Survivor S40: Analyzing the Tribes

Red vs Blue

OBVIOUS SEASON 40 TRIBE SPOILERS AHEAD!!!!

Also Credit to Martin Holmes and Chris Stotts for the potential leaked logo.

Thanks to Inside Survivor’s Martin Holmes, we now have the full picture of what the season 40 tribes will look like. We also got confirmation that the season’s subtitle will be Winners at War. The subtitle for this season was never going to matter but all in all, it’s good enough that people won’t lose time making jokes about it.

The more interesting reveal from yesterday was finally getting to know how the winners would be split up. These are the two starting tribes.

Blue Tribe

Amber Brkich

Kim Spradlin

Sandra Diaz-Twine

Sarah Lacina

Sophie Clarke

Nick Wilson

Tony Vlachos

Tyson Apostol

Wendell Holland

Yul Kwon

Red Tribe

Danni Boatwright

Denise Stapley

Michele Fitzgerald

Natalie Anderson

Parvati Shallow

Adam Klein

Ben Driebergen

Ethan Zohn

Rob Mariano

Wendell Holland

It should be noted that Holmes has stated that the colors might be reversed and he has not gotten full confirmation of that but he is certain that the configurations are correct.

Now that we know who will be playing with whom (at least for the premiere, before we go through one of the likely 15 swaps Jeff has planned), let’s take some time and analyze both tribes and how the early game might play out.

Challenge Skills

Anytime we talk about tribes, the first thing my mind goes to is: which tribe looks more dominant in challenges?

To get a clearer picture and avoid falling into my eye test bias right away, I went straight to True Dork Times. Their player page has the in-depth challenge information for all players and their seasons. I took that information and compared the tribes on a numerical basis. It should be noted that I made a few changes to how the records were calculated. True Dork Times counts competitions players sat out of as part of their totals but don’t count wins they sat out of as wins, I discarded any competition a player sat out of, win or lose. They also count 2nd place as half a win, which is definitely more correct than not, but I counted any second-place finish as a “win” because that means the tribe either received a reward or did not attend tribal council (a win in any player’s book).

With the numbers strictly speaking, the Blue tribe has won 102 of 171 tribe challenges they have competed in for a 59.65% winning percentage. They have won 19 individual challenges out of 118 attempt, for a 16.10% winning percentage.

Their numbers are bolstered by Wendell, Yul, Tyson and Sarah, all of whom have won over 60% of the tribe challenges they have competed in. Nobody on either tribe comes close to matching Wendell’s 11–13 record or Yul’s nearly identical 11–14.

In terms of individual challenges, the tribe is headlined by Kim’s solid One World performance of 5 wins in 12 challenges. She is backed up by Sophie, who mustered 3 wins in 9 attempts, including a clutch immunity win over Ozzy, and Tyson who has 4 individual wins across 3 seasons in 12 attempts.

Over on the Red tribe, we have very similar 104 tribe challenge wins across 187 attempts. That means that have won 55.61% of the tribe challenges they have competed in. Michele, Danni and Jeremy are the players who most help their tribe’s record, all of them having a winning percentage of 69% or higher (nice). Denise’s 3 tribe challenge wins, the lowest among season 40 castaway, is easily what brings their record down.

Where the Red tribe’s numbers look superior to their opponents is in individual challenge wins, counting 30 wins in 133 challenges for a winning percentage of 22.56%. Boston Rob accounts for 1/3rd of the Red tribe’s individual wins as he has 10 under his belt. Parvati and Michele make up another third with 6 and 4 wins respectively.

Both tribes have players who won 0 individual challenges. The Blue tribe has Sandra, Sarah and Yul (who had to contend with prime Ozzy over the course of his entire season). The Red tribe has Ben.

Looking strictly at the numbers, the Blue tribe has the advantage in team competition. That’s where you bring in the eye test to see if what we’ve watched over the past 38 seasons will agree with what the numbers are telling us.

On the Blue tribe, they are definitely helped by having Kim. She might be the strongest woman of the season in terms of all-around challenge skills. Sophie was no slouch either, as the aforementioned Ozzy defeat was impressive. Sarah has a good team record but has not been able to translate that into individual victories. Either way, she is not somebody who is going to drag her tribe down. Amber should be fine as well. The obvious challenge liability among the Blue tribe women will be Sandra.

