Trump is Guilty! (And Criminal Presidents Are More Common Than You’d Think)
As we all know, former US President Donald Trump is now a convicted felon. This is the first time in American history that a former president has been convicted of a crime and comes while said former president is the presumptive nominee for a major party less than six months before the election.
While this is a first for America, former leaders being convicted of crimes is nothing new around the world. Check out this list of former heads of state around the world who have been imprisoned — I counted 180 names on there since 2000.
In today’s piece, we’ll talk through examples of when previous leaders have committed (or been punished) for crimes, how Trump’s verdict is impacting the voting public, and how we as Americans need to move forward.
WHAT OTHER EXAMPLES CAN SHOW US
So, what happens when a world leader is accused of a crime? Usually, either nothing happens to them, or they’re punished after their political career has already ended. Or it might a coup or a war in which the leaders on the losing side are overthrown or executed. On this list, corruption was the most common reason that a former leader was later imprisoned (94 instances), followed closely by them being overthrown (85 instances.)
Each of those cases, and many worth studying that aren’t on the list, have unique histories and circumstances that no one article could do justice. A former leader with an active career and a conviction is pretty rare, so finding comparisons for Trump’s situation is hard. If you know other cases you think are worth comparing to Trump’s, leave a comment about them below! For today, let’s talk through two examples of a leader being punished that could shed some insight on the present moment.
RICHARD NIXON (UNITED STATES, 1974)
While Nixon did not appear on that list I provided earlier, his case is the next most similar case in American history to our current situation. As we all remember, Nixon was pushed to resign after ordering a break-in at the Watergate hotel to interfere with the 1972 election. Sound familiar?
One of the biggest differences between Nixon’s case and Trump’s is that public opinion actually shifted based on new information at that time. While Trump’s approval has remained consistent throughout an insane number of self-inflicted scandals, Nixon’s went from 60% to 20% based on what voters learned about him.
Holding powerful people accountable, though, still risks causing unrest and division. Gerald Ford justified his choice to offer Nixon a blanket pardon by arguing that a trial would have polarized the public. Idk man, they seemed pretty united according to that graph. While Ford lost his next election, this presented only a temporary setback for Nixon’s conservative political agenda, as Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980 began twelve consecutive years of Republican presidencies and a massive shift of both parties to the right.
LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA (BRAZIL, 2018-PRESENT)
There is one world leader who was serving in prison as recently as three years ago. Brazil’s current and former President, known popularly as “Lula”, served two terms in office before being jailed on charges of corruption in 2018. In office, he’d lifted thousands of Brazilians out of poverty through pro-worker policies and became “the most popular politician on earth” at the time he left office.
However, after a corruption scandal involving Lula, his successor Dilma Rousseff, and many other Workers’ Party politicians destroyed their reputation, the path was paved for Jair Bolsonaro to take power. While Lula was released in 2019 after the country’s Supreme Court found bias in how his trial was handled. The question remained: would Lula retain his popularity despite having been imprisoned?
While not all of his previous support came back, Brazilians ultimately sided with his pro-worker and pro-environment movement and gave Lula a third term. By a razor-thin 51%-49% margin, they rejected then-President Bolsonaro, a fascist further-right than Trump who had spent his presidency destroying the Amazon rainforest, letting hundreds of thousands of Brazilians die from COVID, and committing dozens of flagrant human rights violations.
For better or worse, Lula was able to overcome his previous imprisonment and win a tight election — ultimately, Brazilians chose the best option for their country, even considering his past scandals. We’ll get into this, but it doesn’t surprise me that Trump’s voters (albeit mistakenly) believe they’re doing the same.
NOW WHAT?
All eyes are now on how our political and legal system will handle Trump’s case. While Trump’s charges in theory carry up to a 4-year maximum jail sentence, it is rare for non-violent offenders to go to prison on their first conviction. Judge Juan Merchan did by all (reasonable) accounts an admirable job of maintaining impartiality in his court, making rulings that favored the defense and prosecution when necessary and avoided jailing Trump for legal violations of his gag order, even when he could have done so.
Sentencing is scheduled for July 11th, which is just days before the Republican National Convention. I don’t admire Judge Marchan’s job in the slightest, as to what extent Trump will be held accountable is yet to be seen will cause passion outcry from half or all of the engaged public no matter what. Trump knows that and he will continue to exploit it no matter what his punishment is.
I can sense that there’s one question everyone here still has, so let’s address…
WHAT WILL THIS DO FOR THE ELECTION?
I’ve avoided making 2024 election predictions on here because anyone who follows American politics is reading too many of those and not enough content that invites them to think critically about topics affecting people’s lives. That said, a convicted criminal running for president is a new occurrence, so let’s talk about how it might go.
One thing polls have made clear is that Trump’s base isn’t going anywhere. While 10% of Republican voters said his conviction would make them less likely to vote for Trump, 34% said it would make them more likely to, and 55% said it didn’t make a difference. After all, these voters were not swayed when Trump was held liable for sexual assault, or encouraged an insurrection, or said other untold bigoted things on the campaign trail. For some of his most ardent supporters, a conviction proves that he (as their messiah) is being persecuted for trying to save a wicked America.
This is also backed up by the fact that Trump raised over $50 million right after the verdict was announced. World leaders getting jailed because they have agendas that powerful people don’t like is something that happens, and it’s surprisingly hard for the average person to tell the difference between a criminal president and a “criminal” president. Trump is so confident he can continue preying on these people that he almost seems to want to get caught.
However, there’s some sign that support could slip in demographics where Trump has previously made gains. 27% of black Trump supporters and 21% of young Trump supporters said they would vote for Biden in the event of a conviction, compared with only 5% and 2% of their white and over 65 counterparts respectively. Meanwhile, majorities of independents polled said that the verdict was correct and that Trump should end his campaign, especially voters who had unfavorable views of both candidates.
It’s important to remember though, that it’s early. Polls can and will change a number of times prior to November and can in either direction. After all, 2016 seemed to be a guaranteed Hillary Clinton win, until it wasn’t. 2022 was supposed to be a red wave year, until it wasn’t. Stressing yourself out too much over these polls won’t get you any closer to knowing what’s going to happen or prepare you for either outcome.
SO WHAT?
There is a very real possibility that a convicted felon could become President of the United States — which would be scary, but maybe not as unthinkable as we want to believe. Bad people getting into power is nothing new and them committing crimes while obtaining or wielding their power is also nothing new. If anything, it surprises me more that it took this long for this to happen in America.
I believe it’s also important to remember that Trump was a corrupt fascist demagogue before his conviction and is one now. We’ve known for years that he paid off porn star Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about his affair to influence the 2016 election and that he falsely labeled reimbursement payments to Michael Cohen as “legal fees” to do it, which was what this trial proved. His awfulness as a past and potential President was never in question based on the outcome of his trial, as his innocence and saintliness was clearly never in question for his supporters either.
I’ll leave you with the same key point I’ve made in every piece on here so far — we have to demand better of our political leaders. Chances are, if you’re reading this, it’s not your fault that Trump has gotten where he has — but it is your responsibility to stop him now. We’re responsible not only for voting him out of office but ensuring that we elect leaders who will actually help people moving forward. Trump built a movement and maintained that movement because the status quo he railed against has real problems that leaders up and down the ballot will need to address. If they don’t, we’ll continue this cycle past the point of no return.
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