The Path
The primary elections would be an agonizing process of weeding-out. For the first two months of primaries and caucuses, the race could not be won — but it could be lost.
Our StoryMap summarizes the initial jockeying between candidates during the early parts of the election cycle.
In our initial description of the candidates, we ranked them in terms of their ideologies. More than 20 Republican and Democratic candidates put themselves forward as potential candidates, but by the time the Iowa caucus rolled around, many of them had dropped out. Poor fundraising, a lack of a base and the dreaded relegation to the “undercard” debate were often the reason for a candidate throwing in the towel.
Presidential Race Status: January, Pre-Iowa Caucus
The Iowa caucus would turn into a something of a bloodbath, as the social conservative lane cannibalized itself. Martin O’Malley was crushed in the caucus, turning the Democratic race into a two-person battle. For Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, they were now playing the long game.
Presidential Race Status: February, Post-Iowa, Pre-New Hampshire
If Iowa helped weed out socially conservative Republicans, New Hampshire would helped weed out the moderate ones. For Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Jim Gilmore and John Kasich, this was a do-or-die state. Christie and Gilmore saw their campaigns end, while Bush and Kasich resolved to do battle again in South Carolina. Meanwhile, Sanders trounced Clinton in the Granite State.
Presidential Race Status: February, Post-New Hampshire, Pre-South Carolina
By now the Republican race had become a five-man race, with Trump handily in front. In spite of Sanders’ strong New Hampshire performance, he would have to face Clinton in states that favored her: Las Vegas and South Carolina. Clinton won both of those contests, but they by no means concluded the Democratic race. Bush saw his presidential hopes end when he finished a distant fourth in the South Carolina primary, leaving Kasich as the only governor in the race.