The Red tribe seems stacked with highly capable women. Both Danni and Denise will obliterate Sandra in the “older women challenge competitors” category. Natalie might be the fittest contestant on the season, man or woman. Michele has proven herself both during tribe challenges and individually. And obviously, Parvati has the track record to back up her assumed challenge skills.

It’s clear to me that looking at the women of both tribes, the Red tribe has a fairly large advantage over the Blue tribe. But that’s only half the equation, what about the men?

Nick did not have a great outing in terms of tribe competitions on David vs Goliath, but he was also saddled with the worst swap tribe, potentially of any season 40 competitor. When it came down to it, he turned it on in the individual portion and turned in some clutch victories to seal his win. Tyson claims to now be out of shape but I don’t believe him. Physically, he is going to be one of the best all-around performers of the season and he’s not bad at puzzles either. His height can also be an advantage in certain challenges. Wendell and Yul are both well-rounded, stellar players who can do almost any task demanded of them. While Tony hasn’t demonstrated advanced challenge skills, he isn’t a total disaster either (except at puzzles but this tribe has plenty of puzzle solvers).

Over on the Blue tribe, Jeremy will rival Tyson as the most physically capable player. I would count Boston Rob in here as well but he might be depleted from spending season 39 on an island. That said, Boston Rob has proven to be a phenomenal challenge performer both physically and mentally. Ethan is older but remains in good shape. He won’t make the tribe lag behind. My two worries are Ben and Adam. Neither are particularly athletic or strong. Ben struggled during his season when it came to individual immunities and while you might expect Adam to be great at puzzles, it will always stand out to me that Jay Starret blew everyone out of the water in a puzzle immunity challenge. If the Red tribe is held back by anybody, I fear it will be because of Adam and Ben.

To me, the Blue tribe definitely has an advantage when it comes to the men. It’s just a matter of whether the advantage is sizable enough to overcome the deficit they have with their women. I think that it isn’t and that Red tribe’s men will do well enough to keep pace with Blue tribe’s. I think Red has too many strong women to be considered the weaker of the two tribes at the outset.

That said, the difference to me seems minimal. I think that production did a fantastic job of splitting these two sides in terms of challenge skills. Now comes the question: how did they do in splitting them up based on pre-existing relationships? It’s time to explore these tribe dynamics.

Tribe Dynamics

We’ll start with the Blue tribe. There are some immediately obvious connections, being:

• Tyson and Sandra
• Tony and Sandra
• Sarah and Tony
• Sarah and Sandra

Those are players who have already shared parts of a season on the same tribe. Tyson and Sandra are people you would figure to be on good terms. They got along on the Villains tribe as both were close to Boston Rob. That’s a pretty natural duo you could see form early on because the familiarity will be there.

Sandra and the two Cagayan players might be a different story. She and Tony tried to work together during Game Changers but Tony couldn’t help himself from being Tony. It leads to Sandra turning on her fellow winner and sending home 6 days into the game. With Sarah, it’s almost the opposite story. Sarah was part of the majority who voted Sandra out for the first time in 3 seasons. There wasn’t much shown between them and we have no indication to think they are close nowadays.

The Tony and Sandra dynamic will be the most interesting. Tony obviously betrayed Sarah back in Cagayan. She was hurt by this. But she also credits Tony’s willingness to betray anybody and go against his cop background as the reason for her Game Changers win. It sounds to me like she understood why Tony played the way he did and that makes me believe there is a bond that can be mended there. Tony is going to be in a tough spot on this tribe so he will need Sarah’s help if he hopes to make his way through the early parts of the game.

Then you have less obvious bonds because they don’t come from seasons we have previously seen.

• Amber and Tyson
• Tyson and Kim
• Tyson and Sophie
• Amber and Sandra

Because Tyson and Rob are close real-life friends, it stands to reason that Tyson, at the very least, is acquainted with Amber. We all know that Rob is going to want someone to protect Ambuh and the obvious choice here will be Tyson. The difference between now and All-Stars is that Tyson knows Rob is willing to cut anybody’s throats and he can plan for that in the long game. For the beginning, it will make perfect sense for these two to align.

Similarly, Sandra and Amber have a connection through Rob from Heroes vs Villains. Sandra might have been Rob’s closest friend on that tribe and they have interacted many times since. This is another logical friendship that should become an alliance early on. Slot in Tyson, who is obviously connected to both, and you have the beginning of an alliance that might run the Blue tribe.

