, the United States was an ambitious little experiment. Defying the most powerful empire in the world, to defend the new and fragile of an (almost) complete freedom was revolutionary and unthinkable. Though, for those founding fathers, the future looked bright and the plan of action was clear. So they took action, and that action lets me write this article today.
All of this patriotic rambling is not to embolden my fellow Americans but to take a lesson from history, of the start of one of the better periods of the brief history of this nation. For a better part of this history of this nation, we have been an optimistic people. Although each nation has its own unique spirit, that of the United States is one of my own experience and knowledge and best exemplifies this ambition for a better future.
People from far and wide came to the United States in search of a better, life. A positive life. Upon coming through Ellis Island people were aware that if they worked hard, were good people, and used their wits they could get ahead in life. This was a world view quite unique to the US and was in my opinion a great contributor to why this country has succeeded.
This world view trickled up into government and down into our children and fostered an unmistakable spirit.
The futures is ours for the taking. The future is at the mercy of our actions. And the future is bright.
The lecture this piece is based on, calls this worldview a positive-determinate one. That lecture is of the work of the great Peter Thiel, (And brilliantly transcribed by Blake Masters) whose thoughts and ideas inspired me to write this piece. I highly encourage you read that in addition to this piece.
A Step Back
Let’s talk about worldviews.
The concept of a worldview tends to make a lot of sense. You have a certain set of beliefs and values that you ascribe to be your best definition of the world around you. Some tend to be regarded as the masses as right and moral and others as evil and backward.
For the most part, I agree that people can hold worldviews, but I find it hard to articulate a complete picture of what I think about certain subjects. I find it more interesting to observe the habits and actions of people. They tend to better reveal their worldview’s. One of the most prevalent belief systems that affect people on a day to day basis are luck and chance.
I am not denying that these don’t exist, yet I feel that we attribute too much of our worldview and surroundings to luck and chance. Some of this is warranted, such as how I am very lucky to win the birth lottery of being born into a family in the United States of America. I recognize that I did no action to deserve this yet it was given to me, that is luck.
Where the line begins to blur is when things involving other people or organizations come into play. I’ll be using the tech industry as my basis for examples because it is the world I am most familiar with.
A Story
Emma walks into a VC pitch meeting.
She stands in front of the mahogany long table lined with a slew of eager faced middle aged men fidgeting to answer emails and slack messages. These are the VC’s in question.
She goes through her pitch about making airfare affordable to the masses. No more price gouging, fees, or old airplanes. Aviato will open the world to all while tying it even closer together.
Outside of the boardroom, her team of diligent engineers, salespeople, and designers are getting ready to push Aviato v2.0 the next week, but they desperately need funding to continue.
The stage is set.
Assuming the indeterminate worldview, one in which the world is largely governed by luck and the whim of chaos, her pitch is done and her actions no longer influence her company’s situation. Their thirst for funding is at the helm of the managing partner, Marc L. Jackson.
This tends to be a rather common worldview nowadays, even though I oversimplified a few things, I find time and time again people think the world revolves around chance. $FB’s rise to the top was lucky, or you were lucky to get the job.
While you may have been lucky to have had the privileged resources to allow you to get the degree, that helped you get your job. You getting the job was not a matter of luck, it was your skills and experience, and your success in successfully conveying those to the interviewer to where you got hired.
Facebook did not magically rise to the top of the tech sector in public markets because it was lucky. It did it because Mark and every single other amazingly talented individual at Facebook worked together as a team, with clear goals and plans to win in their market. And because they are good, they won and won big.
You make your own luck.
I tend to fall into this belief system because I believe people’s actions and will can ultimately triumph over chaos. Going back to Emma and the pitch meeting, I feel that Emma’s actions did have an effect after the meeting. When Mark L. Jackson goes to his office to make the decision he’s weighing her actions and whether those make sense with his experience and ideas. She made the pitch good, the company good (with her team!), and she is responsible for the funding.
Not the whim of the universe, and “luck”.
This is definitely controversial, and I still personally believe some factors are out of my control, but not all and certainly not as many as most people believe now.
A Ripple Effect
This indeterminate way of thinking, where luck takes command tends to devalue people’s efforts in favor of settling for excuses of luck.
Hell, I might be completely wrong and luck rules over most of the world and our actions really don’t mean much. But at least the mindset that what you do does have weight tends to yield amazing results.
I think my school motto puts it best.
Possunt Quia Posse Videntur
They can because they think they can.
This breeds achievement and innovation. I started this piece with the anecdote to the early times of the US not because I love America, (Though I do) but because it serves as a reminder of a time when a nation was fearless and not dissuaded by luck. They made their own luck.
Was it lucky that we had the right entrepreneur to kick off the automotive revolution? Maybe.
I’m pretty sure every other nation had talented, smart, risk-taking entrepreneurs who would jump at the same opportunity, but they didn’t have the same free global trade, supply chains, and positive determinate outlook of the future that let them make their own luck.
This positive determinate outlook empowers people to do more. I can go ask the girl at the bar for her number because I know I have two legs, a mouth, and something worth saying. It won’t be lucky that she talks to me, and we go on a date the next week, but that I walked up to her, and she was witty and smart. But it is chance that we were in the same bar, but it really doesn’t matter because we’re in the same bar. And that’s that.
When the future is unclear and powered by luck you are at the whim of the world to do your actions and by that logic, less inclined to challenge such an overarching entity like the world, but to stay to the smaller things you still believe you can control.
A Step Forward
Let’s go back to positive determinacy.
Let’s make our own luck.
Let’s shed this notion that we have no power and that we are little pawns filled with water, wandering a puddled rock flying around the universe. However true it may be, it should not affect us.
Let’s.
Get lucky.
Daniel is the CEO & Co-Founder of Bond Labs, Inc. Bond connects you with the people you should know and will be introducing you to great people later this year.
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