You’ll find that Tyson reoccurs a lot in this segment because to me, he is the most well-connected of any player on this season. His connection to Kim is through a poker game they played for a television show. The game consisted of those two, Boston Rob and Jeremy, who have been sent to the other tribe, and a poker pro. This is the video from the event if you’ve never seen it.

Next is the Tyson and Sophie connection. This one isn’t huge but it does count. Both have been regulars in the Rob has a Podcast universe, Tyson more so than Sophie but both have multiple appearances on the main Survivor podcast. In fact, both were present for the “Roast of Rob Cesternino” podcast in which Tyson roasted Sophie by comparing her to Princess Fiona from Shrek… let’s hope she forgot that part of the podcast. On a tribe where Sophie might seem a little isolated, this connection is something she will likely look to cash in to gain a little bit of security in the early going.

That leaves Nick, Wendell and Yul as the player on Blue who have no obvious connection. Being back-to-back winners and both part of the “new school”, it’s easy to imagine a world in which Nick and Wendell partner up. Nick is also good friends with Davie who has been around Wendell from social media pictures which leads me to think they’ve at least talked before. Wendell also has some RHAP connections from having been at the most recent live Know-it-Alls (which neither Sophie or Tyson attended).

All of this makes Yul the fish out of water on this tribe. Aside from Sandra, he is the only player on the Blue tribe to take part in a season without the modern hidden immunity idol (no God idol to help him through the game this time around). He’s never played after his original season, 13 years ago, and has largely disappeared from the Survivor universe. Hell, he looked uncomfortable being part of this universe when he was on the show, which is partially why I’m surprised he agreed to this. I am downright giddy for his reaction to Tyson, a player he 100% has no knowledge about and will absolutely be baffled by his existence. “This guy is practically my age? What is he about? How did he win Survivor?” I hope he survives to meet Parvati in the game (the Edge does not count) because that is the one connection Yul has to anybody on this season. He will likely be shocked to find out Parvati became a Survivor winner because the odds are only 50/50 that he actively is aware that she won going into the season.

Of course, all of this assumes that Tony is able to stay calm and that Sandra agrees to work with him on the side. If not, throw everything away and there is a very obvious first boot target. One that Tyson has derided many times over his RHAP appearances.

At the outset, I see the Blue tribe being controlled by Tyson’s connections. I am very confident that a Tyson/Amber/Sandra trio will be agreed upon day one. It makes sense for them to grab Kim and pull her in too. That’s an alliance of three huge targets and Tyson, who honestly should be considered along the same lines. I don’t see Sophie, a very smart and logical player, bucking against an alliance like that (much like she went along with the Upolu Cult) and agreeing to join as the 5th.

I hate to say it but I think Yul might become a quick first target. Nobody really knows him. All people know is that he was smart, tactical and lead a minority alliance back from the brink of death to win the game. That’s not somebody you want to allow any breathing room. Wendell might be considered too because we saw the brilliance of social game in Ghost Island. I highly doubt Nick will be targeted too quickly because we know his game is messy and while he may have won, he didn’t exactly dominate his way to the end.

So that’s the Blue tribe. Now what about the Red tribe. Here are the immediately obvious connections:

• Boston Rob and Parvati
• Jeremy and Natalie
• Boston Rob and Ethan

The marquee pair to watch for here is Rob and Parvati. We know that on the Villains tribe, they did not get along strategically. Parvati was coming off a good win in Micronesia and she was public enemy #1 for a lot of those villains, Rob included. Almost a decade later, they will be coming onto their season as two of the biggest targets. It wouldn’t make any sense for them to go against each other. They are better together than apart. I’m sure they both realize this but can they put their respective egos aside and work towards a common goal? It’ll be fun to watch.

A common trend for Rob’s connections on this tribe is that they are mostly people he has pissed off in the past. This is no different for Rob and the “pretty boy” Ethan. Back in All-Stars, Rob was obsessed with head hunting the winners and tarnishing any player considered legendary. It became especially personal with Ethan because previous to All-Stars, Ethan and Amber had dated. We all know who Amber is currently married to, so that played a huge part in Rob’s disdain for Ethan. I hope that years of maturing has helped Rob looked past all of this. Ethan would be a very solid ally for Rob and he will be looking for any familiarity after being away from the show for so long.

Then you have a much more friendly connection between Jeremy and Natalie. This one is a no-brainer and might actually hurt both of them. They never had a falling out on their original season and Jeremy’s downfall proved to be the catalyst for Natalie’s glorious victory. They speak highly of each other at any given opportunity and are clearly still good friends. They can’t be seen together for any length of time and have to go into this agreeing they are good and almost never speaking. Anything else will put a magnifying glass on their backs because everyone is aware of their kinship.

The Red tribe also has numerous subtle connections to highlight:

• Ethan and Parvati
• Jeremy and Rob
• Michele and Jeremy/Rob
• Adam and literally everyone on this cast except maybe Yul and Danni

It may not be obvious, but Ethan and Parvati have become good friends through the show. She was in a Stand up 2 Cancer commercial with him (and Boston Rob). Ethan appeared on her Survivor After-Show despite not making many Survivor related appearances. Parvati was at Ethan’s wedding. Between their friendship and sharing a connection to Boston Rob, it makes me think that these 3 could form something of a working relationship to get through the early game.

On top of having appeared in the televised poker game together, Boston Rob and Jeremy share a city. A Boston connection is stronger than a lot of other cities. You won’t find two Los Angeles castaways bonding solely because they both come from LA. If you’re from Boston, it’s just different. It helps that they are both very proud Bostonians and have displayed it for the public. When you consider that with Jeremy’s strategic preference to covering himself with meat shields, a Jeremy-Rob partnership seems very likely.

This is good for Rob because the initial assessment of these tribes seem to indicate that it was a bad draw for Rob. Of course they weren’t going to let him have Sandra, Tyson or his wife. Despite that, I see a realistic possibility that he strikes an alliance with Ethan/Parvati/Jeremy (who brings along Natalie) and forms a strong early alliance.

There is also a tenuous connection between Michele and the two Bostonians. While Michele is not from Boston (she’s still East Coast, she comes from New Jersey), she does reside in Boston. She also cited Parvati as the player she is most like during her Kaoh Rong press. That has always been a popular answer but Michele was a legitimate fan of Survivor and even commented on a Parvati Instagram picture before ever being cast for Survivor.

I jokingly threw in Adam because nobody has worked the Survivor charity function circuits quite like this man. He’s been at every charity event known to man since winning his season. He’s friends with international Survivor players. He’s played poker with Boston Rob. This guy has been working his social game since his season ended. He may not have any obvious connections but pretty much everybody will at least know who he is when they touch down on Fiji. That should give him time to figure out his own game plan and avoid being a first boot.

The players with no real connections are Denise, Danny and Ben. Denise stays in touch with the Survivor community, has made RHAP appearances and has appeared at charity functions. She doesn’t have any obvious friends on this cast but I can assume that she is friendly with a few of them through those appearances. Likewise, Ben has appeared at events and been on RHAP. His reputation as a crappy winner might also help him but it’s hard to say. This cast may just as well disrespect his win and not see him as deserving of his spot on the season.

Danni is the hardest one to peg. She did a few appearances here and there in the years following her win. Then she went back to living her life mostly away from the limelight of reality TV. In fact, it’s seemed pretty obvious for a while now that Probst hates Guatemala so I was shocked Danni was ever asked back for this season. Who will she be looking to ally with? Will she feel a kinship with Rob and Ethan because they are part of the “old school” era of Survivor? Will she look to form an all ladies’ alliance with Parvati, Michele and Denise (there is a definite feeling that a Black Widows 2.0 might be possible on this tribe)? I am very excited to see where she lands on this tribe.

Unlike Yul, while Danni has no connections, she doesn’t seem like a likely first target. It’s specifically why she should be targeted early, that kind of ability to blend into the walls is what got her the win in the first place, but this is a tribe with a lot of fiery personality. Danni sticking to background and minding her own business doesn’t seem like the type of player this tribe would target first.

Of course, all of this is purely conjecture. We still have more than half a year (and an entire season in between) before we really find out how this will play out. Still, getting to see the tribe divisions was yet another step in making this feel very real. There has been some news that came out about the season that had us down but the minute I saw those faces sorted by their tribes, I was fully back into this season. I can’t wait for what can only be an iconic premiere when we see all these legends again, my heart is palpitating at the thought of it.